Sods Law says.....

R.

Was going to say the same. GUARANTEED to be the coldest winter since 1962/3 now!!

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Important point. For the sake of household budgets and the weakening of Russia we really need this winter to be the mildest on record in Western Europe.

 

I'll bank on a cold one, then 

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Was going to say the same. GUARANTEED to be the coldest winter since 1962/3 now!!

Well I have been scavenging wood in preparation for the stupidly oversized woodburner going into my house as part of the renovation (as well as underfloor heating and a heat pump, which hopefully won't be needed too much with the fire).

 

Having said that, with the amount the renovation is costing I could probably heat my house for the rest of my life by just building a big bonfire of £50 notes each winter. 

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Well I have been scavenging wood in preparation for the stupidly oversized woodburner going into my house as part of the renovation (as well as underfloor heating and a heat pump, which hopefully won't be needed too much with the fire).

 

Having said that, with the amount the renovation is costing I could probably heat my house for the rest of my life by just building a big bonfire of £50 notes each winter. 

Good luck burning the new polymer notes 

 

With the impending monsoon season just days away now!

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=312&y=105&run=0&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0

Ive accepted that Summer is over.

6Z GFS has a go at pulling the high pressure back in, but then goes really unsettled, and exceptionally cool for August just past day ten.
Would envisage this being a cold outlier for sure, as surely we can't be looking at 11c as a maximum just after next week in August?

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6Z GFS has a go at pulling the high pressure back in, but then goes really unsettled, and exceptionally cool for August just past day ten.
Would envisage this being a cold outlier for sure, as surely we can't be looking at 11c as a maximum just after next week in August?

Its probably a bit of an outlier with tte deep dartboard low, but like most other recent runs it builds high pressure into the last week of August. Given this and the long term ensembles from both ECM and GFS I’d say there’s a good chance of a decent settled end of school holidays and August bank holiday. 

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With the exception of that dartboard (which I am sure will be gone next run) the GFS looks pretty HP dominated to finish August.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0 

The GEFS mean is back above 1015mb for much of the country by Thursday.

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Sods Law says.....

R.

Hubby and I were discussing this yesterday.  Our pyracantha has more berries than any other year, same with the hawthorn and lots of blackberries in hedgerows too.  Signs of a hard winter?  Hopefully not, as we’ll be mid-built of our granny annex!  

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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0 

The GEFS mean is back above 1015mb for much of the country by Thursday.

Indeed - P13 has only 0.1mm for the entire run.

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The entire short run up to 192 that is.

 

Interesting that the GEFS mean pressure is back to exactly where we are today by the end of the run.

 

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UKMO and GFS looking similar, not that much rain for areas that need it, SE rain shield in operation perhaps

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Mildest winters on record are normally very wet and stormy as well. 

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Considering some runs have been bringing 0C 850mb air to the south, the 12Z GFS is very warm, only dipping into high single figures briefly in the next week down south.

 

Top temps from the 12Z op run from Monday: 32, 28, 26, 25, 28, 27. Not really that much of a cooldown on this evidence!

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And it just keeps going. Only 2 days failing to reach 27C right out to la la land.

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Not sure if mentioned already but the 00z ECM ENS suggests another heat up during the last third of August. 

 

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Will there actually be a breakdown in the SE - increasing potential for the dry weather to continue

Will there actually be a breakdown in the SE - increasing potential for the dry weather to continue

Still some useful rain in the coming days, but the 12z nowhere near as cool  and unsettled as the 6z was.

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GEM offers some hope for rain, though seems to be isolated

 

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Still some useful rain in the coming days, but the 12z nowhere near as cool  and unsettled as the 6z was.

The problem is the rain will be convective in nature. Some may get a deluge, others nothing. Next month and beyond we can hope for more steady rain if we're lucky

 

The problem is the rain will be convective in nature. Some may get a deluge, others nothing. Next month and beyond we can hope for more steady rain if we're lucky

Well, if we don't get significant rain through the Autumn and winter we could be in big strife next summer. 

Could this be a repeat of 1975/76 pattern?

If so, it will become pretty severe.

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