WX still seasonally cool across western Europe with a little extra warmth on western coasts, but cold, even freezing, patches appearing in Norway and Iceland. The Med reasonably warm but some cooler patches even there. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic incl Britain and across to W Russia; in week 2 dry from S Ireland across to France, and rain to N and especially S of this.

Jet streak to S England now, to Scotland Wed 5th, fading and clearing completely by Tue 11th, re-appearing in the Med and separately S Greenland Sat 15th

GFS Op - current LP near Iceland with trough to UK filling but still deep enough to enforce SW/W-lies for UK for the coming week before moving to Norway Sun 9th with brief N-lies. Then HP uncertainly covering Britain for the following week before collapsing Sun 16th and a general area of LP from Spain to Baltic with its deepest centre near Spain.

ECM - resembles GFS

GEFS - briefly warmer around Wed 5th then mean temp near or slightly below norm for rest of forecast. Rain around now, easing for a day or two, then resuming on a frequent basis in N/NW, intermittently S/SE

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I was just checking that with Heathrow’s data, a probable hotspot, and there were 6 days in ten years of October data that reached the 22-24°C range in the 90s.

Back to the present and after the next day or two things don’t look too bad for the time of the year, relatively settled and not overly chilly.

Yes and under 22C were many times on first week or 2 from my data with 1995 had the most I recorded twice 26C with most days at 20 to 25C for 20 days before Autumn set in last week then winter set in last week of November with snow.  I see possible 20C next week if there sunshine around.  

Well, that’s September done.
And just as Met office 3 month outlook U-turns on their previously stormy October, the Atlantic wakes up it’s Demons.

Not much to add to yesterday's chart for temp and early rain: WX still seasonally cool across western Europe with a little extra warmth on western coasts, but cold, even freezing, patches appearing in Norway and Iceland. The Med reasonably warm but some cooler patches even there. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic incl Britain and across to W Russia; but rain different in week 2 with dry weather reserved for Spain and the N Atlantic including Britain and Norway continuing the wet weather from week 1.

GFS Op: mobile W-ly regime in place with LP strongly established in N Atlantic and HP mainly over France and S of that. In this flow a fleeting HP Mon 10th and OTOH a trough well S Sun 16th

ECM : more of a block arising on Mon 10th with N-lies developing on the Tue

GEFS : as before a little warmer around Wed 5th after which mean temp consistently a little below norm, taking in a few quite cold outliers, more scatter in ens members further N. Rain in the S tomorrow and Thu 6th and more generally after Thu 13th; the N misses out on tomorrow's rain but mostly like the S after that except for the NW where the rain never really stops.

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Yuck 😫 

What a boring chart imby

Mildish nothingness 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Or great if your further north and like wind n rain 🌧 🙄 

Well, that’s September done.
And just as Met office 3 month outlook U-turns on their previously stormy October, the Atlantic wakes up it’s Demons.

Yep the Atlantic stretching it's legs in preparation for its annual Winter march across the UK. 

WX temp - no surprises as weather continues cool though slightly above seasonal average for W Europe , heat in Med declining and freezing patches appearing in Iceland and Norway. Rain also  much as yesterday, blowing in from the Atlantic to countries bordering the Atlantic; separate patches in E Europe week  and the Med week 2.

Jet from W across Scotland Wed 5th but not lasting; then from the NW first through Ireland Thu 13th and then continuing strong from the W over Britain

GFS Op - W/SW spell throughout with HP (Mon 3rd, Mon 10th) and LP (Wed 5th,  Thu 13th) taking turns as the dominant influence. LP comes well S on Tue 18th end of run.

ECM - similar, W-lies a bit more blocked by HP after Mon 10th

GEFS - a little warmth in the S at first but otherwise mean a little below seasonal norm throughout with increased scatter in ens from Mon 10th. Largely dry in S until Thu 13th in S, then rain in many but not all ens members. Similar temp profile in N England & Scotland but with increased scatter. A more complex pattern of rain, fairly continuous, mostly in NW until later on, except the NE having its own spike Wed 6th.

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October looking very zonal and Autumnal at the moment. Interesting the swift transition to Autumn we've had this year, feels a bit different to recent years where the warmth and high pressure have lingered on.

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WX temp - no surprises as weather continues  as yesterday cool though slightly above seasonal average for W Europe , heat in Med declining and freezing patches appearing in Iceland and Norway.  (now also the Alps) Rain also  much as yesterday, blowing in from the Atlantic to countries bordering the Atlantic; separate patches in E Europe week  and the Med week 2 but the latter patch now extended to cover France and particularly heavy in the Balkans

GFS Op - mobile westerly with a series of deep LPs from Iceland to Norway. Within this stream HP now & Wed 19th , LP Mon 10th & Sun 16th, the latter breaking off a trough down into the Med and presumably responsible for wet weather there.

GEFS - In the S mild now, then near norm to Thu 13th (but Op briefly a cold outlier), then cool to Mon 17th but with Op &  Control leading a recovery towards the end. Rain in some but not all ens members from Mon 10th, dry until then. In Scotland, temp profile similar but episodes of rain from time to time before 19th and more frequent later esp in W; this rainfall pattern also includes NW England and to a lesser extent the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS, LP trough on Mon 10th more localised over Britain but HP recovering more quickly after and LP not getting down to the Med

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WX temps remain a little above average for W Europe, warm in the Med and around the Black Sea, but in week 2 cool air moving into Spain from the NE and rather cold in Norway & N Baltic. Rain from Atlantic including W Britain week 1, some in Med, dry C Europe; widely distributed across Europe week 2, dry near Black Sea. 

GFS Op - general W-ly flow to Thu 13th (with something of an embedded trough Sun 9th) but then the Icelandic LP moves to N Sea 965mb with N-lies to follow Sat 15th. Pressure then flattens out but HP grows SW of Ireland and with LP 980mb Norway Thu 20th there is a renewed N-ly blast esp to E coast.

GEFS - temps in SE dropping to a steady seasonal norm for this week, then up to 3C below norm for rest of forecast; rain in many ens members from about Tue 11th (though op & control mostly dry). In the N temps this week up and down near norm then cool as above; very wet in NW Scotland throughout, to simply wet in SW England with the heaviest rain around Sat 15th

ECM - like GFS until Thu 13th when sharply different, the Icelandic LP moving S to Rockall 980mb with strong SW-lies for Britain - no sign of N-lies

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Just noticed meteociel have more detailed ECM ensembles be handy for the coming winter 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php

 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens.php?model=1

 

In the here and now it's about as boring as can get imby stuck in no man's land 

 

Just noticed meteociel have more detailed ECM ensembles be handy for the coming winter 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php

 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens.php?model=1

 

In the here and now it's about as boring as can get imby stuck in no man's land 

 

Autumn is the worst season in the UK unlike other countries have wide variety of Autumn weather set ups.

WX temps little changed from yesterday or indeed from the last 5 days: a little above average for W Europe, warm in the Med and around the Black Sea, but in week 2 cool air moving into Spain from the NE and rather cold in Norway & N Baltic. Perhaps a little milder week 1 near Atlantic coasts. Rainfall pattern also similar to yesterday: on Atlantic including W Britain week 1, some in Med, dry C Europe; widely distributed across Europe week 2, dry near Black Sea  perhaps more concentrated in the Alps and Italy.

GFS Op: W-ly regime continues to Fri 14th (embedded trough late Sun 9th) then deep LP NW Scotland 965mb bringing in N-lies briefly as it moves quickly to Baltic. HP then centred on Atlantic often spreading far enough to influence Britain but  letting troughs run down the N Sea from Wed 19th.

GEFS: temps near norm to Fri 14th then definitely cool to end of forecast (21st). Dry at first in S, though in N separate peaks Fri 7th and Mon 10th; then rain generally in many ens members esp Fri/Sat 14/15th

ECM: similar to GFS except that the LP on Fri 14th is further S - 985mb N Ireland

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Most of the models are playing about with the idea of a period of storminess on the 14th-15th. Being 9 to 10 days away it is most certainly subject to changes but forgive me for being jittery on the 35th anniversary of The Great Storm. 

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Ensembles certainly look cold and wet from mid month... quite different from recent autumns.

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A wet and stormy path may lay ahead.

The rain is needed though.

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Possible genesis of Medicane is much more interesting!

WX - as Autumn rolls on and winter coming, it's time to describe the present level of temp as mild rather than cool. So, mild weather for the time of year widely across Europe with temps a little above average, something a bit warmer hanging on in Biscay, anything really hot in S Med and some patches of proper cold in the extreme N. Rain in N Atlantic week 1 with some in C Med, dry around Black Sea; in week 2 a large area of rain centred on the Channel stretching from well W of Britain down to S of the Alps.

GFS Op - W/SW-ly regime to Fri 14th (but with passing trough Sun 9th/Mon 10th) then LP developing a trough S-wards Fri 14th across Britain deepest 980mb Orkney Sun 16th but the centre trundles S into England, finally moving off to the Baltic Wed 19th. Then back to W/NW lies

GEFS - temps near seasonal norm until Fri 14th then cool/cold for a week, rain persistent for that week though the N has a couple of short-lived rain events before the 14th.

ECM - similar to GFS but keeps the LP on Fri 14th further N, becoming centred in the Norwegian Sea Sat 15th, and moves it away E-wards soon after though the associated trough drags its heels over East Anglia to Mon 17th

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Is that a nasty "fried egg and frozen sausage" heading ouy way 192hrs, 14th ?

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ECM offering a glimmer of hope at T240 for my CET guess, although looks to be fairly stereotypical brief Northerly before the HP collapses and milder air returns. 

Before then pretty standard autumn fare - wetter the further North and West you are in a generally zonal flow with brief ridges of HP.  The operational run suggest most of the rain/showers won't really impact MBY before 14th, which has a pronounced rain spike (and the ens suggest more chance of rain for here then too). 

There's a few LPs that may cause issues with wind gusts as it's early enough in the season for trees to be carrying their leaves still (well here it is anyway and the wind yesterday was enough to bring down a large oak branch near me). Worth watching how they develop I guess.

 

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