Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 December 2022 09:58:06
Due to the New Year holiday, an additional day will be given to make your January prediction.
Therefore please pm your January prediction to me by midnight on 1 January 2023.
There have only been a few late entries in recent months, please try to meet this deadline.
I will post my own prediction directly onto the thread.

By separate post I will copy and paste GW's competition rules which I extracted from last January's thread on the old TWO server.

Some background information:

Average 1991 -20 = 4.7c
Warmest this century 2007 = 7.0c
Coldest this century 2010 = 1.5c
Last 5 years:
2018 = 5.3c
2019 = 4.0c
2020 = 6.4c
2021 = 3.2c
2022 = 4.7c 

For those of you interested in trends, since 2012 the temperature has risen in every even numbered year compared to previous year and fallen in every odd numered year. This is not guidance! 
Wrightington, Wigan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 December 2022 12:02:33
Competition rules
As posted by GW in the Jan 2022 thread. May be needed in case of missed predictions, ties etc.

'Entries after 2359 on the final day of the month will only be accepted at my discretion if I consider there is a reasonable excuse. No entries will be accepted after the 2nd of the month. There is a penalty of 0.2C for each day that a prediction is late.
Here is a reminder of how the CET competitions work for the benefit of everyone but also anyone who would like to join in for the first time. All are welcome to participate.
How do the competitions work?
Each month a new thread is opened a few days in advance of the start of a new month. Your challenge is to predict the mean Central England Temperature (CET) for the following month. The CET is the longest running temperature series and goes back to the mid 1600's. Each month I post some statistics about the CET for that month in recent years as well as a summary of some of the latest model output and long range forecasts to provide some context to assist you in making your prediction. 
Predictions can be made either to one or two decimals (the actual data is published to two decimals). The closest person or persons to the final figure at the end of the month are declared the winner for that month. There are no prizes. This competition is just a bit of fun and the chance to amaze your fellow posters with your skill and foresight in predicting the weather (or you can just make a random guess!).
We use the Hadley data for the purposes of this competition which is maintained by the Met Office. Provisional figures are published daily with a final adjusted number usually issued on the first day of the following month. 
In addition to the monthly competition there is an annual competition which runs throughout the year. The annual competition keeps a running total of the cumulative prediction errors from each month for each person. Absolute differences are used so it makes no difference if you overpredict or underpredict the CET in any given month. At the end of the year the person with the lowest cumulative prediction error after totalling each of the 12 months is declared the winner for the year. This is always a hard fought contest and requires a consistency of good predictions in order to win.
Summary of important points 
- Predictions can be made up to 23:59 on the final day of the month before the one to which the prediction relates. Entries may be accepted up to two dates late but with a penalty.
- All predictions should be made by private message to me. 
- Once you have sent your prediction you are only permitted to change it once prior to the deadline. Any subsequent amendments will be ignored.  
- You may make a prediction to either one or two decimals. You can predict the same figure as someone else (except for a 2022 whole year CET prediction which must be unique). 
- Where two members have the same cumulative prediction error for the year at the end of any month, the order of ranking in the competition table will be determined by which person has had the closest prediction to the actual CET in any month. If there is a still a tie I then look to the second closest prediction for each person and so on until the tie is broken. If the tie cannot be broken (very unlikely by December but can happen in the first couple of months of the year) then each person impacted is awarded the same position in the table. 
Missed predictions
If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:
- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 
The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:
- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 
One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition'

Wrightington, Wigan
Hungry Tiger
29 December 2022 14:33:14
Just stickied it for you Frank. ☺
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team -
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
31 December 2022 14:20:29
Many thanks Frank!  
Good luck and Happy New Year everyone! 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 January 2023 16:14:55
5.35c for me
Wrightington, Wigan
02 January 2023 11:13:49
Metcheck                7.76c            Anomaly       3.61c
Netweather             8.92c            Anomaly       4.73c
Peasedown st John  6.95c            Anomaly        2.63c.  

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
02 January 2023 13:15:32

8.5c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average
03 January 2023 10:36:35
Metcheck               5.97c            Anomaly           1.1c
Netweather            6.83c            Anomaly           2.64c
Peasedown St John  6.35c           Anomaly           2.05c. 

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 January 2023 10:54:28
January predictions 

bertwhistle      6.44
sswd                6.30
redmoons       6.25
hungry tiger    6.00
rickm              5.95
gusty              5.90
sussex snow magnet 5.90
snowshoe       5.60
dingle rob      5.60
jacee               5.50
taylor1740      5.40
saint snow      5.40
frank h            5.35
stomchaser     5.33
ap snowman   5.30
caz                 5.20
jmm2005       5.20
hippydave     5.20
Gavin D         5.20
lanky              5.17
gezm             5.10
norseman      5.10
tierradelfuego 5.10
whether idle   4.98
bolty             4.90
scillydave      4.86
springsun     4.80
grandad       4.70
col                4.52
jerry p          4.45
artzeman     4.30
kendalian     4.20
surreyjohn   3.84
windywillow  3.70
bennyboy     3.15
moomin75   2.20
Wrightington, Wigan
Saint Snow
03 January 2023 10:56:42
Blimey, some optimists in there!


Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin D
03 January 2023 12:45:34

6.8c to the 2nd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average
Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 January 2023 18:14:03
I'm being a gas bill optimist !
Don't think I've ever mild ramped quite so hard compared to the rest of you in winter..
Am just finding the model chat very straw clutch ATM with respect to any serious cold snap . 
We actually haven't had many proper mild Jan's (2020 is the only one since 2008 to clear 6C which Feb and December seem to do with ease nowadays) 
04 January 2023 11:37:16
Metcheck                   7.46c            Anomaly          3.30c
Netweather                7.41c            Anomaly          3.22c
Peasedown  St John   8,47c            Anomaly          4.17c   

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
04 January 2023 13:01:13

6.5c to the 3rd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2023 20:08:37
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Blimey, some optimists in there!


The way the output is looking today, we could have all gone too low!  😀
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
05 January 2023 11:47:53
Back in Jan 2020 there was talk of the Jan record being smashed but we didn't quite make it as there was maybe one cold weekend in there. 
Who knows maybe this could be the year. Certainly getting big Jan 2007/8 vibes looking at the forecast.
05 January 2023 11:57:18
Metcheck                   8.06c              Anomaly           3.91c
Netweather                8.45c              Anomaly           4.25c
Peasedown St John     8.66c             Anomaly            4.36c. 

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
06 January 2023 12:31:40
This months charts - will try and tidy up the cumulative one a bit from last years efforts this year!

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Link to larger rolling average chart 

Link to larger Jan guess table 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Sevenoaks
06 January 2023 15:39:00
Metcheck                 8.88c.             Anomaly           4.69c
Netweather              8.87c              Anomaly           4.14c
Peasedown St John   8.48c            Anomaly          2.25c.

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
07 January 2023 11:21:31
Metcheck                       8.55c              Anomaly             4.40c
Netweather                    8.99c              Anomaly             4.71c
Peasedown St John        9.11c              Anomaly             4.51c.

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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