Looks OK to me - After a warm start it becomes more normal with a risk of showers. At least it's not last year!

I'd certainly take last April over this with the bright sunny days and frosty nights. Now we are getting cool, grey and wet days which isn't good for anyone really.

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Easter looks good in the S/SE.

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WX summary; below-average temps in no hurry to leave C Europe. Uk a little above norm in week 1, looks a bit cooler in week 2. Dry from Spain to Norway week 1, areas of rain on either side; in week 2 a shift with broad area of rain Atlantic - UK - Alps - both sides of Black Sea.

GFS op; pressure rising for a while to match week 1 dry area above; from Mon 18th LP moving ever close to W Ireland and displacing HP N-wards (though a better outlook for Easter Monday than yesterday, the LP holds off a bit longer) . By Fri 22nd a wide trough of LP from main centre still in Atlantic but now stretching across S Britain to Ukraine while pressure remains fairly high over Scotland. The trough slowly fills and in last frame Fri 29th is reduced to small LP 995mb Brittany

GEFS:  mild to Mon 18th then mean drops to norm and stays there, perhaps a little milder around Wed 27th. A few v cold outliers in the N later. Some rain in most runs from 18th onwards. 

ECM; brings LP in to affect Scotland Mon 18th (poorer outlook for Easter Monday, take your pick!) where it hangs around with trough extending S-wards. Then a new LP from Iceland moves in, first to Scotland Thu 21st traversing down to Spain Sat 23rd. Quite unlike GFS with pressure still quite high to E & W of UK

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Starting to look a bit "ditto" like with the general outlook.

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Washout Easter Monday?

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Washout Easter Monday?

GFS 6z has gone downhill in a big way since the 0z and now looks much more like the ECM, only with the GFS LP centre over England rather than further north.

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I'd certainly take last April over this with the bright sunny days and frosty nights. Now we are getting cool, grey and wet days which isn't good for anyone really.

Last April was sunny it is true but so far it has been quite sunny here, not too much rain and decent temperatures. Last April was a disaster for wildlife and gardeners here - literally 0.0mm rainfall and very cold.

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GFS 6z has gone downhill in a big way since the 0z and now looks much more like the ECM, only with the GFS LP centre over England rather than further north.

Looks like the TV forecasters may have to backtrack then. They seemed overly confident in talking up the prospects for later this week and into next week.

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Yes, it's looking increasingly likely that low pressure will edge in later on Sunday heralding an unsettled phase from Monday.

The positioning of the cut off low is up for grabs as to where it goes from Tuesday.

GEM,UKMO, ECM have it lingering either close to our NW or to our SW ensuring a fairly mild, often bright but potentially showery set up away from coasts whereas GFS 6z wants to drop the energy into Europe ensuring a west is best set up next week with central and eastern areas rather cool, cloudy and uninspring.

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Looks like the TV forecasters may have to backtrack then. They seemed overly confident in talking up the prospects for later this week and into next week.

Wondering why you still watch them with the poor 3rd world forecasting tools and wrongness in here, I have not watch them for long time and TV license free as well so only look out from the window to see what outside is like.  Models had been useless as if was in the past Ceefax, Teletext, newspapers and non-internet stuff we would know that Easter weekend will not be good.

 

Last April was sunny it is true but so far it has been quite sunny here, not too much rain and decent temperatures. Last April was a disaster for wildlife and gardeners here - literally 0.0mm rainfall and very cold.

If there no normal April warmest maxes of 23-26C that will be another disaster as we need to see very strong warmth for wildlife and plants to start growing proper.  This weekend 20C really nothing to me as it just a tad above average for mid-April.

 

Wondering why you still watch them with the poor 3rd world forecasting tools and wrongness in here, I have not watch them for long time and TV license free as well so only look out from the window to see what outside is like.  Models had been useless as if was in the past Ceefax, Teletext, newspapers and non-internet stuff we would know that Easter weekend will not be good.

Still watch them sometimes, but it's so frustrating when they are getting the temperature wrong by about 5c just a day out.

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 If there no normal April warmest maxes of 23-26C that will be another disaster as we need to see very strong warmth for wildlife and plants to start growing proper.  This weekend 20C really nothing to me as it just a tad above average for mid-April.

I believe the mid April average maximum temperature is nearer 10-14c North of Scotland to South Coast. 20c (68f)  is not be sniffed at in my opinion Georgy boy. 

As for next week the 12'z so far tend to want to drop the core of  lower pressure to our SW or central France favouring more of an easterly feed thus producing haar dly any excitement for east coast dwellers.  

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I would be happy with “average” to be honest. Two days this month have reached double figures here and none in the past week*. It looks like the next few days should be a little milder up here thankfully. Overall it doesn’t look too wet which is something at least. As for 20°C, that would be around average high for late May in the SE I think? (Or never here!)

*Thankfully I had a week in the pleasant spring sunshine in Rome so I cannot really complain!

P.S. I see what you did there Steve. 

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Looks like the TV forecasters may have to backtrack then. They seemed overly confident in talking up the prospects for later this week and into next week.

BBC South doubling down on a fine Monday

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Still watch them sometimes, but it's so frustrating when they are getting the temperature wrong by about 5c just a day out.

Agreed that why they not advance and worse than you see forecasts in 3rd world locations.  I still expecting to see 20-21C being reached in SE and here around 19-20C in the midlands at the weekend. Sun now very high as August so should be easily reached that levels.

and it was snow with 11dc temps last week on BBC graphics which was bugging me.

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WX summary; slightly above norm for the W edge of Europe but still cool further E in week 1. In week 2, a notable withdrawal of cold air to the far NE Europe (though becoming locally v cold there) while patches of warmth begin to spread N of the Alps, one of which is over the Low Countries. Week 1 dry in the N Sea with a circlet of rain around it (for the UK this means the W coast), week 2 rain in mid-Atlantic across S Britain and stretching patchily across to the Balkans.

Jet; fragmentary for N Atlantic and UK at first; the fragments increasingly located across France from Thu 21st and eventually joining up there. Also from the 21st for a few days a strong flow across N Africa.

GFS op; pressure quite high at first - LP develops 1000mb Hebrides Mon 18th with trough S-wards to cover all UK and the LP centre moves down to Biscay Wed 20th. New LP off W Ireland Fri 22nd pushing troughs E-wards across Britain, and the LP with its troughs all moving S so from Tue 26th mainly affecting England.

GEFS; mild to Tue 19th, cool to Sat 23rd; then mild again in S, close to norm in N. (Note - at this time of year the GEFS average mild can mean warm days and cool nights) Rain on and off from Mon 18th to Sat 30th.

ECM; the trough on Mon 18th doesn't get far S-wards and the LP in Biscay develops in situ from Wed 20th without a boost from the Atlantic, and deepens with a more definite E-ly for England from Fri 22nd and pressure staying higher for Scotland than proposed by GFS

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In the short term, GFS and ECM are quite different. The former indicating low pressure over the UK more and hence more rain. But ultimately the way each model progresses they succeed in flushing any remaining cold air north west away from mainland Europe so that even an Easterly will advect warm air across the UK. I fear that would just mean lots of low cloud picked up over the North Sea which thankfully we have largely avoided so far this spring .....

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WX temp summary; no dramatic changes, but a bit of a see-saw with warmth working N over the Balkans balanced by something a bit cooler moving S from Iceland. Week 1 very dry from Belgium up to Norway with patches of rain NW, SW and SE of that area. Week 2 only dry in very far E, significant rain for France, Balkans, E Russia.

Jet - small fragments around the UK, something more significant coming and going across N Africa

GFS op - ridge of HP SW-NE across UK weakened by LP off NW Scotland from Mon 18th but the LP not penetrating far until Sun 24th when it slips SE and arrives Portugal Tue 26th with E/NE-lies setting up over England. Eventually HP sets up to W of Ireland with N-lies esp for E coast from Fri 29th.

GEFS - mild at first mean dropping to norm from Tue 19th and staying there with differences in ens members becoming noticeable from Mon 25th (incl op & control as v cold outliers in N, even modest figures, 5s and 6s, in the snow row). Generally a little rain from 19th onwards, rather more from 25th, but in NW rain at any time.

ECM - LP penetrates earlier and starts moving SE across UK as early as Wed 20th and then (12z at time of posting) setting up over S France with greater effect for E-lies (and wet weather?) for England

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