Fairly quiet here, but lot more consistency in the ensembles than last month at CET competition submission time

 

 

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The second week of March is looking likely to be unsettled with some possible strong winds. In other words, back to Autumn mode but is in line with the Met Office's own medium range thoughts. Have to remember that as we are being spoilt with this early taste of Spring with the very welcome dry conditions, March and even April are still quite volatile months.

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I think it's been a nearly winter. I know Scotland had some good heavy spells of snow but down on the South coast it's just teased us.

 

The North/NE winds forecast for the weekend don't appear to be very cold.

 

Oh well theres always next year!

I think it's been a nearly winter. I know Scotland had some good heavy spells of snow but down on the South coast it's just teased us.

 

The North/NE winds forecast for the weekend don't appear to be very cold.

 

Oh well theres always next year!

Welcome to posting!

Sorry there hasn't been a more inspiring winter to post about (and I speak as a fellow southerner)

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WINTER IS OVER - IT'S OFFICIAL !

(It's also nice that the first day of Spring always happens to be on my birthday) 

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Cold pool plunging West of Greenland looks set to ensure the UK will not get prolonged late spring cold this year. Very disapointing end to what was an interesting winter model watching despite the lack of proper cold advection.

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WINTER IS OVER - IT'S OFFICIAL !

(It's also nice that the first day of Spring always happens to be on my birthday) 

That's only if you go by the meteorological seasons of course, as the astronomical spring doesn't start until the day of the Vernal Equinox on 20 March which means that it is still officially winter from an astronomical perspective.

 

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WINTER IS OVER - IT'S OFFICIAL !

(It's also nice that the first day of Spring always happens to be on my birthday) 

HAPPY BIRTHDAY 🥳 

FAX calling time on the recent dry and sunny weather with showery fronts in the S from Wed 3rd and HP shifting towards Iceland allowing an Arctic cold front to come down and affect the N on Thu 4th.

GFS has a similar but brief evolution for the HP, and the restores it 1035mb C England Sun 7th before finally collapsing and allowing LP in from the Atlantic 970mb Hebrides Wed 10th. This ushers in a week of W-ly weather but with the winds gradually backing S a new HP is pumped up 1035 mb Cornwall Wed 17th (and may just be strong enough to keep the N-lies to the other side of the N Sea)

GFS for the SE - showers as above on Wed 3rd, big dip in temps Fri 5th, and slow recovery to norm thereafter with less certainty than yesterday, frequent rain Tue 9th - Sun 14th, drying up at the end. In the N and W, a quicker return to norm though possible colder spell around Wed 10th, rain persisting to end of run esp in the W.

ECM similar to GFS until Wed 10th then the Atlantic LP extends a trough (completely absent from GFS) S-wards reaching Italy Thu 11th and winds on its back edge more N/NW rather than W-ly

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A few just hitting the -10 mark , could be the last time for several months 

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Snow showers probable across E and SE fringes on Friday into Saturday.

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Snow showers probable across E and SE fringes on Friday into Saturday.

Similar theme on the 12z too. 

I know most folk are looking for spring now but IMO it's a shame our little bubble of HP is expected to Sink South before we get more than a glancing blow. There's enough very cold air to our East that a more stable block could have led to some very interesting weather.

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Similar theme on the 12z too. 

I know most folk are looking for spring now but IMO it's a shame our little bubble of HP is expected to Sink South before we get more than a glancing blow. There's enough very cold air to our East that a more stable block could have led to some very interesting weather.

Agree totally Dave, previous blocks have not been sinkers like this one, and had it not been, that cold pool out east would have reached us for a late Beasting.... It was close, but I guess Q’s Baffin cold pool, cyclogenesis maker, pushed enough energy east to boot the high south and cut off the advection of that cold our way for more than 48 hours. A near miss only this time.

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Jetstream currently  looping over Iceland with the UK getting a touch of N=ly from the E edge of the loop until Tue 9th when a full-strength blast from the Atlantic is aimed directly at the UK. where it stays, occasionally drifting  a bit to the S, until weakening Thu 18th (end of run)

GFS - Current HP splitting, one centre to the Med, one to Iceland, with the latter becoming dominant and bringing in NE-lies briefly later this week, the NE-lies soon cut off by a toppling HP from the SW before W-lies set in under influence of LP S of Iceland. That becomes a major depression in Norwegian Sea 950 mb Thu 11th. The next LP in the train throws a secondary across Scotland 975mb Sun 14th with trough extending S-wards. After that, quieter W-lies with a suggestion of ridge of HP off Ireland Thu 18th.

GEFS - In the SE, dip in temp Fri 5th  to 2 or 3 C below norm, not as exaggerated  as yesterday, slowly recovering to norm by about Sun 14th. Scotland and N & W England and Wales don't dip as much and then stay close to norm. That's all with fairly good agreement between runs; then a big spread of outputs over the following few days, many very mild but op and control both cold. Rain setting in about Wed 10th and frequent thereafter.

ECM - As GFS until the W-lies arrive but then places LP over UK (980mb Tyneside Wed 10th and 980 mb SW Ireland Thu 11th) rather than deeper and further N 

 

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Snow showers probable across E and SE fringes on Friday into Saturday.

C Kirkwood talking about snow on Sunday ??

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Anyone interested in some transient, Spring slush. Thought not.

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Anyone interested in some transient, Spring slush. Thought not.

I just want the southwesterlies back to blow away this horrible North Sea murk!

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Anyone interested in some transient, Spring slush. Thought not.

Is it any different to the transient winter slush that was all many of us had in Jan and Feb?     

I actually prefer spring snow - a nice heavy overnight fall, with skies clearing by dawn and all gone by dusk.    All the fun and none of the pain.

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I just want the southwesterlies back to blow away this horrible North Sea murk!

And you might get your wish by this time next week if some of the outputs are to go by on. Trouble is, that then become a drag as it ends up being a pattern that takes ages to break out of. 

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And you might get your wish by this time next week if some of the outputs are to go by on. Trouble is, that then become a drag as it ends up being a pattern that takes ages to break out of. 

True.

I miss the April's of the 1990's when we use to get snow - 1998 and 1999 is a prime example when there was snow early April and quite a lot - we don't seem to get it these days. Wait a moment we are only in early March!

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