This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.  

For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.     

Historic CET summary for December

1981-2010 (30 years) 4.63C

1991-2020 (30 years) 4.97C  

2001-2020 (last 20 years) 5.07C  

Last December was close to average at 4.8C. 2015 saw the record CET of 9.7C. We have not had a colder than average December since 2010. 

Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961    

Direct link to a larger version of the chart

Current model output     

GEFS - 850's show a lot of scatter. Generally a little below average for the first couple of weeks. No signal beyond that. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw= 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM (de Bilt) shows surface temperatures looking cold from the 6th to the 12th before things warm up at the end of the run. That perhaps shows what many of the models are hinting at right now - cold weather to our east with the UK on the boundary. 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

Mild December twice as likely as normal.

Probability of a cold winter also looking quite low.

Prediction in. Hope it goes low. Thank you for running the monthly competion.

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Mine’s in too!     Hoping not to end the year at the very bottom.  But hey!  Somebody’s got to be last!   

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Exceptionally difficult month to predict.  Scandi high looks possible but we could end up with south westerlies. 

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So December completes the 12 month's stats for 1991-2020 and by my reckoning all 12 months have been warmer than their 1981-2010 equivalents. 

10 years ago we completed the 1981-2010 series V 1971-2000 equivalent where 11 out of 12 months were warmer. Only December was cooler which was of course book ended by the Decembers of 1981 and 2010 

Has there been an equivalent continuous warming spell in the CET series? One for the stats gurus!!

 

Just sent my bid to GW this morning but think that might imply a penalty. Can't remember whether it's midnight 30th or midnight first the cut-off for penalty free predictions.

Anyone help?

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Hi

What’s the 61-90 Dec CET please?

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4.7c

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He said that penalties would be applied this month for entries received after 23.59 on the last day

 

 

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I'm itching to see the predictions for December 

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With a Nov cet of 7.30c you're in second place, 0.44c behind the leader.

So you'll need your Dec prediction to be at least 0.44 different to SSWD's prediction.

Would be useful if GW could issue the December predictions before updating the final November data.

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Thanks Saint. Thought that was the case.

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Aye, I'd worked that out and have made my Dec prediction a tad more away from average than I'd normally do.

It'd be an anticlimax if we were too close to each other.

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Going to be a photo finish...

 

Have you gone above or below average?

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I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

Met Office Hadley      7.3c      Anomaly       2.5c provisional to 1st

Metcheck                   4.94c    Anomaly        -0.05c

Netweather                6.82c    Anomaly        1.73c

Peasedown St John    3.62c    Anomaly    -1.28c. 

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It’s about time you won this competition!  You’ve had enough practice by now!  
Mind you, so have I, but I guess you can’t teach an old dog new tricks!  

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I did win it once, I think the first one back in 2009 (?)

I think my 'gaming the system' with my December entry contributed to what was initially the requirement to submit entries by PM for Nov & Dec rather than post them in the thread. 

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I had a hunch you'd go around average and, given the bouncing around of the models, I had to flip a coin. 

Current output strongly suggests I've gone the wrong way!

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The models are so all over the place that I can't even work out which way that means you've gone !
Latest MetO forecast in my area looks like maxes of 5-8c for the next week or so , so brutally average if anything

 

 

I've gone a little below.

My first instinct was to go somewhere around 5c, but I felt you'd be somewhere around this figure so went for the 'all or nothing' punt.

If I'd gone 5.5c/5.6c, I'd currently be feeling pretty confident!

 

 

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I'm just over a degree off the lead in 4th place and expected SSWD to go around or a bit above average and that Saint would try to avoid him; but not knowing whether it would be higher or lower.

Went for a low punt, hopefully enough to avoid you both without being too unrealistic.

There's also Bolty close by in third place to consider.

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I went for 4.5 in this. Near-average but with the chance of a few cold bursts keeping the CET down a bit. It could easily go belly up for me though at this stage though, especially if I've overestimated any cold snaps.

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Met Office Hadley       5.4c      Anomaly      0.4c provisional to 2nd

Metcheck                    3.90c    Anomaly      -1.90c

Netweather                 4.46c    Anomaly      -0.65c 

Peasedown St John   4.6c    Anomaly     -0.3c.          

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