WX - Much as yesterday, mild weather for the time of year widely across Europe with temps a little above average, something a bit warmer hanging on in Biscay, anything really hot in S Med and some patches of proper cold in the extreme N. Rain in N Atlantic week 1 with some in C Med, dry around Black Sea; but different in week 2 with the large area of rain now centred further E, on the Baltic rather than the Channel with a tail hanging back over S France and Spain

GFS Op - W-lies to Fri 14th (with a shallow trough passing through late Sunday), LP on Sat 15th 970 mb Scottish central belt with N/NW gales for W & S Britain, but unlike yesterday favouring a rapid move of LP to Scandinavia (as per ECM yesterday)and back to  a cool (showery?) NW-ly until Sun 23rd when HP finally moves in from the Atlantic to cover Britain.

ECM - has swapped ideas with GFS since yesterday when it wanted to clear next weekend's LP out of the way; GFS is now the one to move it off and ECM the one to move it S-wards 985mb S Ireland Mon 17th - which is what GFS was predicting yesterday!

GEFS - temps not far from average to Fri 14th then cool for rest of forecast, even possibly cold at first but op run is warmer at end; and rain  frequent in most ens members after that date, heaviest in S & W. The N has a brief extra rain event Mon 10th.

Is that a nasty "fried egg and frozen sausage" heading ouy way 192hrs, 14th ?

Going by this mornings charts, looks like the first named storm of the season.  Antoni?

Who is up for the CFS January run today - coldest and snowiest one for a while!
Back to the nearer time, next weekend looks potentially very stormy and with a lot of leaves in the trees could be quite damaging

Can you post a link please?

Agreed re near term - possibly a drought buster of a spell on the cards.  We could do with a wet remainder of the Autumn, particularly in the southern half of the UK.  Reasonably good agreement between ECM and GFS for this to become more prominent in the 6-7 day timeframe. Check your fences.

WX - temps across Europe remain mild though with some cold patches in the far N; the Med stays warm. In week 2 some warmth moves N across France ro S England while the cold patches expand , setting up something of a temp gradient across Britain. Distribution of rain still uncertain; N Atlantic and Med week 1, W Ireland and N Ukraine week 2

GFS Op - W-ly regime at first though with minor trough passing through Mon 10th, deep LP passing just N of Shetland Sat 15th 960mb, splitting into two with one part to Scandinavia and the other off Cornwall Mon 17th. The latter then develops and generates a trough extending NE to Britain before slowly retreating SW allowing HP to cover Britain Sat 22nd, though this gets pushed E-wards in the last frame Mon 24th.

GEFS - temps near norm though up and down (esp in N) a bit until Sat 15th, then mean temp cool for a few days before slowly recovering to norm (but Op is a very warm outlier in S, +8C above nearly all ens members). Rain frequent in most ens members from the 15th onwards (14th in N).  

ECM - Similar to GFS until 15th when the deep LP is 970mb Orkney, then the part which moves SW Mon 17th is further away, some distance off Ireland, allowing S-ly winds for Britain and (12z at time of posting) no trough extending NE

Not sure what to make of the GEFS ensembles

From 15th the mean is running consistently 2-3c below long term average, but the Op and Control have gone off on their own as much warmer.

I think a period of quite cold nights is likely 3rd week October

I think it depends critically on the position of the LP to the SW. If it stands off a bit (as per Op or ECM) there will be a flow of air from a long way south, warm and fairly dry. If it's a bit closer, and only a bit will be enough, the wind will be more from the Atlantic with a lot of cloud.

WX temps as before for week 1, mild for most of Europe, cold for Scandinavia, warm/hot in Med; in week 2 some of that warmth escapes from the Med and pops up rather patchily over France, S England, Germany and the Balkans. Rain  in N Atlantic incl W Britain week 1, that moves to cover all Britain week 2 with a separate patch from S France to Algeria.

GFS Op: shallow trough moving E-wards across Britain later this weekend followed by W-lies until Fri 14th when LP deepens S of Iceland and is centred Sat 15th 975mb Hebrides. This splits, the N part moving to Scandinavia and filling, the S part just W of Biscay 985mb Tue 18th with SE-lies for England, Scotland with weak  ridge of HP. The LP slowly fills and then back to SW-lies for all until LP from Atlantic approaches Scotland Tue 25th. 

GEFS: temps up and down around norm at first, cooler near Sun 16th, then mean near norm with much disagreement between ens members (Op is on the warm side which feeds into WX forecast above) Rain frequent from Fri 14th onwards, op & control relatively small amounts but some ens have big spikes. Less rain  in Scotland esp in NE (but not none).

ECM: As GFS to Fri 14th then keeps the S part of the LP further out on the Atlantic with SW-lies except for a one-day-only special on Tue 18th when there is a local but deep LP Ireland 980mb

Ensembles certainly look cold and wet from mid month... quite different from recent autumns.

Yes, - 'quite different!'

Interestingly different  synoptics, akin to 60's and 70's stuff imo.

Yes, - 'quite different!'

Interestingly different  synoptics, akin to 60's and 70's stuff imo.

But will we be referring to this come March after Winter next year?  I doubt it!  

Just a quick vote of thanks to DEW, for the excellent summaries.

 

But will we be referring to this come March after Winter next year?  I doubt it!  

That is a good question with the experience of several decades behind us.

But the synoptics are indeed different and have been different most of the time over the last 4 or 5 weeks.

WX temps down a little today with mild all across most of Europe weeks 1 & 2, yesterday's incursion of warmth from the SW has disappeared and there is some much colder stuff appearing in Norway in week 2. Rain in N Atlantic across to Baltic week 1, maintained and also spreading further E in week 2 while yesterday's forecast of rain in the Med has been cancelled.

GFS Op shows current trough moving through then W-lies until the weekend when LP establishes 975mb Sat 15th off the Hebrides, As before, this is forecast to split by Tue 18th, one part becoming a large area of LP N Norway (more extensive than yesterday), the other part appearing as two smaller but quite local centres 985mb off SW Ireland and 990mb some 300 miles further SW again. The latter comes to dominate and drifts across to Belgium Fri 21st , re-uniting with the Scandi part to bring in N-lies intensified Fri 22nd by LP centre 990mb N Scotland. This moves E-wards and W/SW-lies return.

ECM shows a similar pattern to Tue 18th though the LP over Scandinavia is less distinct. The southern part is a single but larger centre 990mb well SW of Ireland but then moving N to be situated W of Ireland Thu 20th, nowhere near Belgium.

GEFS shows temps mostly near norm, a dip near Sun 16th, a lot of variation between ens members thereafter but op & control mild at first and cooler later (i.e. from Sat 22nd). Rain quite frequent from Fri 14th, op & control with some of the lowest totals in the S, this trend less marked in the N. 

Uncertainty and scatter on the GEFS as to how the 2nd half if October could turn out.

The previous 4 ens runs show it clearly 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=298&y=102&run=100&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

WX summary temps: back to forecast of 2 days ago. Week 1 still mild across most of Europe, cold in Norway, then in week 2 some warmth pushes in from the SW as far N as S England and as far E as the Danube basin. At the same time much a large patch appears much colder in N Scandinavia and NW Russia. Rain week 1 in N Atlantic incl NW Britain with that area moving S in week 2 to be positioned over Spain and up to SW Britain, Very dry in C Europe week 1 extending S to E Med week 2.

GFS Op: W-ly regime until Sat 15th (but trough moving through on Thu/Fri) when LP becomes centred 985mb NE Scotland. Part of this moves E to Baltic and fills, the other part first localises 975mb Mon 17th SW Ireland, and then moves SW to Biscay 990mb but covering a larger area. It eventually fills while moving N and has disappeared by Sun 23rd when pressure rises across Scotland. This doesn't last as the HP withdraws to the Continent and SW-lies are back later that week.

ECM: like GFS to Sat 15th but then the LP is already splitting, with the N-ly part becoming a bigger feature over Norway and then Russia than in GFS, and the S-ly part further to the SW, no local LP on Mon 17th, and later that week still well out in the Atlantic with HP 1030mb over Britain and warm S/SE-lies for all. End of the FAX sequence (15th)  supports this view.

GEFS: temps near norm or a little below to Mon 17th then mostly mild, even warm, for a week but increasing uncertainty with the op & control taking off in opposite directions after that (on the 24th these are respectively 7C above and below norm). Rain quite frequent in one ens member or another after Thu 13th, heaviest in W, in NE mostly for a few days beginning 17th.

WX summary temps: back to forecast of 2 days ago - I said that yesterday, too - the temp forecasts are swinging to and fro. Today for week 1 Europe continues mild with a smidgeon of extra warmth around Biscay, and equally a smidgeon of extra cold in the far N. For week 2 there is no extra warmth from the SW and instead a major expansion of freezing weather covering much of W Russia and N Scandinavia; Britain is quite close to seasonal norm. In week 1 there is rain on the N Atlantic but the Danube basin is dry; in week 2 the rain has slipped S-wards in a belt from Portugal to Ukraine, just touching S England.

GFS Op - as before W-lies for now but 985mb LP appears near Hebrides Sat 15th, splitting into a N centre 995 mb N Sea Tue 18th which soon is absorbed by a much larger LP N Russia bringing in the cold weather mentioned above; and a S centre 995mb further away than shown yesterday 995mb mid-Atlantic. This brings in S/SE-ly across the UK until Fri 21st when (new) it troughs across Britain before moving E-wards. Pressure rise across Britain by Tue 27th but threatened by Atlantic troughs from the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS but last frame Sat 22nd suggests a development W-wards of the Russian LP with N-lies approaching Scotland

GEFS - Plenty of variation in ens members but mean close to norm early and late (a bit cooler in Scotland at first), milder around Thu 20th but followed by a sharp drop in op & control (though not in other ens) Rain frequent in one ens member or another for the next fortnight, some big totals in SW.