Let's hope so Michael. There have IIRC been one or two other GFS op runs which have suggested something similar in FI, but not on a consistent basis. As you say, hopefully this might just be the start of a trend towards something better later in the month.

My concern is that if this hyper warm airmass over the eastern States does cross the Atlantic, it'll pick up excessive moisture, leading to excessively high dew points down the line 😟

FWIW, GFS has done the old MetO trick of creeping up run by run - it now has 40mph gusts here rather than low 30s. The new MetO model has been rock-solid throughout, and still has mid 40s (which will be enough to bring down small branches, cause problems at bootfairs, move trampolines, break weakened fences etc). The old MetO output still has mid 30s instead, around 10mph difference.

I still think there will be a lot of disgruntled folks later this morning and into the afternoon as the winds pick up! The MetO worded forecasts just said "breezy" right up 'til the last minute; this morning the wording has changed to "Becoming windy along the English Channel coast, especially Sussex and Kent coasts", which is a bit better but still doesn't convey just how windy it'll be across the rest of Kent and the SE!

GFS Op - current LP filling and out of the way to the north by Tue 19th. For most of the following week pressure is quite high over Britain though the south may be affected by shallow LP over France/Biscay. A trough appears N Ireland 995mb Sat 22nd but fills rapidly as it moves E, then a strong rise of pressure from the SW, 1020mb covering Britain from Mon 24th through to Mon 1st though with LP winding up in Biscay at the end of this. 

ECM - like GFS but the trough Sat 22nd is further N and moves NE past Scotland so pressure remains relatively high for the rest of Britain throughout

GEM - places the Sat 22nd trough over N England and deeper than above; also slower to build HP after it has passed through.

GEFS - temps regaining norm in S by Mon 17th (Scotland fairly close to norm already) then a period with temps close to or a little above norm through to Mon 24th with no more than fairly good ens agreement. After that a considerable divergence between ens members (see caveat above) - you can cherry-pick from 13C above norm to 5C below! Highest chances of rain, some quite heavy falls, in the S around Sat 22nd but some runs continue wet later on; in Scotland wettest in the next couple of days but then mostly dry.

Yes, looking at the recent model sequence over the last week or so,  I can't help getting the impression that we are beginning to endure one of those 'at arms length summers.  I do hope that it will not be the case.   GEM in particular, still wanting to bring back cold plunges towards the UK from the north west!

And in the end, gusts have been in the low 40s here, with 47 at Langdon and 43 at Manston catching the eye.

Full marks to the MetO's new modelling, no marks to its old modelling and half marks to GFS, which eventually got close but only 18 hours out!

This is true for Scotland but the weather in May was largely cool and wet in the South East, at least by recent standards.

We’re still running at a full 2.0c below normal for June:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Just to think this was the standard type of June the country would have experienced in the little ice age in the 1600’s

Must have been pretty darn miserable much of the time.

GFS Op - current LP as previously forecast to be out of the way by Tue 18th followed by HP settling over Britain through to Tue 2nd, albeit rather uncertainly as areas of LP come and go around the edges (1015mb Biscay Thu 20th, 995mb Faeroes Sat 22nd and Wed 26th, 1005mb Denmark Fri 28th, 1005mb SW Ireland Mon 1st)

ECM - rather like GFS though the HP is more soundly established - the LP on Sat 22nd is further N and that on Wed 26th stays well out in mid-Atlantic

GEM - compared to GFS, develops and retains the LP after Thu 20th close to S England for 3 or 4 days, but does not show LP over Faeroes until 26th, Scotland enjoying settled HP until then.

GEFS - becoming briefly warm in the S around Fri 21st but with some heavy rain likely, then back to norm with quite good ens agreement to Tue 25th after which temps are anybody's guess, but dry weather predominates (a few runs show occasional heavy bursts of rain in the SW). Temp profile for Scotland similar though the uncertainty starts earlier, but small amounts of rain likely at any time, least in NE.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

It’s an outlier (of course!) but certainly some form of warming trending now.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

A few consistent runs over the past 24-48 hrs so fingers crossed our current CET comparible to this March picks up closer to normal. 

The Op is a warm outlier early on. I posted the Mean which suggests we could be heading for a heatwave day 8/9 ish. Still plenty of time for it to go pear shaped though. 

Both develop high pressure right over the UK by t+208 then migrate it north to centre just to the north of the UK and bring in a slack easterly flow.

Not dissimilar to the broad set up we had in early summer 2018 - but I don't expect this to be as resilient, unfortunately (it's taking place about 5/6 weeks later, too)

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Even so if get warm to hot I can’t be overwhelm as it already damaged goods this year and no foundation for high temperatures due to muddy wet landscape plus daylight will draw back.  Santa Claus, arctic circle in Lapland got to 20C so they got dry ground and good summer not seen any rain yet.  I see app put low 20,s so better than nothing at low cold teen temps.  

GFS Op - High pressure coming and going over Britain for the next two weeks, all too often collapsing to leave Britain in a col between Atlantic and Scandinavia, pressure notably lower Sat 22nd, Wed 26th, Wed 3rd, and always the major threat of unsettled weather from shallow LPs over France.

ECM - has HP arriving on Wed 19th as per GFS, but then it sinks S-wards for a zonal W-ly until re-establishing on Mon 24th. In the last frame Thu 27th the HP moves E-wards as a shallow trough approaches Ireland.

GEM - close to GFS to end of run Thu 27th

GEFS - temps becoming norm or a little above (esp in N) to Wed 26th with good ens agreement, after which too uncertain to call. Rain probable in the S near Sat 22nd and also possible near Fri 28th (less on this date in the E), but in the N after initial rain, a dry period (extended in the NE),  otherwise moderate amounts on many days after 22nd. 

Well this mornings ECM produces another heatwave run. Temps in the 30s I  imagine by the end. Will the Met Office change their update today?

I won't be here but hope it stay warm to hot in July,  Ground should start drying up rest of this month hopefully and reduce the horrible lush weedy green to normal semi-parched landscape.

It's why I grinned the other week when someone moaned that it wouldn't get above 28 all summer! 30 is inevitable at some point, I'd say, and the EPS shows a ~10% chance of it next week. The median for London is 25 by then, and that median has been creeping up over the past few runs.

Frankly, as I'll be in London at the end of next week (using up hotel points), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 30. I have a knack of going on holiday to places when they're especially hot, it seems!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202406170000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London