June like weather. 

GFS Op - LP 990 mb replacing HP and in W Approaches by Mon 13th, moving around that area but becoming slack LP over France by Sat 18th. A few days in which N britain esp is dominated by LP, 995mb Shetland Tue 21st, before pressure rises and is centred over Britain 1030mb Sat 25th.

ECM 12z (0z not yet downloaded) - as GFS

GEFS - cooler from 13th (the dip less marked in Scotland) but rising again and becoming pleasantly mild/warm by Sat 25th (a few cold outliers spoil the party). Rain, in places heavy around Mon 13th esp in W, then small amounts anywhere at any time

Today for example it's showing a max of 19-20c when it's been 22-23c.

Tomorrow it could be up to 5c out, that's a massive difference at such short range. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=106&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

GFS Op - trough over Britain developing to 990mb Cornwall Tu 14th, drifting S to  France while HPs Atlantic and Scandinavia link up over Scotland Sun 19th (E-lies for England), this ridge weakening but still present until Sun 26th when LP begins to move down from Iceland reaching SW Approaches 985mb Mon 20th

ECM - like GFS but the trough moves E to Holland, not France, with the following rise in HP covering all Britain

GEFS - temps dropping (close) to norm Tue 14th (more of a steady decline in Scotland) this rising a little and staying there to Tue 27th, with good ens agreement to Tue 20th after which variation. Rain definite for 13th/14th looking showery throughout after that but very little in far NE.

GFS Op - LP near Cornwall, deepest 990mb Tue, slowly filling and moving to France by Sat 18th, continuing to affect England while ridge of HP establishes from Atlantic to Norway including Scotland, with generally warm source of air for Britain. This pattern persists to Sun 26th but with the addition of LP in Biscay, This links with LP moving down from Iceland to set up a trough with much cooler weather by Tue 28th (the end of the BH weekend, what did you expect?)

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP 'in Biscay' develops earlier, Wed 22nd, and while not at that stage affecting Britain directly, prevents HP developing as strongly over Scotland, and thus the LP over France extends further N into Britain.

GEFS - good agreement of ens members on temps a little above norm in S, notably above in N, to Tue 21st after which the mean continues at norm, op and control warmer but a number of cold outliers appearing. Rain in small to moderate amounts throughout, heaviest and most persistent in S esp SW, patchy in NE and dry at first there but  a few runs with sharply heavier falls later.

GFS Op - LP currently off Cornwall, filling, spreading out and moving to France by Sat 18th, still close enough to affect England. Some rise of pressure close to NW Scotland, rather uncertain and giving way to slack LP for all of Britain by Thu 23rd before pressure rises Sat 25th and links to that which has been sitting over Sweden. Pressure than falls over the Atlantic and Scandinavia while Britain just about hangs on to warm HP but this fades out Thu 30th.

ECM - 0z available ATM to Tue 21st similar to GFS but LP over France a touch further N; 12z after this (may edit later) shows an Atlantic LP moving close to Ireland and projecting a trough across Britain EDIT - now much more like GFS, Atlantic LP no longer shown but the 'slack LP' rather more in evidence, moving from France N-wards up the N Sea to W of Norway Fri 24th with pressure rise behind

GEFS - temps close to or a few degrees above norm until Thu 23rd with good ens agreement but a wide spread of predictions ensues, both above and below norm with op and control going in opposite directions in the S but in the N both cool. Rain intermittent but frequent and persisting in the S; in the N mainly dry to the 23rd, then small amounts from time to time.

GFS Op - depression near Cornwall drifting SE-wards and becoming a broad area of LP over France and Germany by Sat 18th. Northern Britain has higher pressure as a link between HP on the Atlantic and HP over Scandinavia develops and is stronger or weaker depending on competition from the LP over the near continent. LP more influential Wed 22nd and Tue 28th, HP at other times but final frame Fri 31st shows a breakdown of HP as a trough from Iceland joins the mix.

ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 23rd when the ridge of HP moves further S and sets up over the Channel while a N Atlantic LP moves in 1000mb Western Isles Sat 25th with a trough extending S over Britain. By this stage the near continent has high rather than low pressure, contrasting with GFS.

GEFS - In S England, temps near or a little above norm to Thu 23rd with good ens agreement; after this a spread of about +/- 5C soon develops either side of the norm with op and control in opposite directions; small amounts of rain at any time. In Scotland and N England (the boundary somewhere N of Birmingham), temps above average at first declining to norm by Thu 23rd, thereafter a wider spread of temps; almost no rain until 23rd, then again small amounts of rain frequent but with some runs showing occasional heavier falls.

GEM the pick of the FI bunch so far today, anchoring a high to our E/NE to bring in a SE'ly flow. GFS not terrible, with suggestions of a ridging AH. ECM not so good, with Atlantic lows making more progress over the UK.

I always lean toward the Law of Sod

GFS Op - LP near SW Britain moving to France and staying there for a week, extensive enough to affect England, and a ridge of HP off NW Scotland. The LP is often positioned further N than yesterday e.g. Thu 23rd 1005mb E Anglia. On Sun 26th this is replaced by a new LP from the Atlantic setting up 1000mb off SW Ireland slowly filling but with HP far off over Iceland. Something of a warm S-ly flow.

ECM - rather like GFS but on Thu 23rd Lp extends even further N to affect all of England. After that however the HP is much closer to NW Scotland 1030mb Rockall Sun 26th.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm, a little above at first, a little below in a week's time, and rain from time to time in most runs. In the N, starting rather more above norm but also cooling as the week progresses, and dry until the 23rd after which small amounts of rain intermittently. 

Here at +156

At +192

+229 (fronts moving in from the SW into frigid air)

daytime max Temps poor, too. 

GFS Op - the charts begin with a wide area of LP over France affecting S Britain while the N is under a weak ridge of HP extending from the SW. By Tue 21st the continental LP has linked to another LP from Iceland generating a trough for Britain with HP to E & W. After a brief re-set, LP near Iceland again becomes active, beginning to control British weather from Sun 26th and getting closer 1000mb Ireland Thu 30th and swirling around NW Britain to Sun 2nd while there is some rise of pressure in the S.

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 21st; the 'brief re-set' is instead a major rise of pressure 1025mb covering Britain Sat 25th, intensifying over Scotland Mon 27th with E/NE winds for England with a hint of something cold on the way from a Scandinavian LP.

GEFS - in the S, temps near norm, perhaps a little above at first, a little below near Fri 24th, mean then stays near norm but with a wide range of uncertainty, and small amounts of rain at any time. In the N, temps start above norm and steadily decline to norm shortly after 24th and then as above are uncertain; little rain until a major event Thu 23rd, and frequent small amounts after that

GFS is by far the worst. It starts to build pressure from the SW before spinning some weird low formed over central Europe NW'wards over us, then brings in a trough to sit to our west, which first spawns a spin-off that moves over us, before the main trough joins it. Miserable throughout FI with high pressure kept to our NE and SW.

GEM not much better at first, as it also has that little Euro-low, this time moving NNW'wards to centre over the eastern part of England. But GEM then ridges the AH quite strongly over the southern UK at least as we move into FI

ECM the pick of the models for a dry evolution - although not very warm. Yes, the same Euro-low bothers us in the first half of next week, but ECM then migrates the AH first to the west of the UK, then centres it over northern Scotland before inflating it to cover all of the UK. It does then retrogress it a bit back northwards, but almost all the UK (barring the far South, perhaps) remains under the influence of the high with an easterly drift.

What ever the unreliable rubbish models had been in this decade I still not seen a decent blue skies since last BH weekend.  Make you wonder the EV and Hybrid cars made matter worst than all fully petrolled cars in the past but still got lot of blue skies around.    If they are all unreliable best to ignore them and look from outside and plan your day ahead that the best you can do. as we had very lack of reliable forecast and models.

By 240 hrs, the anticyclone moves away and another one builds near the Azores. Meanwhile pressure remains lower to the north/north east of the UK and we move into a north westerly airflow. Through this time pressure remains reasonably high over the UK itself.

This would imply warm and fairly dry, then perhaps a cold front coming through, followed by cooler and fairly dry.

Time will tell if this is how it pans out!

GFS Op - the synoptics start with HP over N Britain and LP over France but from Tue 21st the HP moves to Scandinavia while continental LP links to that near Iceland with a mostly shallow trough persisting across Britain. At first this trough mostly affects S Britain but with HP declining over Norway and rising over Germany, affecting the N from about Wed 29th (quite focused 995mb Donegal Sun 2nd)

ECM - unlike GFS, the trough does not persist with pressure rising over Britain resulting in a ridge lying along the Channel and shallow LP (1000mb) near or S of Iceland by Mon 27th.

GEFS - not unlike yesterday. In the S and SW, temps a little above then a little below norm then back again from Mon 27th with the usual variation then setting in; small amount of rain in most runs on many days. In Scotland, N and E England, dry until a major rain event Mon 27th, then again frequent small amounts of rain; temps declining slowly to norm by the same date and staying there.

Meh.

Both ECM and GEM worse than yesterday, taking high pressure settling just to our north rather off the menu. GFS not as bad as it was but still not good.

GFS Op - LP for continent, HP ridge on SW-NE axis near/over Scotland, the latter weakening at times as troughs cross it (Wed 22nd 1005mb moving N over N Sea, Sun 26th 1010mb moving SE near Cornwall, Mon 3rd more general LP from France affecting S England)

ECM - similar to GFS but ridge of HP less established (LP Wed 22nd moves across Scotland; that on Sun 26th hangs around the NW for a day or two before filling)

GEFS - in the S, temp near norm at first, becoming warmer around the beginning of June and rain from time to time in various ens members; in the N temp declining to norm by 23rd, rain event at that time and smaller amounts thereafter (but dry in far NE)

It keeps the theme of spawning a very active low over Central Europe, then sending it northwards up the North Sea to give all the UK a soaking as we go through this week. The AH ridges quite far northwards - but to the west of the UK.

By the end of the week, it's planted a fat trough to the west of Ireland where it sits for days in end, spinning fronts over the UK from the SW.

It then inches the trough eastwards to sit over the UK through FI.

ECM and GEM both have the same initial evolution - but with stronger ridging of the AH. As the fat Atlantic trough moves in, they both split the ridged AH and place the northerly lobe to our NE - both then show the trough moving towards then over the UK (GEM has it less active in terms of fronts than the other two)

Not very encouraging over the next 10-14 days.