The 1100mb isobar has returned over Greenland in the GFS Op briefly on Sunday morning. I won't paste the image in as I realise it changes as the runs change.

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Yes that looks like a mountain snow only scenario up here https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_72_1.png  (509dam 500-1000hPa, t850hPa of -12°C) and the other main models show the same.

If what they mean to say is that “snow is most likely further north and on high ground further south” why don’t they just say that. It is neither a confusing nor a confusing message and is either lazy or ignorant to be honest. Either way it is misleading unless I am completely misreading the output. 

You might be interested in the forecast issued by MWIS, taking for example the one for the Cairngorms area:

https://www.mwis.org.uk/assets/forecasts/eh-mwi-wm12612_2021-04-02_074655_6304.pdf

where the Planning Outlook (bottom of page 2) reads:

"Fine and fairly warm into the Easter Weekend, but on Sunday bitterly cold air from deep within the Arctic will surge southwards into Scotland, penetrating all mountain areas by dawn on Monday. Higher areas then sub-freezing most of next week, and snow and hail showers widespread. One or two areas of persistent snow will move southeastwards giving substantial falls in places - sometimes lying into the valleys." [Bold added.]

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You might be interested in the forecast issued by MWIS, taking for example the one for the Cairngorms area:

https://www.mwis.org.uk/assets/forecasts/eh-mwi-wm12612_2021-04-02_074655_6304.pdf

where the Planning Outlook (bottom of page 2) reads:

"Fine and fairly warm into the Easter Weekend, but on Sunday bitterly cold air from deep within the Arctic will surge southwards into Scotland, penetrating all mountain areas by dawn on Monday. Higher areas then sub-freezing most of next week, and snow and hail showers widespread. One or two areas of persistent snow will move southeastwards giving substantial falls in places - sometimes lying into the valleys." [Bold added.]

Yes, the MWIS forecasts are generally excellent. The above seems a fair reflection of current output.

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I just saw the MO weather and then the latest BBC weather - The graphics showed most of England from Midlands southwards not having any snow showers - with any wintry/snow showers along coast areas which is quite a change from yesterday's forecast when wintry showers were more widespread inland and made it down to area's of southern England -even Dartmoor and Exmoor during Monday and Tuesday.

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the blast is nailed on but still some more extreme ones showing up and we are only a few days out

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Holy crap. Where is Q?

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the second plunge is not as severe but still impressive. 

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JFF , a nice spell of wintry weather for some 

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Holy crap. Where is Q?

 

Its nice, but I miss the -20s!

The OPs have got colder though. -14C on the 6Z GFS, -15C on the GEM!

 

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Yes, the MWIS forecasts are generally excellent. The above seems a fair reflection of current output.

Funny old thing, yellow warning now out for most of northern Scotland for snow, NOT , wintry showers 🤣🤣🤣, it’s almost that they are not allowed to say the “snow” word after 1st March 

STV, reporting 20cm plus for hills and valleys. , you might just see some in Aberdeen 😃😃

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Its nice, but I miss the -20s!

The OPs have got colder though. -14C on the 6Z GFS, -15C on the GEM!

FWIW, the Meteociel GEFS London ensembles have a mean of -10C for several hours. That's remarkable enough during winter (hell, most winters we don't even get close) yet in April... amazing, really.

 

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Funny old thing, yellow warning now out for most of northern Scotland for snow, NOT , wintry showers 🤣🤣🤣, it’s almost that they are not allowed to say the “snow” word after 1st March

Meanwhile at the other end of the UK the Met Office now also mention snow, as opposed to wintry showers. It's almost as if they couldn't quite believe it!

"Monday and Tuesday much colder with a chance of snow showers, particularly in Kent."

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Looks fairly ok here next week. Plenty of sunshine. Mainly dry. Temps around 8c, which with the strength of the sun will feel pleasant out of the breeze. BBC forecast suggesting temps picking up further from midweek. 

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ECM keeps us chilly 

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Chilly on the ECM even by day 10, though the coldest 850s getting mixed out then with the best of the weather under the ridge further south.

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Looks fairly ok here next week. Plenty of sunshine. Mainly dry. Temps around 8c, which with the strength of the sun will feel pleasant out of the breeze. BBC forecast suggesting temps picking up further from midweek. 

Indeed, much ado about nothing really. The wind will be cold, but plenty of sunshine around and feeling nice in the south in the lee of the wind. Any snow restricted to the north and high ground, then gradually getting warmer. Fine. 

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The dominant conditions in the south will be largely dry, chilly, and often sunny, then warming up. Nothing to write home about - roll on those warmer days.

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You would think that weather enthusiasts would realise after a few years of model watching that a cold Arctic northerly will affect more sheltered southern areas less than more exposed northern ones. A rather simple concept I would have thought yet it seems to confuse some every single time.

The Arctic blast still looks on course on this morning’s output, but thankfully the follow up second cold incursion seems a bit less likely later in the week.

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Yes Doc when I see a straight northerly I know that snow will fall and settle across the Northern half of Scotland and the North York Moors. These areas are likely to have disruptive snow. Central areas including Edinburgh and most English cities will be lucky to see a few flakes or a brief burst of soft hail. Southern areas likely to be sunny and dry.

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Yes Doc when I see a straight northerly I know that snow will fall and settle across the Northern half of Scotland and the North York Moors. These areas are likely to have disruptive snow. Central areas including Edinburgh and most English cities will be lucky to see a few flakes or a brief burst of soft hail. Southern areas likely to be sunny and dry.

Yes, a typical scenario but a very cold northerly for the time of year. As I mentioned a few days back I suspect a few in sheltered parts of the south, out of the wind and in the sunshine, will be wondering what the fuss is. 

An impressive temperature gradient as the initial cold front moves south:

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