Dry periods & wet periods have always been a part of our climate, although you can think of this as the weather 'paying it's debt'. However we are hardly unusual in being in a location where any rainfall shortages are always' made up.' If they weren't then climates arond the world  would have changed permanently and this hasn't happened - well not yet anyway. Take the Australian outback for example, you can have several years of drought followed by several years of rains and even flooding. The only difference with the UK is the timescale is years not months but the principle is the same, the overal climate is unchanged.

Did you mean to type "weeks" not "years". I think the weather in the UK used to be more changeable over shorter timescales. It used to be changeable over days regularly in April hence the concept of April showers. In recent years in the S.E we have had months of one type before changing to another, more frequently than previous decades I think with the last two years having distinct wet and dry seasons.

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Did you mean to type "weeks" not "years". I think the weather in the UK used to be more changeable over shorter timescales. It used to be changeable over days regularly in April hence the concept of April showers. In recent years in the S.E we have had months of one type before changing to another, more frequently than previous decades I think with the last two years having distinct wet and dry seasons.

I meant the Australian outback climate was variable of a timescale of 'years' not the UKs.

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Might be interesting to bring this out since unusually late cold airmasses are the thing at the moment.

This is about as late as you can get snow. The difficulty is getting the pressure gradient to advect it southwards as you can see here. This is an exceptionally strong northerly for so late in the year.

 

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Glimmer of hope for warmer weather at the end of GFS - fingers crossed

Until almost mid-May there are only 2 or 3 days expected to get over 10C here it still looks more like January.
Any sun will feel warm and heat the ground though.

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Was always likely to happen. This country is in a location where rainfall shortages are always made up. I feel that we will be in a completely different boat in 2 weeks' time and be hoping that the rain stops, and that it warms up. Looking exceptionally cool and pretty unsettled for at least the next 2 to 3 weeks.

I don't doubt the rainfall shortage in The Sahara will, eventually, be made up so what you're ignoring is the concept of 'scale'.

It will rain again in Devon, and a lot, but it's also absolutely ridiculously dry for April and, while there may be a shower this week, I'm still not convinced anything modeled indicates that we'll see an certain end to the continuing, extended, dry pspell.

Already we are close to the dry spell have consequences (for agriculture and for some wildlife) that wont be made up, not this year.

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I don't doubt the rainfall shortage in The Sahara will, eventually, be made up so what you're ignoring is the concept of 'scale'.

It will rain again in Devon, and a lot, but it's also absolutely ridiculously dry for April and, while there may be a shower this week, I'm still not convinced anything modeled indicates that we'll see an certain end to the continuing, extended, dry pspell.

Already we are close to the dry spell have consequences (for agriculture and for some wildlife) that wont be made up, not this year.

We have had many dry springs in recent times. This is nothing new, and the rain over the coming weeks will alleviate any issues anyone has perceived. I just hope we don't get deluged.

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We have had many dry springs in recent times. This is nothing new, and the rain over the coming weeks will alleviate any issues anyone has perceived. I just hope we don't get deluged.

Wosh.

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Wosh.

12z GFS does show that scenario to be fair.

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We have had many dry springs in recent times. This is nothing new, and the rain over the coming weeks will alleviate any issues anyone has perceived. I just hope we don't get deluged.

 

How much rain “over the coming weeks” are you forecasting in the SE? Several inches? Torrential storms?

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How much rain “over the coming weeks” are you forecasting in the SE? Several inches? Torrential storms?

Nope. Enough to alleviate any concerns growers have though. To be honest, an end to the frosts will be welcome, so rain is going to put a stop to that at least.

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Nope. Enough to alleviate any concerns growers have though. To be honest, an end to the frosts will be welcome, so rain is going to put a stop to that at least.

So just bog standard spring weather then? 

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The persistently colder than average spell looks set to continue for some time: 

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16-dayer still showing a warming over the next two weeks but ever so slowly - the best that can be said for all of W Europe is that it's moving from well below average tobelow average temps. More rain about, week 1 in a band from Spain across C Europe and a separate blob over the UK (though not really covering the SE),week 2 N Britain to Scandi to W Russia.

Jetstream weakly across UK to Fri 30th, then a stronger broader stream Spain to Poland for a few days; from Tue 4th more on a line just S of UK until a loop Sun 9th brings the UK a strong loop from the S before going back to a W-ly flow.

GFS - shallow trough of LP to SE of UK bringing NE-lies this week; then a succession of poorly defined troughs from Sat 1st pushing in from the Atlantic until Mon 10th when 985mb off SW Ireland develops but slowly filling in situ. Even this with a brief S-ly doesn't really shift the cold air around the UK.

GEFS - temps dipping to 7 or 8 C below norm Fri 30th (Snow rows back upto 20s in the Highlands though total pptn low) gradually rising to norm or a little below Fri 7th in most runs but still plenty on the colder side; much bigger spike of rain Thu 29th in SE (not agreed by all models - MetO places it further W but the LP moving down from Scotland is agreed by all to be more potent than previously forecast). Most runs have some rain thereafter esp in W through to Thu 13th but no consistent pattern. 

ECM - agrees with GFS at first and then in predicting LP from Atlantic but develops defined LPs e.g.  990mb Tue 4th Scotland with a quick blast of N-lies and another C Atlantic Fri 7th

 

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A slow climb in temps but rainfall chances increase too

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Just as well its in the deepest of FI

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First half of May continuing to look different. It has been well signposted by the GEFS35 for quite a long time. Still may not happen of course.  

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First half of May continuing to look different. It has been well signposted by the GEFS35 for quite a long time. Still may not happen of course.  

Cold but with rain?

 

ECM ensembles look like warming up at least to average. 

Azores doing it's best to push into the south by day 10 as well. Far from terrible 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

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We have had many dry springs in recent times. This is nothing new, and the rain over the coming weeks will alleviate any issues anyone has perceived. I just hope we don't get deluged.

Very unlikely in the South East. Six weeks with no rain can't be made up in summer due to transpiration from trees and plants and evaporation. That's if it does rain which it hasn't much in the last few summers.

Not unheard of but it is new to an extent. Several two season years here recently, wet and dry.

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