GFS Op - pressure tends to be high over Scotland and low over France until Wed 29th but areas of LP develop and interrupt this pattern; 1005mb moving N up the E coast Wed 22nd; 990mb Rockall Sun 26th; 1015mb S England Tue 28th. After the 29th LP comes in from the Atlantic, at its deepest 990mb off SW Ireland, but persisting off W Britain to Wed 5th, while at the same time HP moves from N Norway to Germany.

ECM - not unlike GFS but the LP Wed 22nd is deeper and hangs around over Scotland for a couple of days before HP re-asserts itself. Of the other LPs, that on the 26th stays near Iceland and that on the 28th is delayed for a day, to the 29th.

GEFS - the spell of rain previously noted for the 22nd/23rd for the N is now more widespread, especially heavy in the E. Beyond that, temps are near norm, perhaps a little cooler briefly around Sat 25th, and, less certainly, somewhat warmer and sustained around Fri 31st; small amounts of rain in various runs at various times.

These reviews will be suspended until Wed 29th as I'm away - over to you, Saint.

Hope you have a nice break, David. 👍

🤣

I think not! My random posts are just ad hoc ramblings, lacking the deeper and more meteorological analysis you bring. They're as much to help me get a grasp of the output! 😊

This morning I check the models and ARPEGE keeps most of the country dry apart from a few showers, with the band of rain mostly kept out in the North Sea to the east. 

GFS looks somewhat wetter this week but settles things down after the weekend.

ECM also not too bad but potentially a rather threatening little centre of low pressure hanging around over the south next week.

UKMO looks the worst of the bunch by a mile.

Not really looking like a wash out though and I daresay that some fortunate areas will dodge much of the rain. 

They are all so unreliable both models and forecasts so best to check out from the window and if good then plan it for the day, if bad forget it just stay at home instead.  We went out to Albury Hall last BH weekend because we saw nice azure blue skies and few clouds despite horrible wet BH weekend forecasts/models showing.  We now go out when we see good weather from the window nowcasts.  

After that, some subtle changes to how things develop (from what was showing yesterday). There's still the fat Atlantic trough moving in - but each of GFS, ECM and GEM show higher pressure to our SW and NE extending more influence over the UK, so the dire period of weather that GFS especially had been forecasting is reined in somewhat - indeed, ECM and GEM particularly have some nice charts with high pressure dominant over the UK at times.

None are showing a prolonged dry spell but, after a soaking for many over the coming few days, it's looking like a mix of a settled couple of days followed by a day or two of crap, then settled again, then repeat.

We've had about 15 GEFS runs so far showing temperatures in the London area ~30C. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tracker/tmp2m?lat=51.5&lon=0&location=London&frange=a 

This morning's went up to ~33C.

We very well overdue for that so hope sooner than later to see those lovely warm to hot temps.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m-hd/252h.htm 

What a difference 6 hours make. No doubt be completely different in another few hours.

Not according to the operational GFS and ECM it isn’t. 

Indeed. GFS paints a particularly poor picture with no sign of anything more settled coming our way. Pretty much the whole of the rest of Europe is looking warm to hot , even Scandinavia, while the UK and Northern France are cool and wetter.  

Let hope they are completely right and we well over due for settled weather and overdue for a warm to hot spell as well as none was found over Spring season.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

It will go down in my book as some of the worst forecasting short term by models and forecasters alike for some years. I paid a lot of attention to detail late Sunday night and Monday morning. The forecast was for rain spreading in from the East affecting East Anglia (mainly the northern part) and then N.E and Northern England. No mention of it being particularly heavy. The South coast was predicted as being warm, dry and sunny on Tuesday then hazy sunshine on Wednesday with the risk of some showers later. So I booked my trip for some photography in the New Forest and Arne and set out at 5.00am. Tuesday morning was indeed glorious there but it became cloudy and cool after lunch and was raining by late afternoon. It then rained most of the night and pretty much all day Wednesday with a few short drier spells. Meanwhile, back in Essex the rain set in early and didn't stop. Tuesday and Wednesday giving my highest 24 hr total of the year - 30.5mm. ANd the BBC are still pretending it didn't happen in the south with tonight's graphic showing the rain and front moving north with the south of England being shown as dry. Frankly shocking.

Indeed Ally. Starting to feel bad vibes about this summer. It just cannot settle down for any length of time and with ground still saturated in many areas with a very high water table, I hope we are not staring down the barrel of 2007/2012 revisited. 

Could be a poor summer but normally the summer pattern doesn't kick in until late June.  So we have time but next week or so looks very poor. HLB is the issue. 

If anything, the outlook today is even worse than yesterday. As if we haven't had enough rain already this year! 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=317&y=143&run=0&type=1&runpara=0