Ok fair enough temperatures are close to or a little below average. But I'm still a little bemused at how people can be describing the recent Weather as 'lovely Spring days' it's as if some people are too easily pleased!

And I'm pretty sure it's much less than nearly half the UK population living in the SE more like 1/4

South East quadrant - SE + London + EA = 27 million population!

---

 

South East quadrant - SE + London + EA = 27 million population!

So you are including EA in this also. I'm not going to bother checking your Maths for this, but UK population is around 70m so that's still a fair bit less than half

---

Anyway back on topic, the next week at least is still looking cooler than average and wet including in the SE where everyone lives

---

So we are getting our April weather in May this year. Does this mean June will be may-like, July like June and August distinctly Julyish?

---

 

So 16c is considered good now for the middle of May in the South is it? And I think the vast majority of the rest of the country has had a lot more than 'the odd shower'

For the first half of May yes 16C is nice especially with sunshine. But yhe 16C is the lowest maximum it's reached in almost a week, my location saw high teens with other areas in low 20's a few day's back. So nothing spectacular or record breaking but all in all good May weather still.

Quoting the comments I hoped I would not be able to see, but can still  see because others engage:

"If you see what the BBC longer range is now hinting at, you won't be expecting anything more summery. They have specifically referenced 2012 and patterns being similar.

 

They seem to be erring towards a write off summer, with perhaps a 35% chance of a few hot spells. Not looking good for 2021 at all."

 

This is not true and nothiing  of the sort has been said!  In fact, the summer outlook is for above average.

 

It is the same every time things look bad. I am also a sufferer of depression and I know this game:  Involve everybody else in your misery for your own needs. And it is working.  I am getting too depressed to come on this thread.

Please! DO Not Engage in this!  It is nothing to do with weather or models.  Please do not enourage it! Silence is the best medicine.

---

Any decent weather keeps getting put back in the model runs now for some time. Central Europe has the best of the weather at the moment with temperatures in the mid 20's and looking to continue there. Back in Glos'shire its quite bleak with unsettled conditions and cool temperatures, rainfall for this month edging 60mm. Hopefully this current pattern will break allowing something more settled.

Déjà vu this morning. Same old models. This is one of the most persistent spells of the same weather since, well, the persistent cold dry weather of last month.

All the fault of that damned Greenland high. Sitting up there aloof, pushing all the crap down South.

---

Just removed a number of OT comments. 

---

16-dayer shows NW Europe remaining cool for both weeks, joined by NE Europe n week 2 where it has been rather warm recently. Rain mostly over S Britain week 1 moving away to give a band over continental Europe week 2

GFS shows LP generally over the UK for the next week with new centres drifting in from the Atlantic across central Britain esp Mon 17th and Thu 20th, the latter generating a N-ly as it moves on to the E. This is briefly displaced by a toppling ridge of HP Wed 26th (with a bit of warmth) before new LP over Biscay appears and moves  N to Ireland Sat 29th

EDIT FAX shows more localised troughs along the Channel until Mon 17th followed by a N-ly controlled by LP further N over Scotland Mon 17th

GEFS mean temp stays resolutely close to or a little below average, and with showery rain throughout (but op & control both dip some 7 or 8C below to match the N-ly mentioned above, ca Sat 23rd, followed by a bounce back for the op above norm on the 28th). In Scotland more runs also show the dip around the 23rd, but less of the showery rain towards the end.

ECM similar to GFS though the LPs mentioned are deeper

---

If the 0Z verifies the snow potential thread will be back.

Wouldn't rule out low ground snowfall (in Scotland) in June at this point!

---

 

Ok fair enough temperatures are close to or a little below average. But I'm still a little bemused at how people can be describing the recent Weather as 'lovely Spring days' it's as if some people are too easily pleased!

And I'm pretty sure it's much less than nearly half the UK population living in the SE more like 1/4

   well near the coast here there has been a good deal of sunshine this week which is pretty usual in spring showery set ups  and t ho temps are still a bit below par  it has felt warm in the strong sunshine 

The synoptic charts are giving me cause for concern. For weeks now there has been a persistent  high pressure over Newfoundland and another high pressure over Greenland. Occasionally they thrust a ridge in our direction which gives us the presistently low temperatures.

Hardly any mention is made of this. I've noticed this on the synoptic charts on Look East for ages now.

 

---

   well near the coast here there has been a good deal of sunshine this week which is pretty usual in spring showery set ups  and t ho temps are still a bit below par  it has felt warm in the strong sunshine 

Yes that's right at this time of year even with temperatures s little below average it will feel warm in the sun, but that doesn't make the conditions 'average' as some people have suggested, it will very likely be a much cooler and wetter than average month.

---

The synoptic charts are giving me cause for concern. For weeks now there has been a persistent  high pressure over Newfoundland and another high pressure over Greenland. Occasionally they thrust a ridge in our direction which gives us the presistently low temperatures.

Hardly any mention is made of this. I've noticed this on the synoptic charts on Look East for ages now.

 

This is absolutely my concern too, but I fear saying anything for getting jumped on.....There is of course, plenty of time for patterns to change, but it certainly appears a locked in pattern at the moment that is proving extremely stubborn.

---

The synoptic charts are giving me cause for concern. For weeks now there has been a persistent  high pressure over Newfoundland and another high pressure over Greenland. Occasionally they thrust a ridge in our direction which gives us the presistently low temperatures.

Hardly any mention is made of this. I've noticed this on the synoptic charts on Look East for ages now.

 

Wondered if Solar activity could be playing the part or just normal pattern?

 

South East quadrant - SE + London + EA = 27 million population!

 

Isn't part of the reason the south-east is historically more densely populated because the weather is warmer and drier?

 

After all, people retire to Bournemouth and Brighton not Braemar and Baltasound :-)

The spring monsoon continues. Not the best weather in terms of Covid spread. We need dry air and sunshine

Not my understanding; cold, dry air is the worst, but yes to sunshine as research has now indicated rapid reduction in viral viability in even moderate UV.

---

 

 

Isn't part of the reason the south-east is historically more densely populated because the weather is warmer and drier?

 

After all, people retire to Bournemouth and Brighton not Braemar and Baltasound :-)

One of the reasons the Lancashire cotton industy developed where it did was that the damp climate meant the cotton threads were less likely to break during manufacture.

It would probably never have taken off in Essex!

---

Some straws tonight as both GEM and GFS build the Azores high very nicely over the UK by day 9/10.

 

---