Are we going to get it here?

R.

Its going to Greenland and will probably help keep us warm for a bit longer

As Larry continues northward, it will evolve into a potent snowmaker. The GFS model is calling for Larry to dump around 20 gigatonnes of snow in three days across southeast Greenland. That would be roughly 3% of a typical year’s worth of snow for the entire Greenland ice sheet, based on 1981-2010 data.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/09/peak-tropics-two-noteworthy-landfalls-and-four-other-areas-to-watch/

TS Nicholas now named and likely to affect Texas coast with 2-4' storm surge and 10-15" of rain.

If its track takes it further unto the Gulf, it could strengthen to a hurricane, drawing on the warm water there

TS Nicholas getting stronger in the Gulf. But expected to make landfall in Texas before further development possible. 

Nicolas became a hurricane and has made landfall, big rain maker and flooding likely

Early days but people living on the eastern seaboard may want to keep an eye on this storm the models are starting to pick up on next weekend - it could be what appears to be disturbance No 1 currently developing off coast of western Africa a few hundred miles south of the cape verde Islands: It's very early days of course!).

JFF Bermuda's in the eye of the storm +306 according to the 12z run?

Regardless of the track looks like this disturbance No 1 about 150 mile south of the cape verde Islands, could turn into our next major hurricane of the season.

JFF Bermuda's in the eye of the storm +306 according to the 12z run?

Regardless of the track looks like this disturbance No 1 about 150 mile south of the cape verde Islands, could turn into our next major hurricane of the season.

Interesting how last night and night before last on NOA NHC both Tropical disturbances 1 & 2 had an 80% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and today it shows on NOA NHC that it now has a 70% chance of formation within the next 48 hours....will this trend continue?

 

 

Interesting how last night and night before last on NOA NHC both Tropical disturbances 1 & 2 had an 80% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and today it shows on NOA NHC that it now has a 70% chance of formation within the next 48 hours....will this trend continue?

Edit: Tropical disturbance number 1 is now a medium risk 60% chance of formation within the next 48hrs.

Was at 90% last night, down to 80 and then 60 and most recently 60%.

If it had a 90% chance of formation 24/36 hrs ago then one would have expected it to develop into a tropical depression and then a cyclone by now- but nope looks like it's failing - what could be causing this given the SST's are so warm? Is it wind sheer or tropical disturbance number 3 that is causing it to diminish?? 

 

Edit: Tropical disturbance number 1 is now a medium risk 60% chance of formation within the next 48hrs.

Was at 90% last night, down to 80 and then 60 and most recently 60%.

If it had a 90% chance of formation 24/36 hrs ago then one would have expected it to develop into a tropical depression and then a cyclone by now- but nope looks like it's failing - what could be causing this given the SST's are so warm? Is it wind sheer or tropical disturbance number 3 that is causing it to diminish?? 

Neither of the tropical storms in the Atlantic appear to be fulfilling earlier expectations

96L off Carolina now expected to be steered north of the Gulf Stream over cooler water which will cut its off energy source

95L in tropical Atlantic is expected to run up against a trough over the Leeward Islands with high wind shear and some dry airr as well, and may well collapse there.

If either or both survive they will be Odette and Peter

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/09/atlantic-disturbances-95l-and-96l-expected-to-soon-develop/

Odette has come and gone near Newfoundland. only just qualifying as a named storm

95l has become TD16 near the leeward Islands but will probably veer N towards Bermuda as TS Peter - hurricane strength not expected EDIT now (1200) officially named Peter

97L near Africa may develop quickly at first but is expected to be killed off by dry air after a few days EDIT now officially TD17 and forecast to become TS Rose

Tropical Storm #Rose has formed in eastern tropical Atlantic - the 17th named storm of 2021 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. Only two other years in satellite era (1966 onwards) have had 17+ Atlantic named storms by September 19: 2005, 2020. pic.twitter.com/AVvvgdap9s

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 19, 2021

Odette may revive briefly, Peter and Rose well away from land, new storm leaving Africa likely to become Sam and a good chance of it getting into the Caribbean.

Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda are the names to use up then start again at A - no greek letters this year

Peter and Rose are almost dead but Sam could be more like the real deal

#98L #Sam-to-be pic.twitter.com/quFSDXt4GI

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) September 21, 2021

Sam expected to become a Major Hurricane by Monday

Odette trying to reform in the north atlantic

Sam expected to become a Major Hurricane by Monday

Odette trying to reform in the north atlantic

 

Yes Sam - I was watching that development on GFS as some models take it into eastern seaboard and others take it right over Bermuda as a major hurricane so one to watch.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Sam now a Hurricane, and will bomb over the next 24 hours into a major storm. 

Probably will miss everything though  and head towards Bermuda

Eventual track is all to play for

One wild card in this forecast is the potential perturbations to the jet stream created by Tropical Storm Mindulle in the Northwest Pacific. Mindulle is predicted to intensify into a powerful category 4 typhoon that will recurve to the north near Japan next week. When Mindulle merges with the jet stream, it is likely to cause a major ripple effect in the jet that could influence the steering of Sam.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/09/tropical-storm-sam-forms-in-central-tropical-atlantic/

#Sam BAM pic.twitter.com/Idp4pZNr1E

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) September 24, 2021