https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday's chart for the coming week. The current HP soon moves to Iceland with N/NE-ly winds affecting mainly the E coast of Britain before LP from the N Atlantic develops and runs swiftly SE to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th (not as deep or as close as yesterday). That LP then drifts N to Iceland, filling, and by Wed 1st a rise of pressure in W France brings in mild SW-ly veering W-ly winds. After a brief interruption on Sun 5th while a shallow LP slips past Cornwall, HP is back from the Azores. 

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 30th with another LP running SE to Cornwall followed by a general fall of pressure over France and on Thu 2nd the E-lies are back, but the source of air is SE Europe, not the Arctic

GEFS - current cool spell finishing sooner than shown yesterday, mean and ens members back to norm by Sat 27th, and mean staying there through to  Tue 7th well supported by ens members. From the 27th, small but noticeable amounts of rain in many but not all runs in the SE, rather more in N &W, from the 27th, but less than shown yesterday, very little before 27th.

I recently pulled the weather records for 1960-2023 from OpenMeteo for my location. I've loaded them up into an SQL Server so I should be able to do some sort of analysis on it.

Yes, it's nothing unusual for the time of year. Looking at rainfall and sunshine patterns in say western Scotland, you can clearly see how April-June is the sunniest and driest part of the year there, with rainfall picking up notably from July onward as the Atlantic awakens from its spring slumber. Eastern parts of the UK basically get their own version of California's May Grey/June Gloom, with dull chilly mornings often giving way to sunnier, warmer afternoons. It's the reason why I don't really rate June as a summer month here compared to July or August - the frequency of dull, chilly easterlies is simply too high, whereas in August it's unusual to have North Sea gloom because the sea temperatures are higher by then.

The thing is if it was “usual” our rainfall wouldn’t be nearly double the average and the sunshine totals half the average (here). I will be pleased to see Ulric’s data if that is possible but the spring has been notably cloudier and wetter than average so far and I suspect the prevalence of easterly weather or at least non-SWly weather plays its part in that. The temperatures have been around the long term average here but with a notable lack of cool clear nights. 

I would happily settle for the “usual” conditions for this time of the year as that is often very pleasant here. On a more positive note there are a few signs of a more anticylonic picture in FI in some of the latest runs. 

(Naturally all the usual caveats if feeling nice in the sunshine at this time of year apply).

I'm not saying this spring in particular has been normal - it's clearly been much wetter and duller than average almost everywhere. I'm just saying that the pattern of west = sunnier and east = cloudier is common at this time of year, we see it pretty much every year at some point between March and June. Last May/June is a great example - the first 10 days of June 2023 were pretty chilly and cloudy here, it wasn't until the winds switched to a more S/SE direction that we got hotter, sunnier conditions.

Yes the more recent few days have been quite typical for the time of year or at least later in spring. It’s the preceding. 6 to 8 weeks that it follows that is the problem. West being “best” at this time of the year, or May in particular in not unusual, it’s just that the lack of dryness and brightness elsewhere doesn’t help. If I was ever to book a holiday in the NW it would be in May as that seems to be the time it gets the best weather. Sadly there is still an easterly or northerly component to much of the “reliable” outlook so for some parts the poor run of weather continues.

Simon King in https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp4g7ex1zpeo 

It looks as if all the cloud which has made daytime miserable on the east coast, and looks likely to continue this week, has had the 'silver lining' of preventing serious frosts; and that has pushed the overall average up while being unobserved at night by the man in the street.

All models now show the high retrogressing into the mid-Atlantic, which allows a low to sink over the west of the UK through Fri/Sat/Sun.

From a promising set-up (for the western half of the UK at least), to 'garbage'... the weather gods always seem to find a way to bring dross.

North or east located anticyclonic spells are, as Leeds lad says, more frequent at this time of year than at any other. The rainfall and SLP stats are testament to that. This is also the period of the year when ocean temps are relatively cool. Which makes one ask, were the cooler waters of winters past more conducive in allowing higher level blocking to form? 

GFS Op - HP currently to the W of Britain moving ever W-wards and allowing LP to approach the N Sea with N-ly winds continuing to run down the east coast and even strengthen Wed 24th. Then an Atlantic LP runs SE-wards to Biscay 995mb Fri 26th drawing in slack but cold air across Britain. The LP centre then does a tour of Britain (via England, Scotland and Ireland in that order) finally clearing to France Thu 2nd. Although this brings back E-lies, they are from a milder source than at present, and the final frame Thu 9th shows HP building in from the SW.

ECM - rather like GFS, but the LP deepens significantly while touring Britain

GEFS - temps returning to norm around Sat 27th and mean staying there throughout, with variation in ens members setting i from around Thu 2nd. Small but frequent amounts of rain from the 27th in the S, rather more from that date in the N esp NW, but perhaps a little drier in the 2nd week of May. 

Count of hours in the year with an average bearing between 191 and 259.

WDay    CountSWBearing

1960    2956

1961    3548

1962    2811

1963    2930

1964    2862

1965    2948

1966    3046

1967    3465

1968    2521

1969    2324

1970    2680

1971    2767

1972    2662

1973    2692

1974    2912

1975    2773

1976    2232

1977    2905

1978    2678

1979    3269

1980    3011

1981    3105

1982    3159

1983    2891

1984    2660

1985    3194

1986    3118

1987    2580

1988    3088

1989    3202

1990    3526

1991    2798

1992    3240

1993    2745

1994    3571

1995    2609

1996    2396

1997    2884

1998    3356

1999    3393

2000    3599

2001    2620

2002    2971

2003    2721

2004    2984

2005    2838

2006    3050

2007    2864

2008    3530

2009    3087

2010    2180

2011    3488

2012    3274

2013    2814

2014    3177

2015    3533

2016    3103

2017    3186

2018    2663

2019    3113

2020    3369

2021    2842

2022    2996

2023    3314

Weather is not climate.  But then you know this; or should.

Thanks very much for putting that together, it's really appreciated. 👍 

Maybe it's different up here or maybe it's just my perception!

I don't mean to go OT - but I have to say this is starting to have a 2008 or 2012 look about it.

☹

I suspect it's a bit of both - the jet has been further south than usual for quite a bit of time this past 6 months, meaning lows further south (=rain in the south, but still with SW'lies in the far south) and more easterlies for you folks to the north of the lows.

FWIW that doesn't look like changing much in the medium term either, with the jet remaining further south than you'd expect in our neck of the woods.

Can confirm this somewhat. Many of the winter lows passed directly over my head, which help quell storm potential and leaving us stuck in a sort of dank, grey dondrum for much of the time. Big storms that used to affect this part of the world depend tightly wound lows passing between here and Iceland, but that never really happens anymore. 

All type of LP and HP had changed a lot now we get same LP for months, HP in wrong place so we not getting any seasonal weather with summery weather in summer or wintery weather in winter.  On the old days of model watching I used to see LP or HP move east freely so we get more varietyof weather, that including warm dry settled spells but something now preventing it happening and get stuck with same LP or wrong placed HP is a lose-lose for UK.

GFS Op - opening consistently with yesterday, starting with LP over the N Sea feeding N-lies affecting esp the E Coast followed by another cold LP running SE-wards to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th which then reverses direction. Its centre performs anti-clockwise circuits over all parts of Britain, central pressure ca 1000mb, but this persists for longer than shown yesterday, not relenting until Wed 8th when it moves to Denmark (yesterday shown as moving to France). After that HP moves up from the SW to become centred Brittany bringing much milder weather.

ECM - is briefly better than GFS; the LP Sat 27th only does one circuit before departing S-wards reaching Portugal Thu 2nd 1000mb. However pressure then falls over S Norway 1000mb Sat 4th bringing back the N/NE-lies albeit this time not directly linked to the Arctic.

GEFS - temps rise back to norm Sun 28thand the mean stays there through to Fri 10th but with ens agreement breaking up after Wed 1st - typically one very cold run balanced by 2 or 3 very warm ones out of the 33. Rain in small quantities from time to time, most likely around Sat 27th (heavier in N & W at this time) but dates around Thu 2nd and Mon 6th also to be watched, and more likely to be continual in the west.

The Open-Meteo resource is amazing! I've done something similar for a point offshore Aberdeen at 57.0N 1.5W - winds over land here can be quite strongly influenced by topography so I wanted an open water location to try and sample the gradient rather than local flow.

I used hourly data from 1940 to 2023 and split winds into 8 bins each of 45 degrees, so SW ranges from 202 to 247 degrees. The chart shows the annual percentage of winds from SW, ranging from just 15% in 2010 up to 31% in 1990. I've added a 15-year average and this shows that SW winds have been more prevalent in the second half of the series compared to the first half.

See the chart here