I have no idea whatsoever!

I'm posting these occasional snippets more out of curiosity than expectation. Just see how they work out.

These tables have been going for just over a year (I think) now on TWO. One thing I did notice in the run-up to last winter was that they never once suggested a cold winter, for what that is worth. In fact there was always a good majority of mild winters at the head of the table. So the table worked out from that point of view. Proves nothing though, as UK winters generally are mild anyway.

So far this autumn the general pattern is that years having one or two decently wintry months have generally always figured at the top of the table. The occasional spectacular one too, but generally plenty of months around the 2C CET mark.

So, we'll see.

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Indeed, as with all things weather related, we have to wait and see. Hopefully, it works out this winter, I haven't had a decent snowfall since 2018 so a cold month or two would be welcome. 

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2021 should start finding its real place in the 30 day analogues soon. It's still not correctly represented.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx?dt=30days

(Also should be ignored in the 45 and 60 days indexes for now)

 

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My view is that the accelerating and rampaging shift in our climate is rendering analogues inaccurate at best and wildly misleading in general.
But fun If considered only as that - a bit of fun.

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Climate change could easily give us a below average winter if a stable pattern develops. Many unknowns of how the atmosphere is being impacted by things such as the war or the pipeline releasing methane. But I do think we will see more and colder outbreaks than last winter (not difficult). Depends if we get lucky. Will be enjoyable however it turns out even if it is only cold after 168hrs

Hi,

This winter could begin with a neutral La Nina that could lead to a very different IMO, but One thing that I motive is the fact ofa very swing and weak jetstream patern jin the US Eastern coast exit🤔

 

 

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There is some interesting info in this article with less active jet stream and pattern matching of early season snow for a few decades

 

Sort of suggests we could get one of those cold snowy periods this coming winter

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-winter-weather-snow-cover-influence-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

 

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It was reported that the total release of methane due to Russian shenanigans was only equal to about 3 hours output for the entire country of Denmark. So fortunately not much to worry about. 
China’s obsession with coal however…

ISTR that the Met Office tried that approach when they began monthly forecasts back in the late 1960s or early 1970s (yes, I'm that old). But they weren't very successful.

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Posted in Media Thread as well: 

AccuWeather released their winter 2022/23 forecast for Europe:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417

Interesting how the forecast is for snow to be below normal in northern parts of Alps but above in southern parts of Alps like northern Italy etc? Anyway, only to be taken as a pinch of salt!

PS - Sorry abscene been trying to cope with bereavement and moving house and more!

I am not feeling SO excited about the snow and weather as usually would, especially given the soaring gas prices and cost of living I don't think i would want a freeze this winter, but wouldn't say no to some snow on Christmas day...? Maybe we could get it at long last?

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Back for another winter season!  Particularly keen to spot Easterly winds as it helps the winter fishing...

 

FWIW geese were spotted flying South a week earlier than I've ever logged (since 2009). Just sayin'...

 

 

There main theme is a southerly-displaced Jet causing low pressure systems to track over mainland Europe.

Whole of Britain drier and with less snow risk, apart from southern England with 'normal snow risk'.

That suggests northerly blocking, perhaps over, just to the W/NW/N of the UK. But with Scandi being warmer than average, it suggests more to the W/NW.

 

It's all a bit of froth anyway. It's impossible to forecast detail anything like as far in advance, and the levels that you *may* be able to provide some indication of general weather are too vague to be of much use.

 

 

 

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I would have thought for Scandi to be warmer, HP sat to their east/ NE Europe and/ or Russia. 

On the subject of geese, I saw huge numbers of them taking off last Saturday while out in the evening. 

After 40 years I'm still puzzled by my Meteorology professors seeming annoyance at the reply I gave to the question he set.
"Describe Mountain Torque"
My reply which I thought was fine was along the lines of "Hey Jungfrau, how you doing"
"Oh, you know, Eiger, a bit cold on top"

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What are going to be the buzz words this year?
I think for the first time in a while streamers is going to trend quite strongly with a big pinch of WAA

Thanks👍

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I'd be interested to see what analogue pattern matching has to say about a warm end to October, and it's effect on the following winter...can anyone enlighten me please?

The 10 warmest ends of Octobers (22nd - 31st)1772-2021  had 6 above average and 4 below average winters following based on mean CET

The whole list 1772-2021 of end of Octobers had a correlation coefficient of 0.16 against the list of following winters (DJF) which is to all intents and purposes no relationship

So no pattern

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Mixed messages from the latest La Nina analysis. It is forecast to remain strong over the Northern hemisphere winter before finally weakening next spring. Both ECM and CFS are forecasting a negative NAO trend for the winter with some blocking. However, temperatures are forecast to be around average to mild. It looks like trending dry in the UK too - wetter further south. Snow depth anomalies are high in the Scottish Highlands, neutral elsewhere.
The summary is presented as:
Europe is expected to have near-average temperatures over most of the west-central parts of the continent. Above-normal temperatures are indicated over the northern and southern parts.

This suggests that there can be periods with more cold fronts and colder days over parts of western and central Europe. The neutral to negative NAO forecast from ECMWF in early Winter supports this idea.

Such a pattern can permit an easier breakdown of the pattern and a northerly flow into central Europe later in the year and early next year.

The models are not in 100% agreement over the pattern in the North Atlantic. The main key is the positioning and strength of the pressure systems over Iceland/Greenland relative to the North American pattern.

More details available here (rather USA centric) ....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

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Taking into account all factors, e.g. eye-wateringly high energy prices, are you hoping the coming winter in the UK will be

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) October 28, 2022

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Something of a leading question Mr Gaze! 

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A story in the Telegraph this morning mentioning the MetO's cold winter forecast.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/31/cold-winter-raises-spectre-energy-shortages/

It's actually the NDJ contingency forecast, which for the first time in ages shows a greater chance of cold vs mild. An average outlook is the most probable though.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

 

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Thanks for posting the link to the MetO original, Retron.

I'm interested in this one, because it's not based on a model output ensemble, which I think is frankly useless three months out, but instead 'based on knowledge of expected global meteorological patterns'. Okay, I suppose that that is just a posh way of saying 'analogues', but I've always felt that probabilities based on analogues is the closest we're ever going to get to a reliable long-range forecast. And you'd hope that the MetO has access to a more comprehensive and appropriate range of analogues than we amateurs do. Or at least that the MetO has a more systematic way of analysing them.

Anyway, being an amateur, I'm still following the TWO Weather Analogue Index page, and I'm interested to see that 2005 has the number 2 spot today, because November 2005 saw one of the all-time great snowstorms for the West Country. And that MetO forecast is for Nov/Dec/Jan, and is noting that the 'global meteorological patterns' they've analysed suggest 'an increased likelihood of higher-than-average pressure to the west of the UK initially'.

So, maybe something is afoot for November!

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Apparently Met Office forecasting flooding for February 2023. Not sure how seriously to take this really. Is it as a result of a series of storm systems dumping lots of rain over UK or rapid snow melt? Surely too far away to be taken seriously.

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The current story is: Here’s what La Nina could mean for your winter fuel bills

"The weather pattern known as La Niña could lead to a crisp, cold winter, followed by severe flooding in February, the Met Office has warned.

La Niña refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures coupled with winds and rainfall in the Pacific, but it can have knock-on effects on weather around the world.

The government is embarking on an awareness campaign, and says that two-thirds of people at risk of flooding were still unaware of the issue."

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/heres-what-la-nina-could-mean-for-your-winter-fuel-bills-165018828.html

Make of that what you will.

Roger

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