This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for December
1981-2010 (30 years) 4.63C
1991-2020 (30 years) 4.97C
2001-2020 (last 20 years) 5.07C
Last December was close to average at 4.8C. 2015 saw the record CET of 9.7C. We have not had a colder than average December since 2010.
Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
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Current model output
GEFS - 850's show a lot of scatter. Generally a little below average for the first couple of weeks. No signal beyond that.
ECM (de Bilt) shows surface temperatures looking cold from the 6th to the 12th before things warm up at the end of the run. That perhaps shows what many of the models are hinting at right now - cold weather to our east with the UK on the boundary.
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Mild December twice as likely as normal.
Probability of a cold winter also looking quite low.
Edited by moderator
31 January 2022 11:07:14
| Reason: Not specified