I see the model struggles continue
My usual first check of the ECM ens suggested an improvement from Boxing Day onwards IMBY, with a better cold grouping and the cold cluster arguably being the majority for 3-4 days. The mean tends to back this up with it being as low as I've seen it.
The ECM Op is one of those 'what do you expect when you're so far south' kind of runs - good for areas not too far North of me, chilly and damp IMBY.
I didn't see the GFS 00z ens but 6z set suggest (as has been apparent for a few days I guess) game on for areas North, very uncertain for further south with the boundary line between cold/chilly/mild still TBC. That boundary could be very snowy for a time but below the line the cold or less cold rain is unlikely to be as appealing
In terms of the Xmas period T2M temps (again IMBY) bit of a difference ECM and GFS, the former has 2 main clusters, chilly or mild, with the Op sitting somewhere between the two. Mild looks more likely than chilly. GFS ens rather more confident it'll be mild until circa 27th/28th when chilly or cold becomes more likely.
All in all I think the general setup is looking good this morning but still very uncertain for the far south and 'messy' for others a bit further North. For Scotland and maybe Northern England a fairly lengthy spell of cold weather with some snow opportunities is looking like the favoured option. I guess the nice thing is it's looking very likely we'll get Northern blocking, just need the jet to play ball so the LPs interact favourably with the cold air flooding south west.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge