polarwind
05 March 2024 12:50:36
Originally Posted by: DEW 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-68476139 
Pakistan: At least 35 die due to surprise snowfall
(seems to be hail as much as snow)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68460616 
US storm: Massive blizzard hits California and Nevada "More than 7ft of snow fell in parts of the Tahoe Basin"

Global warming being selective? One day these events may visit Britain

 


How rare are these storms or how often might one reasonably expect similar storms to occur - one in ? years??
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
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"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
DEW
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05 March 2024 13:30:00
Originally Posted by: polarwind 

How rare are these storms or how often might one reasonably expect similar storms to occur - one in ? years??


See http://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we17.php 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
polarwind
05 March 2024 14:40:50
Originally Posted by: DEW 

See http://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we17.php 
 

Thanks. Interesting. Several decades ago it was the outlook of the most climatologists and 'experts' that such weather would be a thing of the past  by now - not so it seems.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Gandalf The White
05 March 2024 14:55:35
Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Thanks. Interesting. Several decades ago it was the outlook of the most climatologists and 'experts' that such weather would be a thing of the past  by now - not so it seems.



I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


lanky
05 March 2024 15:09:02
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..



Exactly so

Someone from our Met Office expressed this very neatly the other day when he said the global average temperature has risen by about 1C since the 1960's which is a huge change but the difference in maximum temperatures from day to day even in a temperate climate like the UK can vary by as much as 15C in an average winter. This is the difference between weather and climate

 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Rob K
05 March 2024 16:05:21
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..



As a keen skier I have been watching the situation across the Alps with dismay. So often I have tuned in to the ski racing and seen bare green mountains with just a thin strip of artificial snow on the piste, struggling to survive. I would only choose a resort with glacier skiing, these days.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
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05 March 2024 16:08:02
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I don’t recall reading any predictions for California?  After another virtually snowless winter for lowland England I would have thought the predictions were pretty good, as have been the prediction that our winters would become warmer and wetter.  Then there is the lack of snow and retreating glaciers across Alpine regions, also in line with climate change predictions.

But let’s focus on a freak snowstorm in a part of California…..



It's more interesting than you imply, as I take your reply to mean that you regard it as a one-off event. 

I recommend reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California  which links an irregular cycle of dry years and wet years, each in turn lasting up to a decade, to the effects of global warming. Unfortunately some studies suggest that warming makes dry years more likely and other studies favour wetter years, just to muddy the waters as it were.

In the 2010s I remember reading articles predicting doom for Californian agriculture as not enough snowmelt was occurring to allow for the necessary irrigation. . So I regard this snowfall, yes, as an extreme example of what can happen when California is in a wet part of the cycle, but falling well within an area of interest for those who follow unusual weather, and not appropriate for casual dismissal.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
05 March 2024 16:27:37
Originally Posted by: lanky 


Someone from our Met Office expressed this very neatly the other day when he said the global average temperature has risen by about 1C since the 1960's which is a huge change but the difference in maximum temperatures from day to day even in a temperate climate like the UK can vary by as much as 15C in an average winter. This is the difference between weather and climate
 


There was an article on the BBC News website last week (going on about the warmth in February), and there was a quote saying that Edinburgh and Cumbria now see as many air frosts in a typical winter as Kent and Sussex used to get "50 years ago".

Still, best not to mourn for what you've lost, but be glad to have experienced it in the first place - that's my motto!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
05 March 2024 22:10:15
Originally Posted by: DEW 

It's more interesting than you imply, as I take your reply to mean that you regard it as a one-off event. 

I recommend reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California  which links an irregular cycle of dry years and wet years, each in turn lasting up to a decade, to the effects of global warming. Unfortunately some studies suggest that warming makes dry years more likely and other studies favour wetter years, just to muddy the waters as it were.

In the 2010s I remember reading articles predicting doom for Californian agriculture as not enough snowmelt was occurring to allow for the necessary irrigation. . So I regard this snowfall, yes, as an extreme example of what can happen when California is in a wet part of the cycle, but falling well within an area of interest for those who follow unusual weather, and not appropriate for casual dismissal.



No, David, I wasn’t suggesting it was a one off event; my comment was in the context of the title of this thread, ie unusual weather events.  You’re absolutely right that climate change means increasingly unpredictable weather, but around a trajectory of increasing temperatures.  

For many years in the old climate forum I made the point that we were tampering with a complex system where there would be tipping points and unpredictable consequences. 

My post was in no way ‘a casual dismissal’; it was about context.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
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06 March 2024 07:51:40
While California gets a soaking, Panama, not far away in global terms, is suffering prolonged drought. Various expensive-looking countermeasures are being attempted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68467529 

A lack of rain and the El Nino weather phenomenon have contributed to the second driest year in the canal's 110-year history. Last October was the driest month since records began. 

The number of vessels has been slashed from an average of 36 to 24. Each ship is also carrying less cargo now because of weight restrictions. The slowdown spells trouble for global trade.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
06 March 2024 21:50:31
Originally Posted by: DEW 

While California gets a soaking, Panama, not far away in global terms, is suffering prolonged drought. Various expensive-looking countermeasures are being attempted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68467529 

A lack of rain and the El Nino weather phenomenon have contributed to the second driest year in the canal's 110-year history. Last October was the driest month since records began. 

The number of vessels has been slashed from an average of 36 to 24. Each ship is also carrying less cargo now because of weight restrictions. The slowdown spells trouble for global trade.



Panama is about 3,000 miles south of California, further than the distance between California and New York.  California’s climate is Mediterranean-like; Panama’s is tropical.

The drought has been having an increasing impact for about a year now.  I wonder why they haven’t considered pumping up sea water if it’s getting so serious?  Is it just too costly and difficult?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
06 March 2024 21:57:38
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Panama is about 3,000 miles south of California, further than the distance between California and New York.  California’s climate is Mediterranean-like; Panama’s is tropical.

The drought has been having an increasing impact for about a year now.  I wonder why they haven’t considered pumping up sea water if it’s getting so serious?  Is it just too costly and difficult?



The lakes that feed the canal also supply drinking water. So filling them with sea water, even if it was possible, would not be a great idea. (Presumably it would also be fairly catastrophic environmentally too!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
06 March 2024 22:02:35
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The lakes that feed the canal also supply drinking water. So filling them with sea water, even if it was possible, would not be a great idea. (Presumably it would also be fairly catastrophic environmentally too!)



😮🤣🤣🤣

I know. What I was suggesting was pumping sea water up, not polluting the lakes.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
07 March 2024 07:20:34
Originally Posted by: Retron 

There was an article on the BBC News website last week (going on about the warmth in February), and there was a quote saying that Edinburgh and Cumbria now see as many air frosts in a typical winter as Kent and Sussex used to get "50 years ago".

Still, best not to mourn for what you've lost, but be glad to have experienced it in the first place - that's my motto!

Yea - that’s reasonable. i do mourn the loss though, and think back with fondness to my childhood days in Sussex, walking on frozen ponds and frosts lasting days, snow days when the bus wouldn’t arrive and we all got a day playing in the snow. Such a wooded county, and very beautiful in the snow.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Rob K
08 March 2024 19:55:16
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

😮🤣🤣🤣

I know. What I was suggesting was pumping sea water up, not polluting the lakes.


As I understand it the canal and the lakes are intimately connected, in fact long stretches of the canal are basically just a marked route through the lakes. I don’t see how you could use sea water really. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
11 March 2024 14:57:19
This is a cool video. A year of weather as seen from space!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rRvUXSgnA 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Roger Parsons
14 March 2024 06:38:26
Last week, sky watchers in Texas witnessed a bright display of noctilucent clouds (NLCs). This should be impossible. They were man-made.
See my post in the "Space News" thread in "Science & Nature".
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Chunky Pea
14 March 2024 22:54:46
Phenomenal intercept by Reed Trimmer in Kansas last night. 'Nader" formed directly over the his crews head. Cloudscapes in the 2nd half the the vid are just beyond incredible. 




Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
polarwind
15 March 2024 20:34:40

   For more about these storms see -
   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-68577700

  

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
The Beast from the East
16 March 2024 03:34:58
That Reed Timmer guy is still going! I remember watching a doc with him in it back in the early 00s. Who was the famous guy that was killed by a tornado? He was on TV a lot too
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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