some faraway beach
18 September 2022 08:16:29

Yay! 2010 soars to the top of the analogue index! It's been lurking in the top ten for quite a while.


18 SEP 2022





























PlaceYearIndex value
120106886
220197209
319987292
419687400



2019 in second place, but we won't talk about that, thank you.


(2010 was another year to feature devastating floods in Pakistan, so maybe, maybe, there really is a tenuous link going on to the global weather leading up to December of that year.)


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx



 


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Hippydave
19 September 2022 19:14:26

Can't say I'm expecting anything from this winter - it's been a relentlessly above average year temperature wise and it's hard to see that changing. 


I guess as others have mentioned if we get a HP dominated winter we may get some chillier months but it's entirely possible we'll get HP just to the south or via ridges from the dominant Azores HP, which wouldn't be particularly cold and could lead to mild or very mild weather.


At least with low expectations I'll either be correct or wrong and pleasantly surprised


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
polarwind
20 September 2022 08:34:28

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Can't say I'm expecting anything from this winter - it's been a relentlessly above average year temperature wise and it's hard to see that changing. 


I guess as others have mentioned if we get a HP dominated winter we may get some chillier months but it's entirely possible we'll get HP just to the south or via ridges from the dominant Azores HP, which wouldn't be particularly cold and could lead to mild or very mild weather.


At least with low expectations I'll either be correct or wrong and pleasantly surprised


The northerly ridging toward iceland/Greenland in early winter from the Azores High was very marked in the 70's and as I remarked a good few weeks ago the North Atlantic synoptics have imo, been much more like that of the 60's and 70's than the last few decades.


Interesting change?


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Dave,Derby
Matty H
20 September 2022 08:38:13
From what I read from respected scientists on various outlets, early indicators are another mild winter, which would be brilliant, but the usual caveats apply re long range. Remember the washout 2022 summer that Moominstradamus predicted?
Saint Snow
20 September 2022 11:07:38

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

From what I read from respected scientists on various outlets, early indicators are another mild winter, which would be brilliant, but the usual caveats apply re long range. Remember the washout 2022 summer that Moominstradamus predicted?


 


You get as giddy as anyone when it snows



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Rob K
21 September 2022 09:56:06
Who wants to give me odds on -30C being broken in the same year as 40C?

Nobody? Oh well...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
21 September 2022 12:06:43

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Who wants to give me odds on -30C being broken in the same year as 40C?

Nobody? Oh well...


the crazy thing is if we get a pattern in a favourable place like we did in summer it’s possible! Odds would be fairly big but couldn’t rule out a colder than average winter month this season

David M Porter
24 September 2022 08:26:16

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

From what I read from respected scientists on various outlets, early indicators are another mild winter, which would be brilliant, but the usual caveats apply re long range. Remember the washout 2022 summer that Moominstradamus predicted?


Hasn't Moomin predicted a washout summer virtually every year?



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
White Meadows
27 September 2022 06:24:04
Unlike Moomin, Met office contingency planners update today reduces likelihood of a wet & stormy period coming up, which they had been expecting previously:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v1.pdf 

Regarding Temperature, it suggests they don’t really have much of an idea.
Rob K
27 September 2022 06:37:49

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Unlike Moomin, Met office contingency planners update today reduces likelihood of a wet & stormy period coming up, which they had been expecting previously:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v1.pdf

Regarding Temperature, it suggests they don’t really have much of an idea.


Average to mild and dry. Wake me up in March!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 September 2022 07:07:11

CFS has been thinking about a mild Nov - Dec followed by a below-average Jan - Apr for a while now


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
27 September 2022 10:17:59

Originally Posted by: DEW 


CFS has been thinking about a mild Nov - Dec followed by a below-average Jan - Apr for a while now


Careful, whenever I mention CFS during winter it’s usually met with scorn & malice. 

DPower
01 October 2022 10:20:03

I have been observing the CFS for several years now and find it a useful tool for getting a feel of what to expect over the coming weeks and months. During October and November if you see the CFS develop a trend for dominant mild weather during the winter months with very little if any cold showing, then the chances are high that a mild winter will occur. So far I am fairly optimistic that we will see a mixed winter fluctuating between mild and cold. The trend from the CFS over the next two months will be the most telling alongside the weather patterns during October and November for the coming winter months.


Just a side note. Durning the SSW of late December, early Jan a couple of years back when even the bbc had a special video showing bitterly cold air most likely over the coming weeks due to SSW and just about every forum foretelling of downwelling easterly winds and bitter cold for north America and Europe the CFS seemed rather non plussed about it. Yes there were a couple of cold runs but they would soon disappear and be replaced the more familiar mild runs. Sure enough the forecasted cold was being put back to the middle of January then the end of January. Finally, after being pushed back to mid February and beyond it was dropped completely.


Therefore in my view the CFS is definitely worth keeping an eye on.  


 


 

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2022 10:37:58

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Who wants to give me odds on -30C being broken in the same year as 40C?

Nobody? Oh well...


Well in Dec 1995 we equalled the all time record low after a hot summer so never say never....


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
glenogle
03 October 2022 20:14:07

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Unlike Moomin, Met office contingency planners update today reduces likelihood of a wet & stormy period coming up, which they had been expecting previously:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v1.pdf

Regarding Temperature, it suggests they don’t really have much of an idea.


October certainly starting off pretty wet and stormy.  Doesn't mean it won't change, but not a great start to their forecast given its only a week old?


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
White Meadows
04 October 2022 22:01:22

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


 


October certainly starting off pretty wet and stormy.  Doesn't mean it won't change, but not a great start to their forecast given its only a week old?


Likely they refer to October as a whole, always on more generalised terms with contingency planners. The 3 month tool has been mostly pretty hopeless in recent years despite efforts to improve it with the latest billion £ supercomputers. Still, if you keep rolling you might get a double six after enough tries. 

Surrey John
05 October 2022 10:08:25

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


 


October certainly starting off pretty wet and stormy.  Doesn't mean it won't change, but not a great start to their forecast given its only a week old?



Starting to look like it will be cooler than average in second half of October in UK, but milder in Europe, which rather suggests the normal Autumn Atlantic origin weather (westerlies) is going to be more a northern from colder Arctic.


 


Could continue into November, but there is old weather lore : If there be ice in November that will bear a duck, there will be nothing thereafter but sleet and muck.   
This would fit in with the 3 main winter months (Dec-Feb) being less cold than normal in some long term forecasts. (Not that I am a great fan of a damp, windy, soggy winter)


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
marting
06 October 2022 19:04:29

I see the METO have blogged the winter forecast today, blocked Nov and Dec.


https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/10/06/what-can-we-say-about-the-weather-this-winter/


Martin


Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 October 2022 19:06:38

Originally Posted by: marting 


I see the METO have blogged the winter forecast today, blocked Nov and Dec.


https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/10/06/what-can-we-say-about-the-weather-this-winter/


Martin



That's an eyebrow raiser. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
06 October 2022 21:09:51

Originally Posted by: marting 


I see the METO have blogged the winter forecast today, blocked Nov and Dec.


https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/10/06/what-can-we-say-about-the-weather-this-winter/


Martin



“Weather patterns for October look mobile with a westerly or south westerly air flow ..."


I'd like to see the pressure anomalies for just November/December in that case. Because if they're suggesting higher than average pressure over and around the British Isles for Oct/Nov/Dec with the outlook mentioned above for October, then the signal for Nov/Dec alone must be even stronger.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
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