🙂 

And S Spain too

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=18&run=6&time=90&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Not that Cornwall is much better off

GFS Op - LP currently over W Britain reinforced by new centre from Greenland, combining 955mb Fastnet Thu 28th with Britain in its returning polar  maritime air but also generating cool S-lies for much of Europe. This LP wanders around close to W Britain, filling, until Mon 1st when it re-shapes itself into a trough from mid-Atlantic to the Balkans with local centre 985mb in the Channel. The trough remains through to Fri 5th with more local centres running up the Channel giving a general E/NE-ly cast to Britain's weather. As the trough wraps up and finally moves away NE-wards there is a new intervention of LP from the north Mon 8th before a ridge of HP from the Azores appears Thu 11th.

ECM - remarkably like GFS to Wed 3rd when the trough splits into two, one part moving E to Latvia 980 mb and losing its identity, the other part in mid Atlantic. The latter takes up a position W of Ireland Fri 5th with mild S-lies for Britain 

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ensemble agreement, perhaps a little cooler at first, a little milder later in the S, Scotland reverses this. After that, a wide range of outcomes, mostly milder or v mild - the exception is the Op run described above which is cold (Maybe the ECM synoptics should be taken as more typical). Rain, often heavy, in most ens members at most times, little sign of a dry period in the S & W, perhaps a little relief in the N & E at first.

GFS Op - current LP deepening further 955 mb and retreating a little off SW Ireland tomorrow Thu, before making a circuit of W Britain (and affecting the rest). It's back to SW Ireland, flabbier at 990mb Mon 1st, before becoming part of a broad trough from mid-Atlantic across Britain to the Baltic states (locally deeper from time to time e.g. Thu 4th 985mb Ireland, again Sun 7th). From Tue 9th a brief pressure rise over Britain, but new LP back in position W of Ireland 985mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the 'broad trough' is more of a two-centre affair at least to start with, W of Ireland and in the Baltic, with Britain under a col of marginally higher pressure between.

GEFS - ens agreement on temps near norm to Thu 4th*, after which more variation but definitely milder than shown yesterday. Rain in most runs at most times, not dramatically heavy except in W, possibly a little drier around Sat 30th. (* but rather cool and wet for a cluster including op at this date in Scotland and N England; hill snow possible)

Down here the GFS has been creeping up (gusts into the low 60s now), as has MetO - gusts to 46 showing now, up from 40 this morning. Most times over the winter it's ended up in the middle, which would mean low 50s, perhaps even mid 50s... enough to cause a bit of disruption, especially now trees are coming into leaf down here.

I've barricaded my neighbour's dodgy fence with wheelie bins... last year his stupid trampoline blew into one of the panels, causing bits to fly off and denting the wooden panelling on my "posh shed". The trampoline is still in his garden, but now on the other side, meaning even more momentum if it gets caught in the wind!

...and it turns out there is, just not for Kent.

A deep area of low pressure will bring a spell of very windy weather to parts of southwest and then southern England on Thursday. Gusts of 50 mph are expected quite widely, while some exposed coastal spots may experience gusts of 60 to 70 mph, with large waves also likely. The strong winds will be accompanied by heavy, squally showers with the possibility of hail and thunder in some locations. Hail won't fall everywhere but where it does it can quickly make road surfaces slippery, while surface water and spray are likely to worsen travel conditions rather more widely.

The high-res models show inland gusts into the 60s or 70s in places - HARMONIE, AROME, and even the 3z UKV churned this out this morning.

I've a feeling there will be a LOT of "where did that come from?" comments come Friday morning!

The current radar looks let's say interesting. Not model related of course.

GFS Op - deep LP currently near Ireland dominating UK & continental weather, circulating around near the west of Britain until mostly filled Mon 1st when pressure falls across the Baltic and a broad trough establishes from mid-Atlantic to the Baltic States via Britain, winds tending W-ly for England and E-ly for Scotland. This trough persists until Wed 10th with sometimes local deeper centres e.g. 980mb SW Ireland Sat 6th. From Wed 10th the Atlantic end of the trough dominates and moves to N Britain 980mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS, if anything the eastern end of that persistent trough is further N, over Finland implying colder weather for Scotland.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ens agreement; the main cluster of runs is then mild for a week before dropping back to norm; a slightly drier weekend but otherwise rain frequent and persistent throughout, not too heavy except in the SW.  In Scotland and N England, temps near norm only to Wed 3rd, then a cool spell to Sat 6th before mild as above; not a great deal of rain until Wed 3rd then persistent and often heavy. Hill snow likely around the 3rd.

EDIT - GFS shows jetstream persistent and often strong across N France throughout.

A turn up for the books?

I am just to north, hopefully nothing too damaging 

Wow.

We need to take this seriously. Possible disruptive snow event around the 3rd.

Lots of factors need to come into play here, but potential there is.

I flagged the possibility elsewhere at the start of the week. There has been a reasonably consistent signal, although the devil is of course in the details.

Historically the snow risk used to trend south over time, but it has not done that this winter at all so I'm not going to count on that.

Hope you're avoiding it!

In the end what I expected to happen did indeed happen - MetO raw now has 51 as the strongest gusts (in an hour), GFS ended up at 52. The highest gust recorded at the yacht club a few miles away is 48, but it's relatively sheltered from the SW/SSW.

I'd love to know why the MetO raw so predictably undercooks max gusts. It's done it half a dozen times over winter, and now spring - with usually a whole day of "ninja upgrades" as the winds approach. Similarly GFS always seems to go too high, backing down at the last minute...

That is one temperature contrast

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/144h.htm 

And constant snow is pretty much the only way to get an ice day at this time of year! I think the record for the latest ice day is something like April 15th.

GFS Op - current LP continuing its tour of W Britain while filling until Mon 1st when combining with LP in Baltic to form an E-W trough from mid-Atlantic to Sweden. Within this trough distinct LP centres come and go; for Britain, Ireland Wed 3rd, Scotland Fri 5th, Wales Sat 6th, Channel Mon 8th, all 990-1000mb; rather cool NE-lies predominate in the N, milder but not much in the S. From Wed 10th zonal W-lies though rather cool and a brief intrusion of LP 1000mb Sat 13th as it zips locally across Scotland.

ECM -agrees with GFS but with minor differences in LP centres within that trough; Cornwall Wed 3rd, Scotland Sat 6th. The last frame Mon 8th turns the trough into two large areas of cold LP, Greenland and Norway, Britain in a weak col between, with the Greenland LP threatening to extend towards the Bristol Channel.

GEFS - in the S, good agreement of ens members on near-norm at first becoming mild Fri 5th; then a second mild peak for the main cluster is spoilt by a very cold op run before some agreement on near-norm again from Wed 10th. Rain frequent from Mon 1st to Wed 10th, a little drier after that. Scotland (& to less extent N England) temp on norm to Tue 2nd then a big contrast with the S as most ens members dip 6 or 5C BELOW norm until Fri 5th, then the second mild peak and return to norm as above but less agreement. Periods of rain in the same time frame but more sporadic and heavier  when they do occur, snow looking likely in places 3rd-5th. 

Apart from Kent where it is likely to be under "nuisance" cloud (copyright Jiries) with useless drizzle (again, copyright Jiries) tomorrow (Saturday). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

That is just like the thing of course given this weekend's upcoming change of the clocks which means that we will have moved into British Summer Time (BST) by this time next week.

In fact, I've lost track of how often we have gone into BST only for our weather to then turn colder with wintry showers, or possibly even some actual snow.

Given that we had very little in the way of snow during the winter, the weather gods will have had a real cheek if that ends up being the outcome next week as a lot of the output is suggesting.