WX summary; the cold area continues to shrink, disappointingly slowly, but in week 1 the below-average area is in a block from Scandinavia down to Greece and Turkey. Some if France and Spain at last just above average; the UK on the fringe of this. The trend continues in week 2. For rainfall, in week 1 it's widely and patchily distributed across Europe but in week 2 mostly confined to the 'below-average' area.

Named storm coming; the 'small depression' previously noted for the Channel tomorrow has been upgraded by the French MetO to named storm Diego with severest effects in France. UK forecasts increasingly tending to rain for southern counties tomorrow - was just a 'few showers for the coast; but now possibly 'rain as far north as Surrey'.

Jet - forecast varies from day to day. Currently Diego ushers in a period when the jet forms loops around France and UK but eventually moves back S-wards to affect the Med from Sat 16th

GFS op -  main LP anchored over the Baltic 975 mb with N-lies for UK for the next few days and Diego a non-event. That slowly fills and new LP off Biscay brings up S-lies by Mon 11th. That also fills without doing more than touching the W coast of UK and is followed by a general rise in pressure achieving 1030mb Cornwall Sat 16th. The HP drifts NW-wards allowing weak NW/N-lies to affect UK but not until after what looks like a very pleasant Easter weekend.

GEFS - In the S, cold until Mon 11th switching very quickly to very mild and only slowly declining to norm about Thu 21st. A little rain more likely around Wed 13th and Wed 20th (again, Diego does not feature). Similar temp profiles across UK; rain heavier in W, also rain more continual in N.

ECM - similar to GFS (Diego a bit more marked, but not much) until Wed 13th when the Atlantic LP stretches across to N Scotland and initiates several days with W-lies rather than S-lies. The rise of pressure for the Easter weekend limited to 1025 mb N France - good for the S but a disappointing weekend for the N

FAX shows Diego 987mb in France, perhaps more notable for rain than wind; otherwise like GFS but the S-lies on Mon 11th have embedded fronts so perhaps a bit wetter to start with.

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I'm not really seeing much sign in the models of this so called warm spell I keep hearing about next week...

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I'm not really seeing much sign in the models of this so called warm spell I keep hearing about next week...

There no warm spells as 15-16C is not warm but average for mid-April.  Seem this stupid climate is now trying to stay cold after the winter so more temperate temps.  Normal high of 25C are often the figure for April yearly, last year was 19C the highest here which is very poor performance.  Sun position are now like late August so it time for temperatures to of 20C should be breached often after mid-month at some point.

WX summary continues to shrink the 0C isotherm and it almost disappears in week 2 but much of C Europe remains below norm and the UK also, just about. Modest improvements from the SW and SE have been scaled back for week 2 since yesterday. Rain concentrated in arcs - week 1 Ireland - Alps - Finland, week 2 Norway - Alps - Black Sea (lots of late snowfall for the Alps?)

GFS Op - Storm Diego disappears into Europe and fills; by Mon 11th LP in SE Atlantic 975mb bringing up S/SW winds before ridge of HP SW-NE establishes over UK Thu 14th, broadening and staying to Tue 19th when it retreats to the Atlantic allowing a trough to set up from Norway to Brittany with plenty of Arctic input Fri 22nd (bad for late-blossoming orchards - hope they get their flowering over in the previous week)

GEFS - switching from cold to (very) mild on Mon 11th with the mean then slowly declining to norm and then below by FRi 22nd. Usual disagreements between ens members but op noticeably below mean and control above it during this period. Small amounts of rain from time to time. In the N less mild and back to norm or below a few days earlier than in the S. In the W esp NW somewhat more rain and in heavier bursts.

ECM - continues its disagreement with GFS on and after Wed 13th with no ridge of HP, instead the Atlantic LP drifts to NW of Scotland and produces W-lies for UK, Hp staying over France until Sun 17th when it moves N to be centred E England

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The land of eternal October strikes back. 

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ooh how easy it is to get northerlys and frigid air, now its April

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Judging by ECM ens at least there's a reasonable signal for the middle third of the month to be fairly mild, before cooler temps for the time of year going in to the final third.

Not one of those pleasingly warm Aprils but not looking particularly wet, which seems to be the main standout for the last few years - can't remember the last time we had a wet April locally.

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The 06z GFS looking good for Easter. It should be dry although not sure on cloud amounts

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?modelrun=06&charthour=12&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na

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Ens look increasingly mild from next week and fairly dry for the bulk of UK...could be onto a half decent Easter break..

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WX summary still has Spring on hold for N & C Europe including UK, these regions below norm for the next 2 weeks; any milder weather along Med coasts and real warmth off by the Caspian. Compared to yesterday, the 0C isotherm has made a comeback in the far N; and the UK looks marginally colder in week2 than week 1. Patches of rain scattered across Europe in both weeks, except that UK is extremely dry week 2.

GFS Op - LP to the SW makes an approach to to UK towards Tue 12th, enough to promote S-ly winds but also to suppress the initial ridge of HP suggested yesterday. HP re-asserts itself as a N_S ridge over western UK Fri 15th and hangs around for the forecast period but goes visiting- definite centre over England Mon 18th, to SW Eire Thu 21st, to Scotland Mon 25th. Always a risk of N-ly or (later on) NE-ly winds for Eastern UK so perhaps warm in the sun but cold at night, hence the disappointing WX averages?

Fax has the Atlantic LP closer, actually centred over England 998mb Tue 12th linked to trough extending back to Atlantic

GEFS - in the S becoming very mild Mon 11th, declining to norm more quickly than yesterday by Fri 15th then close to norm until Mon 25tth at first a little above then a little below (control is more pessimistic). Bits and pieces of rain but not as absolutely dry in all runs as WX suggests. Less extreme mildness in W and almost not at all in Scotland, the latter having a bonus(?) burst of rain Wed 13th and in a few runs big totals later.

ECM - similar to GFS at first though like FAX brings a weak trough all the way across UK Tue 12th. The following HP (in the 12z at this time) stays further S with a W-ly regime for the UK on Mon 18th.

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 WX summary temps not changing much - mild in SW and SE of Europe, the cold patch in the middle only gradually shrinking. (E Turkey having an epic in week 1 with local freezing temps only a short distance from a hot Iraq). Rain scattered across Europe in week 1 while a dry area develops from UK down to Sicily; in week 2 UK retains the dry area while more definite areas of rain show up in the central Med and E Baltic. Iceland continuously drenched/snowed on.

Jet - very little action in the N Atlantic in the next two weeks, just a suggestion of it winding up in final frame Tue 26th

GFS Op - LP off SW Ireland getting a little closer but filling by Fri 15th ( Before that FAX shows quite a mess of fronts moving N-wards in its circulation on Tue 12th) . HP well established over UK for the Easter weekend, fading but still holding off LP to NW and E  until Fri 22nd (the latter occasionally threatening a N/NE-ly for the E coast in the meantime). LP near Iceland comes to dominate Sun 24th extending a trough S-wards over UK later.

GEFS - in S, very mild by Tue 12th,  mean slowly declining to seasonal norm by Fri 22nd and staying a little below, but with control as a v cold outlier and op as a very warm one! A burst of rain at first then not much until Fri 22nd when most ens members show small amounts. Mildness less extreme in N & W but otherwise similar.

ECM - The most noticeable difference from GFS is that the Easter HP is positioned further to NE so E-lies for S England and S-lies for W Coast of UK. Then shallow LP from Atlantic appears over Cornwall Tue 19th while HP retreats to Norwegian Sea.

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Judging by ECM ens at least there's a reasonable signal for the middle third of the month to be fairly mild, before cooler temps for the time of year going in to the final third.

Not one of those pleasingly warm Aprils but not looking particularly wet, which seems to be the main standout for the last few years - can't remember the last time we had a wet April locally.

Indeed, especially last year  when I recorded precisely 0.0 mm which maybe affected birds and other wildlife as much as the cold weather. But with 10mm so far and mixed temperatures growth of plants and trees looks more normal this year. Just don't want a cold end to April as the Blue Tits have now completed nest building so eggs will be incubating then - all perished last year.

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Looking at the GEFS there's not much rain forecast for the London and SE. Combined with the generally low rainfall for the last three months here, we could see the trees being delayed from coming into leaf by the shortage of water, as has happened around here for at least the last couple of years - matching the dry Springs as noted by Hippydave above.

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Indeed, especially last year  when I recorded precisely 0.0 mm which maybe affected birds and other wildlife as much as the cold weather. But with 10mm so far and mixed temperatures growth of plants and trees looks more normal this year. Just don't want a cold end to April as the Blue Tits have now completed nest building so eggs will be incubating then - all perished last year.

  I agree.  Two such Aprils (May was cold too) would pretty much finish off what we have left of our wildlife, by reducing numbers to such low levels.

The field crickets survived last spring, but in reduced numbers. They have only just been recovered to minimul sustainable levels.  The interview linked to is with Mike Coates, whom I know. He is the project manager at Farnham:

field cricket – UK Wildlife (uk-wildlife.co.uk) 

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Could be another one of those dramatic flips in temperature over the next couple of weeks from 20c later this week to possibly sub 0c minimums next week based on GFS.

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10-day summary still showing a modest approach to warming up. As yesterday, below norm in C Europe week 1 (W Russia down to Greece) with a suggestion that this below norm patch moves W-wards (Norway to Alps) in week 2. Week 1 dry in Tyrrhenian Sea and rain all around it (esp NW Britain); week 2 a big patch of heavy rain from Atlantic to Alps and up to W Russia, with the UK on the northern edge of this.

Jet has little action near UK until Tue 19th when it develops across France and N Spain with the occasional loop bringing it nearer UK

GFS op - current LP off Ireland collapses into slack LP N Scotland. Then N-S ridge of HP from Fri for Easter weekend but (unlike previous) not holding up as shallow LP 1005mb appears over Scotland Easter Monday (18th), enlarging to cover all UK Thu 21st then drifting S before a new LP sets up W of Ireland Sun 24th. This is linked to a trough extending E-wards so no warm southerlies. Doesn't look as wet to S of UK as the summary charts.

GEFS - (v) mild to Mon 18th, dropping to norm with fairly good ens agreement to Thu 21st, after which mean stays near norm but ens members diverge. After a wet day today, dry-ish for a time then rain common but not intense in most runs from Mon 18th for most of England and Wales, a day or two earlier in Scotland, a day later in E England.

ECM - As GFS to Mon 18th when the shallow LP stays out to the NW and the centre stays there though pressure drops generally over the UK to Thu 21st. By Fri 22nd the two models have converged again.

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Not looking quite so good now for this weekend, not the 20c that the forecasters have hyped up, but more like 16c and overcast perhaps. Next week also not looking good at all, very disappointing.

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A steady as you go April with a gentle warming in line with the advancing season in light breezes this week. All very useable and good for the growers.

Some afternoon showers and cooler next week if that trough settles near us. A night frost cannot be ruled out either as the upper air could be quite cool at least for a time.

There is still enough consensus from me across the NWP, particularly the UKMO suggesting the settled conditions could hang around next week with any showery weather potentially confined to the far west and SW. 

 

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A steady as you go April with a gentle warming in line with the advancing season in light breezes this week. All very useable and good for the growers.

Some afternoon showers and cooler next week if that trough settles near us. A night frost cannot be ruled out either as the upper air could be quite cool at least for a time.

There is still enough consensus from me across the NWP, particularly the UKMO suggesting the settled conditions could hang around next week with any showery weather potentially confined to the far west and SW. 

Looks OK to me - After a warm start it becomes more normal with a risk of showers. At least it's not last year!

 Looks OK to me - After a warm start it becomes more normal with a risk of showers. At least it's not last year!

Indeedy Dave. Its not last April. That in itself is a blessing. 

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