FWIW GEFS35 is still favouring colder conditions in Feb. Others may disagree but I think it has been performing well this winter.

A few GEFS still giving some hope. but we know it wont happen

Yes I was just looking at ENS for next 30 days- no sign of anything mild but it does look unsettled and cool - maybe cold zonality is the way forward? However after the SSW and the 2nd reversal of zonal flow do you still think there is a chance for proper cold Brian - we are now over half way through winter?

If only. Still enough to keep the interest going until the 12zs

Interesting. Here are the raw METARs. Are they having a barbecue? 
https://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=EGGP&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2021&mes=01&day=15&hora=11&anof=2021&mesf=01&dayf=16&horaf=11&minf=59&send=send

LOL. That should skew the modelled temperatures for the next day or so when it is fed into the NWP!!!

 Too early still to be confident. However, it could get those of us who plumped for a mild winter back on track. It's a bit like being 65 for 5 and and the sixth wicket putting on 150. 

Edit: I think you may say there are signs of the pitch beginning to lose its pace and bounce. 

As the last of this mornings snow now melts its time to start looking to the next event.

Here in Folkestone I've witnessed 3 separate altitude brief snow events locally this winter (4th December, 8th January and 16th January).

At FI 120 hours these charts look tantalising.

Greenland High far enough east to prevent prolonged Tm incursions, deep low pressure advecting cold air south across the UK and an arctic high nosing into Svalbard acting as a conveyor to start ushering very cold very deep arctic air SW'wards. Check out historic cold events of the past and you'll notice many charts looking like this a week or two before.

This progressing pattern with secondary lows spiralling on ever southward tracks will bring cold air a good deal further south with time. 

GFS 120

ECM 120

UKMO 120

GEM 120

Nice pics - your inbox is full Steve so can't reply!?

What time was the pic taken? Snow falling must have been dry then for it to settle on main roads?

Given the current uncertainties due to the SSW I think T+144 is near the limits of accuracy. 

Out towards day 10 and both GFS versions want to put a high pressure centre over southern Portugal; ECM and GEM put it over Morocco. That's a difference of 500-600 miles, which whilst very little in global modellling terms is very significant in terms of whether there's room for LP systems to run to our south or not.

There's always the option of the odd beamer, Brian....

Or what the Yanks call a curve ball, perhaps?

Just before 8am. The onset of the snow was accompanied by dry blowing snow that was drifting for about 30 minutes before things started to stick (as the sea level DP's above 0c at 7am slowly lifted to 200 metres by 9am.

I paid a visit to Paddlesworth (187m asl) again at 9.30 when the snow had become a rain, sleet snow mix. By 10.15 it was 100% rain.