This is supported across models

Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.

Yes, scary stuff if you understand what’s happening.

Yes if true accurate day maxes are much higher to represent actual above average than relying on fake mild nights that no use or accuracy due we sleeping that time.  

Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.

ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.

GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.

The big difference between 2022 and now was that two years ago, much of the UK went into that summer on the back of a drier than average winter, especially in southern areas. I have seen it said here before that the very dry state of the ground leading into the summer of 2022 was one of the reasons why temperatures went as high as they did that July.

Contrast the situation two years ago to where we are now where the ground in much of the UK is completely saturated after months of above average rainfall, even in the areas that are normally drier. I think we would now need an exceptionally dry & warm period for the rest of the spring and going into the start of summer for the ground to get anywhere near the level of dryness there was two years ago.

Quite right David.

This talk of another summer 2022 is very premature given how wet its been.

My hunch, a warm summer but a very convective one!!🌩

If it's warm, there'll certainly be no shortage of water vapour rising from the sodden ground!

Yet despite the sodden ground the south east is predicted to see 21c tomorrow, and that’s with a very strong wind blowing.  Yes, soil moisture is a factor, but I’m not sure that it’s a significant one?

For all it is much warmer down south,  when I was out driving only half-an-hour ago, the temperature in my location according to the screen behind my steering wheel was only 3.5C with a very cold NE wind. That is well below what it should be at midday for the first week of April, even in Scotland. It is forecast to get milder though over the weekend up here.

It reached 19C in one location in NE Scotland back in January, around the time of one of the storms I think it was. There was a very mild sector over the UK or at least some areas at the time, IIRC. I think how far south the wind is originating from has a lot of say in how mild/warm it gets too.

I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I imagine the vast majority of us here don't want a repeat of 2022 (I certainly don't). That said, with so many flood warnings in force across the country right now, I think a dry spell regardless of prevailing temperatures is needed PDQ.

I absolutely 100% want a repeat of 2022. Fortunately it’s only early April, because the models are absolute garbage right out to the end of their runs currently. 

That depends on how dry or humid the warm airmass is. 

Yes, as a gardener I never thought I would be complaining of it being too wet in April in the driest region of the Country - but I cut the grass this afternoon as it was getting long but noticed how sparse it was in reality. Usually I would get 3 containers full of cuttings for that length at this time of year but it was only half that due to the lack of density of the sward.

Water gets hot. Water evaporates. 

GFS Op - Storm Kathleen drifts N-wards to Iceland, filling, but generating a local 'runner' whistling across S England 990mb Tue 9th. Then a period of mild SW-lies controlled by HP 1030mb over Biscay to Sat 13th, terminated by LP moving past Shetland to Scandinavia with winds going round to the N by Mon 15th. HP then forms a ridge from Greenland S-wards through the Atlantic quite close to Britain though possibly cool but a new development, not shown yesterday, is LP originating Faeroes Thu 18th running south and deepening to 995mb Wales Mon 22nd (formerly the Atlantic HP hung on)

ECM - very much like GFS, perhaps LP in Atlantic closer after Tue 9th so winds are stronger and more W-ly than SW-ly.

GEFS - temp dropping in stages to cool by Wed 10th the recovering to mild (very mild in S) until Mon 15th at which point a sudden drop to norm, all with good ens agreement. Mean then stays near norm as individual runs spread out with op on the cool side.  Occasional pulses of rain to Wed 10th then mostly dry in most runs, some peaks in a few ens members ca Thu 18th. 

And this remains the case. Utter cack bar the odd ridge

Still so early in spring though, and the lack of posts from the snow and cold hopecasters is a refreshing reminder that winter (even though it’s not cold or snowy anymore, anyway) is as far away as ever. 

GFS Op - storm Kathleen moves NE and loses its identity in the Norwegian Sea while a small but potent secondary LP 995mb moves rapidly up the Channel Tue 9th bringing in NW-lies briefly. HP then develops 1030mb over France and extends E-wards but with LP never far from NW Scotland Britain lies under SW-lies through to Sat 13th. Pressure then drops over the Baltic bringing NW-lies to Britain (yesterday it showed more of a direct N-ly) but by Wed 17th Britain is back under HP from the Atlantic. LP then tries again Fri 19th, arriving Cape Wrath from the N 990mb but after a brief visit to the N Sea is pushed back N-wards by HP 1030mb Germany Tue 23rd with S-lies for Britain.

ECM - Similar to GFS but after Sat 13th the Baltic LP is deeper and closer but not displacing the Atlantic HP, so expect N-ly gales for the E Coast with a greater pressure gradient.

GEFS - temps dip to cool Wed 10th soon resuming very mild (6C above norm) until Sun 15th/Mon 16th when a sudden drop to cool in all ens members (good chance of snow in the N at this time), mean soon returning to norm and staying there to Tue 23rd in the middle of a moderate spread of outcomes. (Not as cool in week 2 as suggested by WX above). Scotland and the W get heavy rain on Tue but otherwise only small amounts of rain and that not in all ens members for the next fortnight. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

Until now UK still ignoring the Spring season and continuing the Autumnal weather from last year to now.  Even yesterday was not Springlike more like mild Autumnal unsettled weatrher.  Spring is the season with many variety but had delivered absolately none so far.

Disagree, George. We’ve had rain, wind, rain, rain, wind, rain, wind, wind

I like my cold weather but at this stage  I'll take anything that brings dryer conditions. No certainty that there's anything dryer on the way but we can but hope.

GFS Op - small LP running across England tomorow (Tue) 1000mb then pressure rising 1030mb France with SW-lies for Britain slowly going round to W-lies by Sat 13th. Low pressure running SE from Iceland to Baltic then turns winds to the NW briefly (not as much N-ly as shown yesterday) but HP re-establishes, this time over Britain, in place by Tue 16th and intensifying 1035mb Scotland Fri 19th before moving on to Norway Wed 24th and allowing NE-lies to affect E England with shallow LP near Denmark.

ECM - as GFS until Sat 13th. Then the LP running SE is closer, takes a swipe at NE Scotland as it goes by, more definite N-lies to follow, and pressure then rises only half-heartedly with a centre1025mb Brittany Thu 18th and W-lies for Britain.

GEFS - temp profile much as yesterday, dip to cool Wed 10th, a swift rise to mild (very mild in the S) lasting to Sun 14th when sudden decline to cool, all with good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm but in the midst of a spread of outcomes, op mild and control cool. After the next day or so (when heavy rain in Scotland, showers in S), very little rain, perhaps a bit more in a fortnight's time in the south, but W Scotland and N Ireland only slowly become drier..