Right, well I know you can't catch me up because I've done exactly the same 

 

If Frank H has gone a lot lower, I genuinely hope he wins the entire thing by being spot on 

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I went for 3.33c so would need it to be below about 3.55 to finish ahead of you if you went for 4.50.

There's still a small chance for others to be involved but we really need to see GW's table first.

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I'm pretty sure I'm not close enough despite a good November (7.35) so have gone out on a mild limb as it's always possible if the high sits over europe and feeds in a long fetch SW - unlikely but I've gone for 7.25.

Which average though? There are 3 mentioned. Could make the difference between SSWD being catchable by Saint or not.

Currently I think that the month could still go mild, average or cool. I don't think anything extreme is likely either way for the monthly CET as a whole, but of course it's very early days and there is still potential for hair dryer or beast 

 

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Things looking average to cool next week or so. For those who like colder winters and below average months then its a better start to winter than recent times. 

December CET prediction of 5 would be a good bet based on model output IMO of course.

2021 looks like it might scrape under 91-20 average 

YTD

61-90 +0.68

81-10 +0.28

91-20 -0.09

It would need something very cold in Dec for 2021 to get under the 81-20 year average. Outlook does not support a severely cold month. Average to slightly below more likely. 

61-90 .......i think we can kiss goodbye those averages for a few hundred years when global climate is probably nothing like it is now. I will not be arouind then but maybe a turtle might be still around then to let everyone know if 61-90 is useful. 

 

 

 

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There's always next year!

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So this year either
We finally get a cold December after an 11 year wait since the extreme cold overdose of 2010 or
I get to win the competition

Either is good for me... a cold December is a festive December

 

Does anyone know if Hadley are going to update the 61-90 benmark it uses to calculate averages?? As you say that period bears no reflection on the modern climate and general significant warming trend of the past 30 years. We may never see a sub 10c year again in the CET.

Also it would be good if the 91-20 period could be used as the benchmark in this CET competition as from Jan 2022 as basically every single month,barring the odd exceoption is above the 61-90 averages.

The Hadley CET benchmark is way out of date now.

That’s very magnanimous of you!  Oh wait!  You’re a snow lover!  

It looks like we have a very exciting finish this year!  Good luck to you all.  May the coldest win.  

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I think the example of 2010 proves that even in a globally warm world it is still easily possible to have a local cold year.
For that reason I don't think we've seen our last sub 10c year on the CET nor our last cold and snowy winter.

I agree, it’s certainly possible!  Before 2010 we were saying it would never happen.  Yet that was one of the coldest and snowiest I’ve experienced here and I remember winters back as far as the early sixties.  

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Met Office Hadley          5.1c       Anomaly       0.1c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                       4.30c     Anomaly       -0.70c

Netweather                    4.86c     Anomaly       -0.25c

Peasedown St John     5.23c      Anomaly       0.38c.

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If I remember correctly, we very nearly had a cold December in 2017. It was a very mild run in the days up to and over the Christmas period that stopped it from having a below-average anomaly. There was about a two-week period from the 8th-21st that was cold and there was also a few cold days in the lead up to the New Year.

Edit: and that big snowstorm across the southern half of the country on the 10th.

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Yes IMBY I remember being surprisingly well catered for... shall we say... by the snowstorm of the 10th in 2017. It wasn't much hyped either IIRC.
Dec 2017 was all set up to be cold with the first half being well below average but mild zonality had set in by Xmas leaving the month as a whole close to normal.
Dec 2012 followed a similar CET pattern with a cold first half and mild second half(although with a load more rain, and frustratingly many times when it just wasn't q cold enough for snow, in my area anyway).

Met Office Hadley       5.2c     Anomaly      0.1c provisional to 4th

Metcheck                    4.40c   Anomaly      -0.59c

Netweather                 5.02c   Anomaly      -0.08c

Peasedoawn St John    5.15c  Anomaly    0.25c. 

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I'm happy with what I've gone for this month. 4.75C

I think we'll have to wait til January for any dramatic cold.

 

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Met Office Hadley       5.3c      Anomaly      0.0c provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                   4.22c     Anomaly       -0.77c

Netweather                5.01c     Anomaly       -0.1c

Peasedown St John    4.77c    Anomaly     -0.13c.   

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Met Office Hadley       5.0c      Anomaly      -0.2c provisional to 6th

Metcheck                    4.03c    Anomaly      -0.96c

Netweather                 4.81c    Anomaly      -0.29c

Peasedown St John   4.92c    Anomaly     0.02c.

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Hey Guys...
How do I find out where the Annual CET competition results are?
Do we have to register somewhere to be able to view them?
You guys obviously know whats going on. I haven't seen any results.
Grandad

Probably the best way to do this is to PM GW. He runs the competition and is pretty good.

 

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Met Office Hadley       4.9c     Anomaly       -0.2c provisional to 7th

Metcheck                    4.18c   Anomaly       -0.82c

Netweather                 4.82c   Anomaly       -0.29c

Peasedown St  John    5.4c    Anomaly      0.5c. 

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Each month GW will post both a table of the entries for the current month (in that month's thread), and the amended league table for the previous month (in that previous month's thread).

Depending on how busy he is, that could be a few days after, or over a week. 

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I must admit this is much higher than I expected for the first week. I was banking on something closer to 3.5C and then rising after that. Doesn't bode well for my slightly below average prediction unless we get that high pressure to sit on us for a couple of weeks!

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I've won more "months" this year than when I topped the competition in 2016, but decided my strategy of going either high or low had back fired at least as often as it had been successful, so I went around average for December, having given up any hope of winning the competition in October.   Well done to the November winners and good luck to all those in the hunt.  I await the list of predictions with interest.

The CET for the months of this year have been notoriously difficult to predict and some of the stratagems deployed in the past by some of the more seasoned competitors have not been effective.  I am convinced that as the weather gyrates in ever more extreme episodes in response to the background warming, that more extreme months will become even more frequent, making an already fiendishly difficult competition even more challenging.  

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Met Office Hadley        5.0c      Anomaly      -0.0c provisional to 8th

Metcheck                     4.30c    Anomaly       -0.70c

Netweather                  4.97c    Anomaly       -0.14c

Peasedown St John      5.04c    Anomaly     0.14c.

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