The Weather Outlook

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BJBlake
  • BJBlake
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Monday, March 4, 2024 11:29:51 PM

The potential for further flooding looks more of a concern than a late season cold blast IMO. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

yes -

models backing away from any meaningful cold, although the pub run reintroduces a dry cool period with night frosts, but snow will be unlikely , but this seems to be a temporary dry spell, the consequence of the SSW event, before the relentless warm, wet and gloomy world

of climate change continues.  

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
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Tuesday, March 5, 2024 8:26:48 AM
WX temp charts show freezing weather slowly retreating to the NE i.e. N Scandinavia and Russia but with a distinctly cool area over N Europe adjacent to this. Britain looks average to cool over the next two weeks. Heat shown yesterday for the southern Mediterranean has disappeared. Rain in week 1 for France, Spain and N Mediterranean with Britain on the fringe; the rain area breaks up in week 2 with Scandinavia and N Europe rather dry for both weeks.

GFS Op - current LP retreating to Atlantic but projecting a trough SE-wards 975mb Biscay Sat 10th while there is a modest rise of pressure over Scandinavia. By Thu 14th the LP has moved through to Ukraine and HP 1025mb is in place from France to Norway with Britain under S-lies on its edge. The HP moves E-wards allows weak troughs to reach Britain and then on Thu 21st the chart is a carbon copy of the chart from the 10th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP  from Biscay takes a N-ward loop across S Britain on its way to Ukraine.

GEFS - mean temps close to norm for two weeks, perhaps slightly cooler at first, good agreement between ens members until about 14th, and not too bad after that. Variable amounts of rain in different ens members, nothing dramatic, perhaps heavier later on in the south, rather more at all times in the SW, very little in the far E

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+4
The Beast from the East
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 10:05:07 AM
At least its benign and calm and no sign of storms. Perfect weather for small boat crossings, and a tail wind too! 🤣
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 5:05:56 AM
Good Morning.

Today’s 00z GFS update.  

Looking at the 00z GFS forecast it is showing nearer average temperatures from Sunday 10th to Saturday 16th including night of the 16th, Blocking High, after Chilly Low with NE winds exits on Sunday 10 and Monday 11th Mixed variation of temperatures tending to return near average but briefly less Cold for a time. Tuesday 12th Wednesday 13th West and NW UK turns Overcast with some rain and very mild SSW winds.  This seems to agree with the UKMO T168 situation of 12z of the 5th.

Deep Low over Central N Atlantic Sea with UK Europe Blocking High.

 

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

+1
DEW
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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 7:58:43 AM
[/quote LA2's signature]

 all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.

IMBY at least thundery activity has definitely decreased. My impression is that the pattern has altered, with fewer episodes of thundery weather originating in France moving up to affect the South Coast, and more home-grown activity in the Midlands and North.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

BJBlake
  • BJBlake
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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 8:10:10 AM

Good Morning.

Today’s 00z GFS update.  

Looking at the 00z GFS forecast it is showing nearer average temperatures from Sunday 10th to Saturday 16th including night of the 16th, Blocking High, after Chilly Low with NE winds exits on Sunday 10 and Monday 11th Mixed variation of temperatures tending to return near average but briefly less Cold for a time. Tuesday 12th Wednesday 13th West and NW UK turns Overcast with some rain and very mild SSW winds.  This seems to agree with the UKMO T168 situation of 12z of the 5th.

Deep Low over Central N Atlantic Sea with UK Europe Blocking High.

 

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

Yes - alignment now that the Scandi high will not advect anything cold in our direction (or any), but some welcome dry weather. I think that last flirtation with modelled sub -10 Hpa air not then verifying brings into sharp focus that loud singing from the curvaceous dame! Spring has sprung. Will we get an April polar express, as sometimes happens in the 1st week? I sincerely doubt it this year. It may be better odds to speculate just how hot the summer will be.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
DEW
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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 8:25:58 AM
WX maps - while the main area of freezing weather retreats slowly NE-wards over the next two weeks, with Britain and the Baltic definitely milder by week 2, a reminder that winter is not long departed as a significant area of ultra-cold re-appears over N Russia. Pptn in week 1 all through the N Mediterranean, plus the Atlantic; in week 2 for Atlantic, Turkey and Spain. A very dry area in E Europe in week 1 extending W-ward to Denmark and Germany in week 2, just about affecting E Britain.

GFS Op - Britain mainly under HP for the rest of this week, but troughs slipping past Cornwall to end up as LP Biscay 980mb Sat 9th Biscay with strong SE-ly flow setting in further north. This LP drifts N-wards and along the Channel Mon 11th before pressure rises to cover Britain and W Europe 1030mb Fri 15th. The Atlantic LP then revives somewhat to affect W Britain with HP declining and moving away SE, and another area of LP breaking off and sliding into Biscay 990mb Wed 20th.

ECM - similar until Wed 13th but HP fails to develop esp over Britain which by Fri 15th is more affected by large trough of shallow LP SW Ireland to Iceland

GEFS - mean temp near norm for the next 2 weeks, perhaps a little milder in  S  Mon 11th but cooler in N, then a little milder widely Sun 17th, perhaps a little cooler at other times, with no great spread of ens members. Some rain appearing in one or other of different ens members with no sense of pattern in the E - some runs remain dry - but heavier and more frequent in SW England - Wales - N Ireland. 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+4
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 10:04:19 AM

Dew’s Comment

Yes I agree that you got some evidence to say that, I the reason I said that was how often in any Season away from the London Central many parts of the UK sometimes get loads of rain with some torrential falls some with thunder hail sleet and snow/lightning, current trending is mix of both a varied weather pattern all year with heavy showers and heavy rain often lasting for many months but sometimes we get some long dry spells lasting 2 or 3 months. This year River Reservoir and Pond levels lake water levels water table is highest matching with the wetter years but I can also say that Summer June July August rainfall has decreased overall, I can make a minor amendment in my signature information.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 10:41:40 AM
I know not many bother checking this discussion.  But here I am adding a small briefing regarding the next week Weather forecast from 00z ECMWF update.

Monday Fairly Cool Cyclonic NW in the SW, NE winds E and SE with E winds in Scotland, chance of scattered showers, Cool.

 Tuesday fine dry Cool normal dry average temperatures some sunshine, light winds.

Wednesday Mild in the West, Strong South SW winds, Chilly normal temperatures North South over Central to E parts, light calm winds SE’ly.

Thursday East Central from N to S remains Average temperatures, Increasingly cloudy.  West areas more widely get Long fetch Overcast mild SSW winds with chance of rain and some showers.

Friday 15th will be very Mild Southerly winds quite cloudy weather, dry more likely.

 Saturday Very Similar to Friday 15, quite mild day and night SSW winds moderate.

 

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

+1
sunny coast
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 4:27:55 PM

[/quote LA2's signature]

 all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

IMBY at least thundery activity has definitely decreased. My impression is that the pattern has altered, with fewer episodes of thundery weather originating in France moving up to affect the South Coast, and more home-grown activity in the Midlands and North.

Yes def being a fellow South coaster  frequency of such activity is less than it was say 1960s 70s and often shorter lived 

+1
warrenb
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 5:13:58 PM
3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.
Tonbridge 45m 
Gandalf The White
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 5:56:50 PM

3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

But it is just one variable amongst many.  I think dismissing a SSW is about the same as assuming it guarantees a severe cold spell.  We can get cold weather without a SSW and average or mild weather with a SSW.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Brian Gaze
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 6:33:57 PM

3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Wasn't winter 2023-24 the fifth mildest on record in the UK? It's amazing how many people (not here) think it was average or even cold.

Edit: By CET I've got it at 4 not 5.

Place    Year    Value    Dec    Jan    Feb    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020

1    1868    6.77    7.2    5.6    7.5    2.7    2.14    2.14    1.9    3

2    2015    6.73    9.6    5.5    5.1    2.66    2.1    2.1    1.86    2.96

3    1833    6.53    6.9    7.1    5.6    2.46    1.9    1.9    1.66    2.76

4    2023    6.5    7    4.7    7.8    2.43    1.87    1.87    1.63    2.73

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Thursday, March 7, 2024 7:10:42 AM

But it is just one variable amongst many.  I think dismissing a SSW is about the same as assuming it guarantees a severe cold spell.  We can get cold weather without a SSW and average or mild weather with a SSW.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?

I remember 3 consecutive nightly snow falls in the last week of march in the 70s (‘75?). Sunny days saw +7 degrees and everything melted, but the night time snow falls were beautiful, with feathery sugar snow and - 2 degree temps. And that was Mid Sussex. Mind you that was +0.4 above pre-industrial levels, not + 1.5. 

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Chunky Pea
Thursday, March 7, 2024 7:23:48 AM

Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

In keeping with climatology. Northerlies are at their most common in late March through to late April. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Chunky Pea
Thursday, March 7, 2024 7:26:39 AM

3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

I think if SSWs do have some sort of effect, it would be months, rather than weeks, down the line. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

+1
DEW
  • DEW
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Thursday, March 7, 2024 8:03:39 AM
WX maps - as yesterday the main area of freezing weather retreats slowly NE-wards over the next two weeks, but less mildness Britain and N Europe (Germany etc) in week 2, plus the reminder that winter is not long departed as a significant area of ultra-cold re-appears over N Russia. Warmth along the N African coast re-appearing. Pptn in week 1 all through the N Mediterranean, plus the Atlantic; in week 2 for Atlantic, Turkey and Spain. Pptn in week 1 for W/NW Britain, France, Spain, Balkans; the dry area in the Baltic expands in week 2 to cover SE Britain and France in week 2 splitting the wet area between the Atlantic and Greece.

GFS Op - LP from Greenland sliding SE-wards to Biscay 980mb Sat 9th, this moving E and filling, but minimal pressure rise before new LP W of the Hebrides 980mb Thu 14th. Pressure does then rise, 1030mb Holland Sun 17th as the major influence on Britain with S-ly winds before moving to Iceland 1040mb Sat 23rd with ridge SE-wards leaving Britain on the edge between mild SE-lies in the west and cold NE-lies in the east. 

ECM - similar at first but the pressure rise over Holland is absent with LP 980mb still on the Atlantic Sun 17th not far west of Ireland

GEFS - mean temps stay near norm through the next two weeks. Op & control milder around Thu 14th after which agreement between ens members breaks down, many staying close to mean but with some extreme outliers, both warm and cold. Some rain at some times in different runs, some staying dry esp in E, never very much rain except in far W & SW

 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+2
fairweather
Thursday, March 7, 2024 1:08:03 PM

Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?

 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

A stopped clock and all that. 😀 It looks remarkably like the previous failed attempts this winter. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
Thursday, March 7, 2024 1:33:57 PM

A stopped clock and all that. 😀 It looks remarkably like the previous failed attempts this winter. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

The Law of Sod dictates that this one will happen, when it's too late in the season to be of any use.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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Snow Hoper
Thursday, March 7, 2024 10:23:17 PM
Could end up with a named storm by the middle of next week if the GFS is to be believed.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

DEW
  • DEW
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Friday, March 8, 2024 7:51:14 AM
WX temp charts show a small retreat in freezing weather to finish up in week 2 from N Baltic E-ward to Russia, slightly milder and just above norm for the rest of Europe except Spain. Pptn maps are having none of yesterday's dry weather; rain from Atlantic to cover Britain, France, Italy for both weeks plus Spain in week 1. To match this, there is no significant area of HP near Britain in today's model output unlike yesterday.

GFS Op - well-forecasted LP sliding SE to Biscay 980mb tomorrow Sat, filling and moving NE across N France while new LP sets up 955mb Rockall Thu 14th moving N to Iceland (S-ly gales in the west, but LP too far away to be severe). Then a period with generally low pressure all the way across the Atlantic to the Baltic finally resolving into 975mb depression  mid-Atlantic Sat 23rd projecting troughs which move N across Britain.

ECM - somewhat similar but while the LP Thu 14th is closer to Iceland, it does have small secondary LPs in its circulation running up the W coast of Britain. 

GEFS -temp close to or a little above norm in S, cooler at first in Scotland, to Sun 17th with reasonable ens agreement, then declining to norm but with much less certainty, and indeed a wide spread of 20C between coldest and warmest on Thu 21st. More rain in most ens members than shown yesterday and heaviest in S and W.

EDIT - Jet strong throughout and mostly aimed at France, with breaks in the sequence Wed 13th and 20th

I'm away for the weekend so no reviews for a couple of days.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+2
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
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Friday, March 8, 2024 7:54:00 AM

Could end up with a named storm by the middle of next week if the GFS is to be believed.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Not sure it is past T120, but the trend seems to be back to a westerly flow and damper again for sure, and that could throw any sort of windy bomb our way being the meteorological equinox. The GFS 18Z and 0Z have backed right away from any amplified FI ending now. No Arctic plunge in sight.

By the way, just for fun, if it is your bag, unlike Delia Smith, who lives in Suffolk and supports Norwich, I may live in Norfolk, but I support Ipswich Town: Its a fairy-tale season for them! Home matches are amazing - best since Burley days: Ed must be a happy bunny!

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
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Friday, March 8, 2024 8:00:26 AM
Can anyone shed any light on why any Scandi-high we do get this year has the wrong orientation to advect cold. Even though we have an easterly QBO, and SSWs, the Scandi highs are very short lived and weak affairs, always pivoted with a SE flow. Is this just luck, or is there a particular ENSO reason or global temperature led cause? Perhaps the lack of heavyweight cold air is making them more fluid and moveable? 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
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Friday, March 8, 2024 8:04:27 AM

Can anyone shed any light on why any Scandi-high we do get this year has the wrong orientation to advect cold. Even though we have an easterly QBO, and SSWs, the Scandi highs are very short lived and weak affairs, always pivoted with a SE flow. Is this just luck, or is there a particular ENSO reason or global temperature led cause? Perhaps the lack of heavyweight cold air is making them more fluid and moveable? 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I'd go further and say that my impression of this 'winter' from a daily look at the charts has been of a semi-permanent LP centred around the Baltic, mostly fed by Arctic air, and no HP at all.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Rob K
Friday, March 8, 2024 6:35:13 PM
The 12Z GFS has 25C 850s over Italy in the latter stages. Is it June or March?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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