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This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for May
1981-2010 11.66C (30 years)
1991-2020 11.90C (30 years)
2001-2020 12.02C (last 20 years)
Last year May was above average at 12.5C. The prior year was slightly below average with 11.2C. 2017 and 2018 were both very warm and above 13C. We have had a few cold May's in recent years, 10.8C in 2015, 10.4C in 2013, and 10.7C in 2010.
Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
Current model output
850s start the month below average. After the first week there is a lot of scatter and the ENS mean is around average.
GEFS 850s
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM (de Bilt) also looks cool although there are a number of much warmer runs in the second week of May
http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-mjj-v1.pdf
The 3-month outlook is still a 35% chance of warmer than average conditions (which is 1.8x normal and the same as last month). Cooler conditions are 0.5x normal probability. Didn't exactly work out well in April!
For May there is a 55% chance of near-normal temperatures and 30% chance of above-average temperatures.
Lower than average SSTs around the UK at present favour cooler than average conditions.
Hadley
6.6c to the 1st
2.8c below the 61 to 90 average4.0c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________
Current high this month 6.6c on the 1stCurrent low this month 6.6c on the 1st
Met Office Hadley 6.7c Anomaly -2.7c provisional to 2dnd
Metcheck 6.58c Anomaly -4.82c
Netweather 7.36c Anomaly -3.95c
Peasedown St John 6.6c Anomaly -5.8c.
First look at the May CET tracker
The very cold weather continues for the first week of the month. Signs of a pattern change from next weekend as things could potentially turn milder and above average.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Here is the list of predictions for May
I see Gusty's taking the "sh*t or bust" route
Originally Posted by: Global Warming
Looking at the latest GFS have we all gone to high again.
1816 again anyone?
Met Office Hadley 7.2c Anomaly -2.4c provisional to 3rd
Metcheck 6.98c Anomaly -4.42c
Netweather 7.73c Anomaly -3.58c
Peasedown St John 7.4c Anomaly -5.0c.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
I must say I was quite shocked to be so far down the list with 10.5c.
I thought we'd have a few more takers for well below average after the April we've just had and the frankly dismal charts for the next week or so.
May hasn't really been given a proper cold edition since the exceptional 1996, and that year would have been even more exceptional were it not for the heatwave at its very conclusion. We are going to need a significantly improved prognosis in the second half to avoid a similar calamity this year at this rate
Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread
Iam also suprised to be so far down the list to! It would be interesting to know why so many have so high? I really think this May is going to be a shocker as well as the whole of summer 2021.
Originally Posted by: springsunshine
I went average purely because it seems to be very difficult getting below average months these days and getting 2 in a row seemed unlikely. We're at that time of year where a cool start can easily be overcome by a few days of very high temps and it wouldn't surprise me to see some real warmth drawn up later on.
I suspect the 30 day CET running mean is actually less than the equivalent period in 1986.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
We know the answer to that already !
Met Office Hadley 7.4c Anomaly -2.2c provisional to the 4th
Metcheck 6.81c Anomaly -4.60c
Netweather 7.84c Anomaly -3.47c
Peasedown St John 7.6c Anomaly -4.8c.
Originally Posted by: Hippydave
I went just above average but my thinking was exactly the same as yours.
Originally Posted by: Caz
I went just below but the thinking was the same. Then again, I thought the same for April....
Originally Posted by: Col
Met Office Hadley 7.2c Anomaly -2.6C provisional to the 5th
Metcheck 6.55c Anomaly -4.86c
Netweather 7.49c Anomaly -3.82c
Peasedown St John 6.45c Anomaly -5.95.
I wonder how this first week of May compares with other very cold first weeks of May - This one has been quite amazing.
Met Office Hadley 7.0c Anomaly -2.8c provisional to 6th
Netweather 7.28c Anomaly -4.03c
Peasedown St John 6.57c Anomaly -5.80c.