I find myself in a strange place as eager for the next run as a child on Christmas Eve waiting for Christmas Day to happen. Let’s hope that next run is a cracker!

Is it me or are there even more flip-flops than a summer beach party, and more than The Beast of 2018?

With international travel still way down I wonder how much less data from aircraft is going into the models than a couple of years ago?

The ECM mentioned this last March, which was nice to see - backs up what I've been saying for years!

Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

and also:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2020/2020-crazy-year-satellite-navigation-data-and-nwp

"One of the COVID-related issues ECMWF was facing at the time was the significant loss of aircraft measurements. In recognition of these difficulties, Dr Peter Platzer – CEO of Spire – offered both ECMWF and the Met Office free access to the Spire near-real-time GNSS-RO data on 3 April 2020."

Note that there are far more flights going on than there were in spring 2020, so the effects will be lessened, and the contribution from the new satellite wind data (as above) should also help mitigate the effects.

Anticipation…..🤦🏻‍♂️, it is intriguing 

I don’t think there’s been flips from the models , the HP theme has been rock solid for a good week with cross model agreement

The flip has just been the positioning which with UK has bigger on impacts our weather compared to other parts of the globe 

FWIW, there's tons of aircraft data available at the moment:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover?facets=undefined&time=2021121800,0,2021121800&obs=aircraft&Flag=all

Pre-Covid, we would normally see it drop below 100000 aircraft obs over Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

yes really liking the trend this morning from the models, Norwegian low moving south rather than east to west. Hopefully plenty of time for further adjustments.

Quite a significant snow event in some northern parts for Xmas day Hopefully the risk will adjust south to affect a wider area

Perhaps they will be discussing the weather at COBRA meeting today

Brian Gaze should be Zoomed in on the meeting!

I think Sean in Exeter will like this one:

I just saw that Rob - one to bank! A pity it's over a week away - but ice days for many and of course heavy snow for the SW if this did come! An upgrade despite in the 06z GFS operational despite cold being delayed and what now looks like it will be a disappointingly mild and wet xmas for most of the south. - I still think this milder blip (sods law over xmas) will be very brief because the Met Office has been very bullish over the past week about it remaining below average or rather cold and they mention something about the middle of the period (26th/27th) here which could be what the GFS Op run is suggesting. At least the possibility remains there.

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 22 Dec - Friday 31 Dec

A cloudy start to this period but remaining generally dry with just some light rain possible in north Scotland. This dry weather continues for a time with variable cloud cover across most of the nation, although occasional showers may be possible for north and eastern coastal regions. Towards the middle of this period the threat of rain or wintery conditions increases, particularly towards the south and south west. During this time some stronger winds are possible, although these are likely to be confined to southern regions. Temperatures likely to be rather cold with overnight frosts and increased risk of fog. Settled conditions however are likely to remain through the last few days of the year with a continued risk of frost and fog.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Dec 2021

Looks so perfect for snow in our region but what a pity it's over a week away and the models can't even get the run up to Xmas right!

The 06z ENS upper mean for London on 24th December is now +2.3c 

Yes please I'm in west Dorset for Christmas. 

I've decided to write off Christmas Day in terms of seeing the white stuff in my back yard here at my end of Kent (apart from the type being dealt by local dealers for £20 a g) but the last week of 2021 does offer some potential in terms of seeing some wintry weather. Until all that, I am glad that the big winds shown in earlier runs seem to be put to one side . . . for now, but looks like being rather breezy on the big day.

All looks a bit 78 ish to me.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1978&maand=12&dag=29&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

Lies, it only needs to be south of the border 😜🤣🤣🤣

#supportingimbyismsince11am

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Be interesting to see how year on year/monthly accuracy was impacted throughout the pandemic.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

And don't forget - that delivered a sub zero January CET.

1940 style cold snap arriving if GFS verifies....

Bone Chill nights under snow cover ...

Wonder is snow line will be like 2010 along the channel?

Everyone is cold by 26th

On the 25th your talking an adjustment of 50 miles will affect millions of people