March 2013 was really really severe though . Would have been well below average even if it were January and indeed there has been no colder month of any name since (Feb 2018 being very close). I remember seeing snow clinging to the trees during the final week of the month.
April and May that year were also largely devoid of any proper or long lasting warmth.
This year we've had a fairly normal March then a freezing April. We will need a very cold May to get anywhere close to 2013 .

Good info. Thank you.

On a positive note.

We seem to get stuck in these weather ruts these days.  Very much down to a slowed down jet stream.  6 or more weeks of below normal tempatures may well revert to 6  or more weeks of above at some point.  If so, now is the perfect time to be below normal I guess.

Northern blocking still very much a major player at the moment. So heat looks off the cards for the foreseeable.  A little warmer next week though some rain but not a complete washout either. Very uninspiring tbh. 

A May CET below 10c a good bet still atm.

 

 

Winter is over.

12z GEFS show a mixed bag at T+240 but a fair few with high pressure in evidence.

A better chance of high pressure holding more influence mid month .

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png 

12z GEFS show a mixed bag at T+240 but a fair few with high pressure in evidence.

A better chance of high pressure holding more influence mid month .

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png 

I'm not even too bothered whether it's dry and settled or showery at the moment. I just want this bloody cool air mass shifting! Unfortunately the GFS still isn't offering very much in the way of that and the ECM is similar. I expect this to be another cooler than average month.

 

I'm not even too bothered whether it's dry and settled or showery at the moment. I just want this bloody cool air mass shifting! Unfortunately the GFS still isn't offering very much in the way of that and the ECM is similar. I expect this to be another cooler than average month.

Sunshine and light winds will feel just lovely though .

FWIW this is the far reaches of FI . https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_360_1.png

Plenty of high pressure in evidence but also quite a few easterlies so west would be best. 

Looking at the charts there will be some welcome rain and warmth in the South East this weekend to set the gardening season going. Whilst it looks like remaining below average and showery the following week I think we will shake of this relentless cold, windy and dry weather of the last six weeks. By mid May below average will still be 15C which will seem positively tropical after recent days!

Slackish low pressure creates a broad trough stretching from the Atlantic to Central Europe on the ECM op longer term. No lack of water potential there

The 16-dayer shows a continuing 'bulge' of below average temps S-wards over W Europe for the full two weeks even if the rain lets up a bit over the UK in week 2. Jetstream running over or a little to the S of the UK to Sun 9th. Next week a k loop from the N enfolds the UK before the pattern repeats - straight flow across or just S of UK from Sat 14th, another similar loop Fri 21st. The split into noorthern and southern streams avoiding the UK as shown a few days ago no longer features.

GFS - LP from Atlantic to SW Ireland 970mb Sun 9th throwing frontal rain across UK for the weekend, drifts NE and fills by Wed 12th, cold over UK, warm plume over E Baltic. Cold pool hangs around over SE England while something milder from the SW affects Scotland until Sat 15th when poorly defined LP brings cold air from Greenland towards UK, firming up Wed 19th 995mb SW Ireland, again drifting NE and filling but leaving cold pool over UK.

GEFS - Rain Sun 9th with burst of warmth for England, then cooler again for all and a bit drier in the S to Sat 15th. Considerable variation after that, suggestion of a little above norm temps and damp in N but below (esp op & control) in S where the focus of any rain is later on

ECM - agrees with GFS

I think for down here at least we can say goodbye to the frosts after tomorrow. 

 

I think for down here at least we can say goodbye to the frosts after tomorrow. 

 

 

 

Yes I think we're moving into a more unsettled pattern, albeit often quite slack so dry clear nights much less of a factor. Slow signs of improvement overall and a few very warm outliers at the end of the GEFS ensembles.

I think the degree of cold will not be like the last few weeks. 850's mean is at least 5C higher and we will be entering a period of high solar warming in any sunny spells. I'm expecting temperatures maxing generally in the range 14-17C  next week which admittedly would normally be seen as disappointing but still a big improvement.

I think the degree of cold will not be like the last few weeks. 850's mean is at least 5C higher and we will be entering a period of high solar warming in any sunny spells. I'm expecting temperatures maxing generally in the range 14-17C  next week which admittedly would normally be seen as disappointing but still a big improvement.

I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.

This weekend looks horrendous.

 

 

I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.

This weekend looks horrendous.

I am a big believer that patterns for seasons set up early, so this is why I *think* the summer will be disappointing at best, horrendous at worst.

I will probably be wrong, but they are my thoughts.

Which is why one should always be careful what they wish for. We are moving into a much more unsettled phase, and May is currently looking the complete opposite to April and possibly a bit of a washout.

I am a big believer that patterns for seasons set up early, so this is why I *think* the summer will be disappointing at best, horrendous at worst.

I will probably be wrong, but they are my thoughts.

 

 

I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.

This weekend looks horrendous.

A bit nicer next weekend under a col and a wedge of warmer air:

The frost risk in the south is now clearly receding. The problem for amateur outdoor tomato growers like me will be the rain. It will either destroy the plants or mean keeping them inside the house for too long to make the season viable. I've had a June write-off before, but never a May one.

Average temps after tomorrow,  doesn't look particularly wet either.

 

 

I'd rather have chilly and dry than 5c milder and unsettled.

This weekend looks horrendous.

Not if you want some rain for your garden