There should have been a yellow warning here as well. Nothing too damaging but broken fence panels from last time blown over and flying debris and wheelie bins at about 6 to 7pm, so should have been some sort of warning

Someone had better give the MetO the heads up so their forecasts can reflect this. 

Wrong thread, but I think I heard earlier this is the wettest 18 months since the 1800s

Re your second point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is the case, Matty. There does seem to have been a distinct lack of longish spells of dry weather since the end of the summer of 2022, both in my own neck of the woods and more generally.

The last notably dry weather I can recall here which lasted a week/two weeks was the settled spell of the second half of last May and the first two-thirds of June. Aside from the hot first week of September, the autumn was no better than last summer was.

GFS Op - As previously forecast, a broad trough developing from mid-Atlantic across Britain to Baltic; by Wed 3rd this has twin centres Atlantic and Baltic with Britain under a col but the Atlantic end begins to dominate and the Baltic to die away. By Sun 7th LP is 985mb S Ireland (SW-lies for England, NE-lies for Scotland) and HP is well established in E Europe. The LP slowly fills and moves away SE-wards leaving Britain under slack indeterminate pressure but by Sun 14th HP from the SW covers Britain and is linking to the continental HP which by this time has drifted N to Norway.

ECM - similar distribution of areas of HP/LP but generates deeper LP close to Britain; Wed 3rd LP 990mb Bristol Channel additional to the twin centres above, Sat 6th the Atlantic LP is close to W Ireland 970mb, Sun 7th 980mb Shetland in addition to that off SW Ireland.

FAX agrees with ECM Wed 3rd with a well defined LP 990mb N England, up till then showing showery troughs moving N-wards.

GEFS - in the S, temps from Wed 3rd on the mild side for a week before dropping back to norm with fairly good ens agreement throughout; rain in every run at some time or other in moderate amounts (but heavy in SW at first). Similar in Scotland and N England though not quite as mild, and less rain after the first week. Yesterday's forecast of a big dip in temp in the N has gone from all but half a dozen runs, though op & control (pretty well out on their own) have put in a different one around Wed 10th.

GFS Op - Current LP to W of Ireland rearranging itself into a broad trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic by Tue 2nd with the lowest pressure at each end as shown yesterday, and Britain initially under a col. As the week goes on, the Atlantic becomes more dominant (960mb SW Ireland Sat 6th). This hangs around off the W coast until Tue 9th when it swings across Scotland (980mb Clyde Tue 9th) and into the N Sea. A weak ridge of HP appears for the weekend Sat 13th, less convincing than yesterday, with onshore winds for the E coast, intensifying over Norway Tue 16th with Britain under slack LP.

ECM  - as GFS to Sat 6th. Now that BST is here, later charts in the ECM series are not completed until 0800 BST, and the following are from yesterday's 12z, not today's 0z - the same may apply if I'm committed at 0800 which is the case today. To Tue 9th, then, ECM still looks like GFS.

FAX - fronts moving N across Britain Mon and Wed this week and another lined up for Fri

GEFS - Rain on most days in most ens members for the next fortnight, heaviest in the SW, and in the N more front-loaded while the SE has more continuous rain throughout. Some indications of milder temps Sat 6th (fairly good agreement) and cooler Sat 13th (less agreement)

To me this highlights just how misleading and useless pressure anomaly charts can be. As with the ec46 you would be forgiven for thinking that we would have seen quite a cold and wintry period of weather during the last two months. A complete opposite of course to what we did see.

Also when you look at the archive synoptic charts for same period they are completely different  as we know from the weather we had to what the pressure anomaly charts show.

In summary then pressure anomaly charts along with predictions from teleconnection  blockheads and to a certain extent ssw surface weather predictions need to be binned  unless you want to be continually led up the garden path.

.

That is interesting 

Climate change messing with accepted wisdom?

I agree with this. Pressure anomaly charts are very deceptive at face value.  Often wiser to look at mean isolines than just the colours on their own.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 

I was thinking it was just a matter of interpreting anomaly charts, something that has been discussed from time to time.  The significant negative anomaly to our south-west could have been seen as an indicator for an unsettled period, which is what we got.

GFS Op - a familiar outlook from the last few days with the broad trough now setting up across Britain between main LP centres in mid-Atlantic and Baltic and Britain mostly in a col between (but shallow LP N England Wed 3rd) until Fri 5th. Then the Atlantic takes over moving to Rockall and deepening 960mb Sun 7th (S-ly or SW-ly gales over that weekend for most). This LP drifts NE-wards to Norway bringing in colder N-lies as it does so Thu 11th. Then Britain is under slack and poorly defined LP for a week while a very large area of HP grows over Kazakhstan.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 7th. The LP is then closer in, near the Hebrides with if anything stronger gales. Then it quite differently splits into two, one part filling and moving NE as per GFS, the other - not shown on GFS - moving S to 990mb Brittany Tue 9th with some possible warmth on a SE-ly for Britain. As this fills, there is a rise in pressure over Britain as HP in Azores and another in Norway show signs of linking up Thu 11th. The Kazakhstan HP is largely absent.

GEFS - In the S, on the mild side but still with frequent rain esp heavy in SW until Thu 11th back to norm or a little cooler after that, rain still continuing but in smaller amounts. In the N, the cold spell later this week is back in the forecast with a lot of rain (more than in the S) to Sat 6th, after which milder and somewhat drier as in the S. Snow likely for the Highlands in the cold spell.

Indeed and Brian has form, honed to an edge over several years when it comes to today.

If this does actually come off and it comes with full sunshine then that would give us here at Kent the first brief taste of actual Summer, in which case I'll try not to miss it by blinking but I suspect it'll all be over the French side.

GFS Op - starts with the predicted trough from the Atlantic across to Poland, but the Polish end soon wraps up and moves away E-wards while the Atlantic end continues to mess with Britain. (995 mb IoM Wed 3rd, 965mb Malin Sat 6th, 975mb Fastnet Tue 9th, 985mb Orkney Sat 13th, probably not too cold as winds in the SW). Then a brief rise of pressure before LP near Iceland brings in strong W-lies Tue 16th.

ECM - breaks the sequence after Mon 10th with Britain on the edge of HP ridge stretching from Azores to Norway. with long-fetch SW-lies and perhaps some Spring warmth.

GEFS - mild, intermittently very mild to Sat 13th after which near norm (though op cool). A slightly drier period around Mon 8th but otherwise some rain in most ens members at most times - heaviest in Scotland in the next few days and always wet in the SW.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php 

Maybe >21c for the south in the increasing solar power from ecm later on.

 Probably as always the break will happen at the end of the Easter School holidays 😩

Confirmed. Wettest since 1836

GFS Op - current generally low pressure across Britain and on both E & W retreats and is concentrated 955mb W of Biscay Sat 6th with S-ly winds affecting mainly England. By Mon 8th this has moved north to Rockall 965mb and winds generally are more SW-ly before a secondary LP crosses Britain on Tue ushering in a week of mild SW-lies with LP well to the NW. From Sat 13th low pressure starts to run W to E close to N Scotland with cooler winds from the Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure higher to the south so the Tue feature is only a weak trough and later that week, Fri 12th, pressure is 1030mb English Channel with milder weather reaching well N to Scotland.

GEFS - peaks of mild/very mild weather Sat 6th & Tue 9th (much less marked in N) and then more generally (with less ens agreement) from Fri 12th with the mean dropping back to norm over the following week as outcomes diverge on either side. In the S small amounts of rain in most runs at many times, but heavier in the N & W at first, and persistent in the far NW. Best chance of dry weather in the S Sun 7th. but a week later in the N. 

GFS Op - LP withdrawing W-wards from Britain but deepening 955mb off Biscay with strong S-lies for Britain for the weekend. This travels N-wards, filling, to be close to NW Scotland Tue 9th, a small secondary zipping across N France, but otherwise winds going round to the NW. Pressure rises from the SW and is centred SE England 1025mb Sat 13th with winds back into the SW. Although this HP is shunted into the continent by Wed 17th as LP reaches down from Iceland (rather half-heartedly) there is a reload of HP in SE Britain and mild SW-lies return by Sat 20th.

ECM - very much as GFS  though the small secondary is deeper at 990mb and closer, running up the Channel.

GEFS - mild Sat 6th (v mild in S), Tue 9th (almost absent in N) and from Thu 11th with good ens agreement before the the mean slowly returns to norm in the midst of an increasingly wide range of outcomes (op & control again v mild on Mon 15th). Some rain now, also around the 9th and Wed 17th and looking mostly dry at most other times though still present in the W after the 9th and the NW after the 17th.