16-dayer shows NW Europe remaining cool for both weeks, joined by NE Europe n week 2 where it has been rather warm recently. Rain mostly over S Britain week 1 moving away to give a band over continental Europe week 2
GFS shows LP generally over the UK for the next week with new centres drifting in from the Atlantic across central Britain esp Mon 17th and Thu 20th, the latter generating a N-ly as it moves on to the E. This is briefly displaced by a toppling ridge of HP Wed 26th (with a bit of warmth) before new LP over Biscay appears and moves N to Ireland Sat 29th
EDIT FAX shows more localised troughs along the Channel until Mon 17th followed by a N-ly controlled by LP further N over Scotland Mon 17th
GEFS mean temp stays resolutely close to or a little below average, and with showery rain throughout (but op & control both dip some 7 or 8C below to match the N-ly mentioned above, ca Sat 23rd, followed by a bounce back for the op above norm on the 28th). In Scotland more runs also show the dip around the 23rd, but less of the showery rain towards the end.
ECM similar to GFS though the LPs mentioned are deeper
Edited by user
13 May 2021 07:24:20
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Reason: Not specified
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