Hadley

7.9c to the 14th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

That should be the monthly high. Hard to say how low its going to go. High 5s low 6s would be my punt from here.
 

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Metcheck                7.56c           Anomaly           3.40c
Netweather             8.2c             Anomaly           4.0c
Peasedown St John 7.75c           Anomaly           3.45c.

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Hadley              7.4c                   Anomaly        3.6c to 16th.
Metcheck         7.03c                 Anomaly        2.87c
Netweather      7.79c                 Anomaly        3.6c
Peasedown St John    7.0c          Anomaly        2.3c.    

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Metcheck                 6.67c            Anomaly          2.51c
Netweather              7.24c            Anomaly          3.05c
Peasedown St John    7.1c             Anomaly          2.3c.

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Hadley

6.9c to the 17th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck                 6.36c           Anomaly            2.21c
Netweather              6.9c             Anomaly            2.71c
Peasedown st John    6.35c        Anomaly              2.05c.

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Hadley

6.5c to the 18th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

An interesting outlook for the rest of January. This week's cold snap has brought a drop to the CET, but with the models showing a mostly anticyclonic end to the month it could go down further yet. I suppose it all depends on whether the nights are cold enough under the high.

At the moment I'd say the mid-to-upper 5s are a good guess, but if we manage to drag in some colder air still, then the low 5s or even the upper 4s are likely. It could end up the complete inverse of December, though that was much colder overall.

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Metcheck                 6.15c                Anomaly          1.99c
Netweather              6.58c                Anomaly          2.39c
Peasedown St John    6.15c               Anomaly           1.85c.  
 

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A bit of a shame after such a mild start that January is most likely going to end up as yet another of the anonymous "mildly mild" type that we see so often these days. The cold snap here in the south is a wholly unremarkable one too . 2020 is the only 6C+ Jan since 2008 still and looks safe to remain so.
In that period we have seen this forDecember 2011, 13, 15, 16, 18, 21 - 6 timesFebruary 2011, 14, 17, 19, 20, 22 - 6 times
Why is a very mild Jan so hard to come by??

Hadley

6.2c to the 19th
2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

A bit of a shame after such a mild start that January is most likely going to end up as yet another of the anonymous "mildly mild" type that we see so often these days. The cold snap here in the south is a wholly unremarkable one too . 2020 is the only 6C+ Jan since 2008 still and looks safe to remain so.
In that period we have seen this forDecember 2011, 13, 15, 16, 18, 21 - 6 timesFebruary 2011, 14, 17, 19, 20, 22 - 6 times
Why is a very mild Jan so hard to come by??

Mostly because January (like July) is not a ‘transition’ month.  December and February can have transitioning Autumn and Spring weather respectively which, if it occurs, will increase the likelihood of a mild month.  That’s not to say January can’t be mild (it’s become milder in the last 30 years) but getting a high value is harder to achieve than December or February.

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If you look at the stats for all 3 months though the difference in long term averages is only a few points of a deg C apart for all 3 and the warmest ones are up there. The record warm January of 7.5C in 1916 was warmer than February 1998. Up to 2015 we hadn't gone above 8.1 C even for December.
So the potential is definitely there for it to be exceptionally mild .
I would say that over the last 10 years or so Jan has become the underperforming month in terms of winter warming just like December used to be in the 1990s and 2000s. The other two are going from strength to strength CET wise. 

Hadley

6.1c to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck                5.57c              Anomaly            1.42c
Netweather             6.06c              Anomaly             1.87c
Peasedown St John    5.7c              Anomaly             1.42c.     

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Hadley

5.8c to the 21st
2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Metcheck                 5.35c            Anomaly           1.20c
Netweather              5.79c            Anomaly           1.6c
Peasedown St John   4.85c           Anomaly           0.55c.     

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Hadley

5.5c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

Hadley

5.5c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

So the CET is still in freefall. I think it is likely that the rate of fall will decrease during the week but as cooler air pushes south across the UK midweek it may continue to nudge down with perhaps a late rally at the end of the month. Amazing to think it could end sub 5C after such a mild first half.  

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A bit of a shame after such a mild start that January is most likely going to end up as yet another of the anonymous "mildly mild" type that we see so often these days. The cold snap here in the south is a wholly unremarkable one too . 2020 is the only 6C+ Jan since 2008 still and looks safe to remain so.
In that period we have seen this forDecember 2011, 13, 15, 16, 18, 21 - 6 timesFebruary 2011, 14, 17, 19, 20, 22 - 6 times
Why is a very mild Jan so hard to come by??

I disagree with this, the severity of the cold snaps this Winter have been quite notable in regards to the minimum temperatures at least, and that is shown by the significant drop in the CET with a very mild first half of the month now being almost wiped out.

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