Oh my gosh. I hadn't looked at the UKMO until just now.

Christmas Day

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

I'm Adrian Tilley from Matlock Derbyshire and a newbie on here though I've been an avid Lurker since 2004- so thought I'd post for the 1st time - introduce myself and if I may ask a question? Can anyone advise a rule of thumb for what surface temperatures one can derive from using the 850 Hpa charts - I know that its different Winter to Summer and under temperature inversions?

So looking at the UK MO 12Z it shows North Midlands northwards under c. -5 at 850 Hpa for Christmas Day so what temperature could reasonably be predicted at ground level?

Many Thanks

Adrian Tilley

Since the 00z runs we've seen both UKMO and GEM switch to much drier, generally cold outcomes for Xmas Day.

UKMO just has a few rain showers in the far southwest, while GEM has a bit of light rain as far east as Dorset in the morning, drying up in the afternoon.

Will the ECM 12z leave the GFS 12z out on its own with a thoroughly soggy day in southern England?

For now, I'm more interested in it staying dry than snowing - that looks like a more sensible thing to seek for the days after... though I'm starting to suspect that precipitation will play 'hard to get' once it's become cold enough down here (far-southern England). Happens most times .

Hi Adrian (and welcome). The UKMO charts actually have corresponding modelled 2 metre temperature charts. This is the one for Christmas Day: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK12_168_38.png 

Welcome and congratulations on your first post 

In these set ups the 850s don’t necessarily mean everything. Typically -5 is enough for snow in the majority of cases but it could be higher in set ups

Temperatures at 2m would be cold, low single digit 

1881 I think :)

I see that since I last had time to look at the models, almost 24 hours ago, the doom and gloom has been replaced by renewed hope.  Fingers crossed that the models doesn't oscillate back the other way again in their next runs.

Looking colder in the SE on the ECM 144.  Interesting to see what precipitation these models depict.

Bank

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Merry Christmas from the ECM 12z

truly is a sensational chart for Xmas day

How I see it at 168

GFS / GEM have the cold Northern England on 25th

UKMET / ECM cold for most

If you want a wintry chart for longevity potential this is it

Years ago this place would have been in total meltdown! We seem to have lost a lot of the old characters like Steve Murr etc which is sad at this special moment

Generally over the past few days ECM has always been more likely to get the colder air south for Xmas than GFS, albeit not a clear cut thing.

The T192 chart is very nice viewing - very cold and raw

It'll be interesting seeing where the respective Op runs sits later - I'd be stunned if they're not still showing considerable uncertainty for Xmas and after. Would be pleasant to be proved wrong of course

ECM is a real beauty 

What a spell this could turn out to be.

I think battle hardened is the reason. Most of us have seen better than this evaporate into thin air from closer than a week away! But it certainly gives hope and interest in the run up to Christmas and that is certainly in short supple elsewhere.

Very true - and Gary Sarre would be all over it - I’m very confident 😂

I think the forum is as good now as it’s ever been for content on the MO thread. 

I miss some of the characters / posts that come with it. As you say some memories.

The content is probably as good as it’s been. Probably helped by several poor winters 😂😂. 

Hi Adrian, and welcome. About when I started lurking. I then joined for a couple of years but left for a bit when this section got a bit heated and unbalanced at both extremes. Has improved in the last few years.

As a rough and ready rule of thumb I generally add about 8C in winter just to get my head round the area we are working in. But as others have said it can vary from that by several degrees depending on all sorts of factors, some of which have been mentioned.

Perhaps you will bring us some luck. I've not had lying snow of note in the winter months for ten years!

Excellent Christmas ECM run. South back in the game for a white Christmas.