I hope it does Tally, if it isn't going to snow then I want it as mild as possible. 

 

I think people are fed up with cold rain and rain full stop as if they/.we haven't seen enough already. I think a WIO thread would start appearing soon. Yes maybe the model may have some difficulties but i just don't feel it right now and actually i wouldn't say no to some warm sunshine. It's been another rubbish winter really - at least we had hail and sleet last winter. Warm sunshine will be better - more people outdoors, lockdown ending , more vit D, more sunlight windows open so viruses will spread less easily. Time to give up for this winter. I am not saying we won't see any return to cold but the short and medium term looks unlikely. - Real shame, given we have seen a SSW and a minor SSW and x2 reversal of zonal flow and record breaking negative -AO and NAO. Really is such a shame. Really. But just proves that a negative AO and NAO won't guarantee anything cold neither would a SSW and a reversal of zonal winds either. - The reversal of zonal flow has been going on for days now and set to continue too for a few more days. I am quite amazed. Furthermore - we hear of record amounts of snow in Spain, Italy, France,  Iran, Saudi Arabia, north Africa, Turkey, Greece, Japan, China etc - There is cold and there is snow around but just not for the UK. 

A few days ago yes there was chance with some models showing southerly tracking channel slider lows to give significant snow to the south over weekend of 23/24th (this weekend) but now this doesn't look like coming off.

Sorry will shut up now as this isn't the rant thread. - But you see how annoying it is...?

Things better improve in the model output within the next week or so or else that would be it for this winter and I thought it couldn't get worse than last winter with persistent zonality but I was wrong. It's just as bad if not worse. Good London and the SE at least saw a smattering despite days of cold rain over past few weeks. But a smattering which melted in a few hours? Most would have been asleep at 0600 am and missed it. Have we stooped this low to get snow? I wonder how the Daily Express are doing suggesting the BFTE 6 times and 20" of snow? haha - soon they will talk about a heat wave.

Here with the 06z ENS - Ps still not completed yet but no signs of anything drier let alone cold.

 

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Mild and dry is also fine and dandy by me, not more cold rain please weather gods !!

As per Rob earlier, the hint at southerly tracking jet that briefly reappeared over the weekend is gone again on 6z gfs

With all the predictions of mild weather and no sign of cold, I'll just leave the ECM 00z ensemble picture here: London T2m as usual:

A mild blip then turning cold by Friday. A strong signal for another mild interlude next week but hints that it may be short-lived.

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The GFS op run shows the PV going pretty much back to normality by the end of the month with no sign of the northern blocking we have seen.

 

Yes, if it (SSW-induced cold spell) was going to happen I'd be looking for signs of blocking cropping up around T240 on a few runs by now ..  the jet is consistently tracking north in that timeframe pretty consistently over recent output.  I'll give it another week to completely surrender hope but it is looking more odds on than not for 'not this time lads'.

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I think there were suggestions that the models were performing quite well despite the uncertainties around events in the stratosphere but accuracy at both Day 6 & 8 has fallen noticeably since the New Year.

 

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While there is no sign of anything especially cold (for the south) I am also not seeing any signs of anything exceptionally mild (by which I mean temperatures into the teens). Other than a rogue GFS operational run it all looks pretty average, perhaps a couple of days in London might reach 12C (as per BBC forecast) or even 13 in the usual favoured spots but mid to high single figures looks more like it after that. Pretty average January weather which is of course rather disappointing given the promise that we had in the charts at one point.

Looking at the second half of the long-range model output you would have no idea that a SSW had taken place; everything just looks like returning to "business as usual".

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I think P20 of the extended GFS ensembles have the outlook nailed. 

 

(Tally before you ask, I am not being serious!)

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Yes, if it (SSW-induced cold spell) was going to happen I'd be looking for signs of blocking cropping up around T240 on a few runs by now ..  the jet is consistently tracking north in that timeframe pretty consistently over recent output.  I'll give it another week to completely surrender hope but it is looking more odds on than not for 'not this time lads'.

Maybe - but I understood that the effects can take weeks to propagate down, in which case it could be February. The second wind reversal has only just happened.

The ECM clusters from the 00z run don't show wall-to-wall zonalty by Day 15 with signals for ridging somewhere to our west in about half the members.

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I think P20 of the extended GFS ensembles have the outlook nailed. 

 

(Tally before you ask, I am not being serious!)

That would still give a balmy 10c and sunshine on the south coast, though. Winter is definitely over.  🤡

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That would still give a balmy 10c and sunshine on the south coast, though. Winter is definitely over.  🤡

And look at all that warm air over the Sahara. If that could head our way...

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I think P20 of the extended GFS ensembles have the outlook nailed. 

 

(Tally before you ask, I am not being serious!)

Only 618hrs away and it's P15 

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Only 618hrs away and it's P15 

Ah yes, I'm not sure where 20 came from (unless it was the -20ºC air that caught my attention). 

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Ah yes, I'm not sure where 20 came from (unless it was the -20ºC air that caught my attention). 

 

Haha and I thought Marcus and his JFF was back with us?

Meanwhile (after a brief milder blip) there appears to be a dip in the ENS mean on 30 day extended for London: - Not to be taken seriously....but we can live in hope.

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While there is no sign of anything especially cold (for the south) I am also not seeing any signs of anything exceptionally mild (by which I mean temperatures into the teens). Other than a rogue GFS operational run it all looks pretty average, perhaps a couple of days in London might reach 12C (as per BBC forecast) or even 13 in the usual favoured spots but mid to high single figures looks more like it after that. Pretty average January weather which is of course rather disappointing given the promise that we had in the charts at one point.

Looking at the second half of the long-range model output you would have no idea that a SSW had taken place; everything just looks like returning to "business as usual".

Agree 100% about the lack of anything exceptionally mild; indeed there's little even just mild.  On the 06z ensembles it's mostly only the top decile that offers anything very mild and for balance the bottom decile delivers very cold conditions. 

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In all seriousness, if you don't have patience then the MO thread is probably not good for your health 

The pattern is quite interesting in that the lows continue on a more southerly path and when you consider the difference between where Northern Scotland and the south of England are you are talking about a huge weather variation in the current set up

A look at the Inverness ensembles show persistent cold where as London oscillates between mild/cold simply because the polar front continually migrates up and down across this latitude

There should be an acceptance that people do comment on their location but also an understanding that others may get very different weather due to the geographical spread of the UK

FWW the warmth shown on some charts may well get into my locale on occasion in the next couple of weeks but the sharp temperature gradient makes for a lot of rainfall so flooding continues to be a problem

In all seriousness, if you don't have patience then the MO thread is probably not good for your health 

The pattern is quite interesting in that the lows continue on a more southerly path and when you consider the difference between where Northern Scotland and the south of England are you are talking about a huge weather variation in the current set up

A look at the Inverness ensembles show persistent cold where as London oscillates between mild/cold simply because the polar front continually migrates up and down across this latitude

There should be an acceptance that people do comment on their location but also an understanding that others may get very different weather due to the geographical spread of the UK

FWW the warmth shown on some charts may well get into my locale on occasion in the next couple of weeks but the sharp temperature gradient makes for a lot of rainfall so flooding continues to be a problem

Have you got nothing better to do than to inject some common sense and unbiased opinion into this thread. 
I don’t know, some people!

😂😉😉

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In all seriousness, if you don't have patience then the MO thread is probably not good for your health 

The pattern is quite interesting in that the lows continue on a more southerly path and when you consider the difference between where Northern Scotland and the south of England are you are talking about a huge weather variation in the current set up

A look at the Inverness ensembles show persistent cold where as London oscillates between mild/cold simply because the polar front continually migrates up and down across this latitude

There should be an acceptance that people do comment on their location but also an understanding that others may get very different weather due to the geographical spread of the UK

FWW the warmth shown on some charts may well get into my locale on occasion in the next couple of weeks but the sharp temperature gradient makes for a lot of rainfall so flooding continues to be a problem

Nicely put Mr EDWW man 

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While there is no sign of anything especially cold (for the south) I am also not seeing any signs of anything exceptionally mild (by which I mean temperatures into the teens). Other than a rogue GFS operational run it all looks pretty average, perhaps a couple of days in London might reach 12C (as per BBC forecast) or even 13 in the usual favoured spots but mid to high single figures looks more like it after that. Pretty average January weather which is of course rather disappointing given the promise that we had in the charts at one point.

Looking at the second half of the long-range model output you would have no idea that a SSW had taken place; everything just looks like returning to "business as usual".

 

Possibly, as has been said numerous times, the second warming is only just ending, this will not have an effect until toward the end of the month.

 

We will see then if there is any effect. The meto seem to think it will. Waiting with baited breath.

 

Have you got nothing better to do than to inject some common sense and unbiased opinion into this thread. 
I don’t know, some people!

😂😉😉

Harsh!

Cheers Doc btw 

 

 

Possibly, as has been said numerous times, the second warming is only just ending, this will not have an effect until toward the end of the month.

 

We will see then if there is any effect. The meto seem to think it will. Waiting with baited breath.

Haven't seen anything on the metoffice that would suggest anything other than the status quo