I think 1976 dry spell ended at the start of September with hurricane remnants giving several hours of steady rain, but with ground baked hard there was some flooding - well it did here. There wasn't any thunder involved to speak of.

It was the end of August (last week of school holidays?)

We were on holiday on the Isle of Wight.   It rained!   It always rained when we were on holiday in the 70s 

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In the largely forgotten hot summer of 1975, it snowed in June.

https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/1975-overshadowed-by-drought-of-2876858

I was working on a Suffolk farm at the time and remember it well. A sunny day then a sudden darkening line of very low cloud, 30 minutes of fairly heavy snow and then it stopped. None of it settled, of course, but it threw the farm owner, who was a bit of a weather buff. He was in his eighties and had a number of oft-recalled weather events from down the years but June snow was not amongst them.

For hot weather, it was the summer of 1921 and he referenced everything since then as being less extreme than that summer. 1975 was close in but in 1976 he finally conceded that 1921 was surpassed.

 I remember the June snow very well. I got caught in it walking to a polling station to vote, maybe the common market referendum, June 5th?  I think we had a couple of days of it but it didn’t stick around for long. 

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18z GFS so far very similar to 12z (up to Sunday morning).

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Again could be very wet but also warm on the 18z. But if the trough ends up even further west it will be just hot again

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Yes I have. You disprove it then? I can't prove what I've seen in August over 50 years ago,

It may have been a 5 minute wonder, I don't remember, but it did snow.

It's a freak weather moment/day etched in that you never forget.

I say 'etched in' as after, I was I always keeping an eye on the weather in the following Augusts, hoping it wouldn't be a trend.

When you are claiming snow in August - August! - I dare say the burden of proof is very much on you, not the guy who is challenging the claim. 

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Yep, all about to go bang I think with a 1976-esque deluge to end the drought,  just in time for my holiday! 😡

As I recall '76 started to end  with drizzly, damp and cool weather. (I could be wrong here though) We had our first holiday of the year around the end of August start of September. It was wet and miserable and continued for a long time after.

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GFS 0Z is a proper deluge after Monday. Some absolutely horrendous rainfall totals over the next 2 weeks, which perfectly coincides with my holidays.
I am always guaranteed to end a drought.

 

EDIT: Thankfully, ECM is a lot less bad.

Yes we need the rain, but not in the deluge that GFS is showing as it will just run off hard baked ground and cause massive flash flooding.

Slow steady rainfall would be far more welcome.

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WX summary charts show the weather for Europe being dragged kicking and screaming towards a breakdown. For week 1 the high temperatures continue south of a line from N England to the Baltic but in week 2 the heat has retreated 300/400 miles S, with the new line from S France to S Poland, and an ominous advance of something quite cold from the E across Finland. There's patchy rain in various places incl C England and Wales week 1, but in week 2 there's an enormous wodge (new technical term) of heavy rain centred over the British Isles, with some minor extensions to E & W.

FAX shows a shallow LP moving from Brittany early Sunday to Wales mid-Monday with (thundery?) troughs circulating around it

GFS Op has the same evolution; and then as this LP moves off E-wards, it's replaced by a larger and deepening Atlantic LP, to the NW on Fri 19th but by Mon 22nd 985mb Irish Sea. Then a day or two of W-lies before another LP, this time from the SW running up the W coast of Britain 995mb NI Fri 26th, then moving further N but stlll extending a broad trough S to the Channel.

GEFS - in the S, mean temps decrease from a peak ca 7C above norm Sun 14th to norm Wed 17th and then stay there with good ens agreement. Much more rain than previously forecast, esp around Wed 17th (more but not exclusively SE) and Mon 22nd (more SW). In N England and in Scotland, mean temp even a little below norm, and the further N you go, the more spread out is the rain over time. 

ECM differs from GFS about the Atlantic LP which is shown running well N of Scotland from Fri 19th and by Mon 22nd is 995mb S Norway, so light W-lies at that period and less disturbed weather

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GFS really picking up momentum for a properly wet and windy week next week now. Great 😌

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/fire-severity-index/#?tab=map&fcTime=1660388400&zoom=7&lon=-2.43&lat=52.15

 

never knew it existed - now it is exceptional

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but in week 2 there's an enormous wodge (new technical term) of heavy rain centred over the British Isles, with some minor extensions to E & W.

Speaking as a gardener and vegetable grower, an enormous wodge of heavy rain would be quite welcome!

 

Speaking as a gardener and vegetable grower, an enormous wodge of heavy rain would be quite welcome!

Looks like you will get your wish and then some. Autumn arrives next week and sticks with us according to GFS, which has resolutely stuck to its unsettled guns.

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Yes I think the next fortnight might erase any perceptions of this summer from the general public's minds. Regardless of hot spells, if August is a washout that is what sticks in people's minds, and the second half of the month looks pretty abysmal on today's evidence.

 

The only bright spot is that based on this chart at least, I might be going to the right place. Just 3mm in Guernsey!

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That’s hardly a washout.

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That’s hardly a washout.

That's only the first 10 days though, the first half of which are likely to be bone dry. The trough then sits right over the UK for another week!

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That’s hardly a washout.

Indeed, and it is one model that happens to drop the trough right on top of us. ECM is a lot dryer and warmer.

Edit: for the south

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That's only the first 10 days though. The trough then sits right over the UK for another week!

That is a lifetime away in NWP terms with several days of hot weather coming up before any kind of change to more unsettled conditions. A lot could change in FI (for better or worse!)

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That’s hardly a washout.

It's not far off a washout, given, as Rob says, this is only the first 10 days and there is then a semi stationary trough parked slap bang over the UK for the rest of the month.

IF, and its a big IF, GFS is near the mark, the second half of August will be a write-off for most.

That isn't a prediction by the way, just a view based on the last 4 or 5 GFS runs which have been resolutely unsettled.

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Hmm.. I probably shouldn't be posting here, as this forum is for the weather science and model outputs and not for some of the wet lettuce brigade such as myself  I'll make no more comments!

Oh don't say that.  There is so much to learn here.  

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It's not far off a washout, given, as Rob says, this is only the first 10 days and there is then a semi stationary trough parked slap bang over the UK for the rest of the month.

IF, and its a big IF, GFS is near the mark, the second half of August will be a write-off for most.

That isn't a prediction by the way, just a view based on the last 4 or 5 GFS runs which have been resolutely unsettled.

We all know how well such long term sections of the GFS model can turn out to be.

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