That's an eyebrow raiser. 

 

I thought exactly the same, must be a strong signal. Martin

 

“Weather patterns for October look mobile with a westerly or south westerly air flow ..."

I'd like to see the pressure anomalies for just November/December in that case. Because if they're suggesting higher than average pressure over and around the British Isles for Oct/Nov/Dec with the outlook mentioned above for October, then the signal for Nov/Dec alone must be even stronger.

Scotland has no snow patches anywhere in the country for the 4th time in 6 years after The Sphinx, in the Cairngorms melted yesterday.

They had previously had no snow patches 9 times in 300 years prior to the recent run.

BCC flips to blocked too on its latest update. Very strong Icelandic blocking signal there, Courtesy of the Beijing Climate Centre modelling-

Scotland has no snow patches anywhere in the country for the 4th time in 6 years after The Sphinx, in the Cairngorms melted yesterday.

 

They had previously had no snow patches 9 times in 300 years prior to the recent run.

Weird now is melted completely in October than in summer months.

 

Weird now is melted completely in October than in summer months.

Not really if you think about it. Any snow on the Scottish mountains has had 6-7 months to melt by this point in the year, and October more often than not, isn't particularly cold and snowy even up there.

They have to survive until lasting snow arrives. That is not usually until late October in the high Cairngorms and November in Lochaber. In 2015 when many patches survived the lasting snow did not arrive until December. (The first snow may often fall in September and even late August but it does not last). Way back in 1976 after the hot Summmer lasting snow arrived in the second week of September on the Cairngorm plateau but that was exceptional and did in fact save the Sphinx patch on Braeriach from melting despite the long hot Summer. It was the only survivor that year but even it has now melted 4 times in the last six years. It had actually only melted five times in the three hundred years prior to 2000 and three of them were in the second half of the twentieth century.

An interesting number 1 in the Analogue Index for the last two days:

11 OCT 2022

An interesting number 1 in the Analogue Index for the last two days:

11 OCT 2022

Place	Year	Index value
1	1952	7312

1952 saw the second-coldest November CET in the last 75 years, at just 4.2C. With less than three weeks to go until November, there might actually be something worth considering in this analogue.

Might be a dumb question but are there any statistics as regards how accurate analogues are? Obviously the theory is fairly straightforward - if the weather for a long period leading up to October 2022 is similar to the weather for a corresponding period of a given year, then there is in theory a good chance that the weather will be similar thereafter for both years. However, do we know how often the theory works out in practice?

I have no idea whatsoever!

I'm posting these occasional snippets more out of curiosity than expectation. Just see how they work out.

These tables have been going for just over a year (I think) now on TWO. One thing I did notice in the run-up to last winter was that they never once suggested a cold winter, for what that is worth. In fact there was always a good majority of mild winters at the head of the table. So the table worked out from that point of view. Proves nothing though, as UK winters generally are mild anyway.

So far this autumn the general pattern is that years having one or two decently wintry months have generally always figured at the top of the table. The occasional spectacular one too, but generally plenty of months around the 2C CET mark.

So, we'll see.

I have no idea whatsoever!

I'm posting these occasional snippets more out of curiosity than expectation. Just see how they work out.

These tables have been going for just over a year (I think) now on TWO. One thing I did notice in the run-up to last winter was that they never once suggested a cold winter, for what that is worth. In fact there was always a good majority of mild winters at the head of the table. So the table worked out from that point of view. Proves nothing though, as UK winters generally are mild anyway.

So far this autumn the general pattern is that years having one or two decently wintry months have generally always figured at the top of the table. The occasional spectacular one too, but generally plenty of months around the 2C CET mark.

So, we'll see.

Indeed, as with all things weather related, we have to wait and see. Hopefully, it works out this winter, I haven't had a decent snowfall since 2018 so a cold month or two would be welcome. 

2021 should start finding its real place in the 30 day analogues soon. It's still not correctly represented.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx?dt=30days

(Also should be ignored in the 45 and 60 days indexes for now)

Hi,

This winter could begin with a neutral La Nina that could lead to a very different IMO, but One thing that I motive is the fact ofa very swing and weak jetstream patern jin the US Eastern coast exit🤔

Hi,

This winter could begin with a neutral La Nina that could lead to a very different IMO, but One thing that I motive is the fact ofa very swing and weak jetstream patern jin the US Eastern coast exit🤔 

There is some interesting info in this article with less active jet stream and pattern matching of early season snow for a few decades

Sort of suggests we could get one of those cold snowy periods this coming winter

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-winter-weather-snow-cover-influence-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Climate change could easily give us a below average winter if a stable pattern develops. Many unknowns of how the atmosphere is being impacted by things such as the war or the pipeline releasing methane. But I do think we will see more and colder outbreaks than last winter (not difficult). Depends if we get lucky. Will be enjoyable however it turns out even if it is only cold after 168hrs

It was reported that the total release of methane due to Russian shenanigans was only equal to about 3 hours output for the entire country of Denmark. So fortunately not much to worry about. 
China’s obsession with coal however…

 

Might be a dumb question but are there any statistics as regards how accurate analogues are? Obviously the theory is fairly straightforward - if the weather for a long period leading up to October 2022 is similar to the weather for a corresponding period of a given year, then there is in theory a good chance that the weather will be similar thereafter for both years. However, do we know how often the theory works out in practice?

ISTR that the Met Office tried that approach when they began monthly forecasts back in the late 1960s or early 1970s (yes, I'm that old). But they weren't very successful.

Posted in Media Thread as well: 

AccuWeather released their winter 2022/23 forecast for Europe:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417

Interesting how the forecast is for snow to be below normal in northern parts of Alps but above in southern parts of Alps like northern Italy etc? Anyway, only to be taken as a pinch of salt!

PS - Sorry abscene been trying to cope with bereavement and moving house and more!

I am not feeling SO excited about the snow and weather as usually would, especially given the soaring gas prices and cost of living I don't think i would want a freeze this winter, but wouldn't say no to some snow on Christmas day...? Maybe we could get it at long last?