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The big reduction to the cold air incursion later this week has notably raised the estimated CET trajectory since a few days ago.Back then I was looking at around 5.7°C to 20th March.Now I'm seeing around 6.1°C to that point.I wasn't doing the estimates behind the scenes on Friday 12th, but the runs back then were colder still for later this week, so I imagine the CET projection would have been another few tenths lower.Anyway, signs are, next week will be generally on the mild side. A bit of uncertainty over whether it then turns colder for the final few days of the month, but I'm now seeing a 'reasonable range' for the final CET as somewhere between the low 6s and mid-7s.This is with a slight factoring in of typical GFS bias. Something which really stung me early this month when it was atypically far too high with the temperatures; usually it's a bit too low. Such is the risk that comes with bias adjustments! For which reason, I only adjust by half the analysed bias - which means the spread around my 'best estimate' (currently mid-6s) is larger on the higher side than the lower.
The big reduction to the cold air incursion later this week has notably raised the estimated CET trajectory since a few days ago.
Back then I was looking at around 5.7°C to 20th March.
Now I'm seeing around 6.1°C to that point.
I wasn't doing the estimates behind the scenes on Friday 12th, but the runs back then were colder still for later this week, so I imagine the CET projection would have been another few tenths lower.
Anyway, signs are, next week will be generally on the mild side. A bit of uncertainty over whether it then turns colder for the final few days of the month, but I'm now seeing a 'reasonable range' for the final CET as somewhere between the low 6s and mid-7s.
This is with a slight factoring in of typical GFS bias. Something which really stung me early this month when it was atypically far too high with the temperatures; usually it's a bit too low. Such is the risk that comes with bias adjustments! For which reason, I only adjust by half the analysed bias - which means the spread around my 'best estimate' (currently mid-6s) is larger on the higher side than the lower.
Thanks for your continuing analysis, James
Somewhere around 7c would be a massive bonus, and totally unexpected from what we were looking at at 10 days ago.
Appreciated, Martin - you're most welcome!
All a natural consequence of my strangely intense relationship with weather statistics .
We could all end up too high if the charts don't start cracking out the mild soon...
Appreciated, Martin - you're most welcome! All a natural consequence of my strangely intense relationship with weather statistics .
Please do keep the analysis coming James. It is very welcome and appreciated.
Apart from tomorrow and Saturday when the CET maybe just below average, it looks like a relatively warm second half of March.
Currently expecting the CET to reach 6.93C by the 30th. So a finish close to 7C looks likely at the moment. Plenty of time for that to change though.
As is yours, GW
Met Office Hadley 5.8c Anomaly 0.6c provisional to 16th
Metcheck 5.14c Anomaly -1.01c
Netweather 5.77c Anomaly -0.54c
Peasedown St John 5.8c Anomaly -1.1c.
Thanks GW , same goes to you for not just the analysis but the whole competition!
Cheers to Caz too. It's an honour to help keep this buzzing (at least, relatively speaking...!). My work has taken me into far less friendly and generally chilled out environments from time to time. It's real nice to pop back into the TWO forum world whenever I can .
Met Office Hadley No Update
Metcheck 5.0c Anomaly -0.96c
Netweather 5.81c Anomaly -0.5c
Peasedown St John 5.7c Anomaly -1.2c.
Mt Office Hadley NO UPDATE
Metcheck 5.32c Anomaly -0.84c
Netweather 5.89c Anomaly -0.42c
Peasedown St John 5.67c Anomaly -1.27c.
6.2c is my monthly mean here at Folkestone so far. (LTA monthly mean is 6.7c).
Compared with 4.5 in Jan and 5.8 in February its a slow start to Spring.
Its looking like the CET will end up somewhere in the range 6.5 to 6.9.
I'm surprised how quickly the CET recovered in week 2. I could do with a large monthly downward correction to get close to my 6.2c prediction.
Metcheck 5.39c Anomaly -0.77c
Netweather 5.99c Anomaly -0.32c
Met Office Hadley No UpdateMetcheck 5.39c Anomaly -0.77cNetweather 5.99c Anomaly -0.32cPeasedown St John 5.7c Anomaly -1.2c.
What's with the lack of updates from Hadley over the past few days, is there some kind of an issue there?
They do it at least 3 times a year. No stranger to no updates. Most times cause not give anything other than they may be updating systems.
They're not doing it any more.
It means that the competition is now finished for the year with positions frozen.
I expect GW will be doing an update and announcing the winner for 2021 in due course !
They're not doing it any more.It means that the competition is now finished for the year with positions frozen.I expect GW will be doing an update and announcing the winner for 2021 in due course !
It's a sad day indeed that they would abandon the world's longest running temperature series, going all the way back to 1659 but I'm sure they must have their reasons.
Now let me just check who is currently on top of the CET competition table....
I always get the impression that when the person who updates the CET pages goes on holiday or is off sick, then rather than someone else doing the job it is left until he/she returns 🙄
If one of the weather stations within the CET stations does not send in their details then the CET is not published.