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Global Warming
29 November 2021 21:52:57

This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  


For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.     


Historic CET summary for December


1981-2010 (30 years) 4.63C


1991-2020 (30 years) 4.97C  


2001-2020 (last 20 years) 5.07C  


Last December was close to average at 4.8C. 2015 saw the record CET of 9.7C. We have not had a colder than average December since 2010. 


Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961    


Direct link to a larger version of the chart


IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Current model output     


GEFS - 850's show a lot of scatter. Generally a little below average for the first couple of weeks. No signal beyond that. 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=


ECM (de Bilt) shows surface temperatures looking cold from the 6th to the 12th before things warm up at the end of the run. That perhaps shows what many of the models are hinting at right now - cold weather to our east with the UK on the boundary. 


http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 


Met Office contingency planners outlook  


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf


Mild December twice as likely as normal.


Probability of a cold winter also looking quite low.

ARTzeman
30 November 2021 10:13:08

Prediction in. Hope it goes low. Thank you for running the monthly competion.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2021 15:47:39

Mine’s in too!     Hoping not to end the year at the very bottom.  But hey!  Somebody’s got to be last!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2021 15:58:54

Exceptionally difficult month to predict.  Scandi high looks possible but we could end up with south westerlies. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
kendalian
30 November 2021 22:26:55

So December completes the 12 month's stats for 1991-2020 and by my reckoning all 12 months have been warmer than their 1981-2010 equivalents. 


10 years ago we completed the 1981-2010 series V 1971-2000 equivalent where 11 out of 12 months were warmer. Only December was cooler which was of course book ended by the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 


Has there been an equivalent continuous warming spell in the CET series? One for the stats gurus!!


 

Bertwhistle
01 December 2021 08:03:09

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.


Anyone help?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
western100
01 December 2021 08:44:34
Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Frank H
01 December 2021 09:47:43

Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?

Originally Posted by: western100 


4.7c


Wrightington, Wigan
Saint Snow
01 December 2021 10:56:27


Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.


Anyone help?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
01 December 2021 11:06:09

I'm itching to see the predictions for December 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Frank H
01 December 2021 11:37:39


I'm itching to see the predictions for December 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.


So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.


Would be useful if GW could issue the December predictions before updating the final November data.


Wrightington, Wigan
Bertwhistle
01 December 2021 12:24:34


 


 


He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Thanks Saint. Thought that was the case.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Saint Snow
01 December 2021 18:53:51


 


With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.


So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.


 


Originally Posted by: Frank H 


 


Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.


It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 December 2021 20:47:02
Going to be a photo finish...
Saint Snow
02 December 2021 00:34:22

Going to be a photo finish...

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


 


Have you gone above or below average?




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
02 December 2021 09:27:02
I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold
ARTzeman
02 December 2021 11:03:13

Met Office Hadley      7.3c      Anomaly       2.5c provisional to 1st


Metcheck                   4.94c    Anomaly        -0.05c


Netweather                6.82c    Anomaly        1.73c


Peasedown St John    3.62c    Anomaly    -1.28c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 December 2021 06:11:16


 


 


Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.


It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
03 December 2021 08:50:57


It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


I did win it once, I think the first one back in 2009 (?)


I think my 'gaming the system' with my December entry contributed to what was initially the requirement to submit entries by PM for Nov & Dec rather than post them in the thread. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
03 December 2021 09:07:33

I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


 


I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. 


Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way!




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
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