Yes afraid it looks like you are, although not sure where or what you're looking at... perhaps the 6z still.

 

Reading on this site shows for 850s and 2m that the Ops is bottom of the pack at least, if not an outlier, from this Friday 26th until the 2nd July bar one day, the 28th.

Look at the very first post on this page. I look at the 850s on those Ensembles and the operational rarely deviates from the average. Maybe pressure is a bit of an outlier, but the 850s and precipitation certainly aren't.

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Sorry Moomin, but if you can't see the green line is at or close to the bottom on the 850s for most of the days I noted, then I'm not sure anyone other than Specsavers can help. I was looking at Reading, London is similar, only the 28th and 30th aren't there.

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It is indeed a significant pressure outlier, and at the bottom of the 850s as well, bringing the breakdown in first. A quick look at the postage stamps confirms how much of an outlier the 12z op is. No idea why there's such controversy on this? It's an outlier FFS! 

With the pressure being such an outlier it makes the 850s a little less significant anyway as there would be far more cloud and precipitation around to suppress temperatures.

Over Wales and the West Midlands for example there is a 7C difference between the op and the mean for the 2m temp. This negative agenda is getting more tiresome by the day.

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ECM keeps it hot on Friday with the far SE also getting away with a hot Saturday.

GFS op very much on its own this evening engaging the low further south of Iceland at t96.

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ECM keeps it hot on Friday with the far SE also getting away with a hot Saturday.

GFS op very much on its own this evening engaging the low further south of Iceland at t96.

 

Also lovely push in from the Azores on tonight's ECM days 7\8

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Also lovely push in from the Azores on tonight's ECM days 7\8

Looks smashing, but again totally at odds with everything else. Highly doubt this is likely tbh. As per usual, I think the eventual pattern will be an amalgamation of them all, a mobile westerly sunshine and showers regime.

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Looks smashing, but again totally at odds with everything else. Highly doubt this is likely tbh.

 

GEM has something similar tonight.

 

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ECM getting toasty again day 9. Believe Moomin believe!

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The consistent thing with all the models though is pressure building over Greenland and the Fram strait, which pushes the lows further South even in the ECM ridgy run. We need that to disappear before we can get some proper sustained highs over us.

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ECM getting toasty again day 9. Believe Moomin believe!

End with an Atlantic push from the northwest again though.

The Azores High just isn't ridging in as strongly as it has done in recent summers. As Tin says above, the Greenland High is playing a forcing hand and the Azores just cannot come fully into play.

Until that changes, it will remain changeable/unsettled.

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At times like this it’s always best to reassure oneself by looking at Navgem.

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At times like this it’s always best to reassure oneself by looking at Navgem.

 

Indeed just the 42c for London on Saturday.

 

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The big fly in the ointment for next week and into July seems to be our old enemy the Greenland high. Not a huge one, but present in all runs (some more than others) and forcing the jet stream South.

I would say the High over Central , Eastern Europe, North West Russia has as a big or greater impact as the Greenland High. This seems to cause a dip in the west to allow troughs to continually taking a sweep.

 

ECM getting toasty again day 9. Believe Moomin believe!

 

I do wish people  would stop engaging with this nonsense. 

 

What is the point of blocking somebodies posts if everybody else then quotes them?  So much time wasted. I for one am here to learn from genuine discussion based on evidence  and knowledge from you guys.    So many hijacked posts.  Pages and pages of it that immediately appear if there is an outlier blip.,!  Instantly! 

 

I am with you.  We are doing really well so far this summer and continue to do so.

 

When I was young, summers were nothing like they are regularly now.

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Not quite sure why there's so much debate/arguing in here tonight, I guess it's the summer equivalent of the winter 3-4 days cold snap 

GFS ens shows 4 days or so of hot weather before a return to normal. Rain in short demand, particularly the further south and east you go, as per usual, although looks like they'll be some as we cool down after the hot snap at least.

ECM Op broadly similar, albeit with a greater chance of warmer air hanging on in the south. Not checked the ens because it's summer and degrees of warmth don't interest me The ECM t240 shows cooler air moving in from the west and I dare say the T264 chart would show it having displaced even the residual warmer than average air in the South East  - with LP not too far away I imagine there'd be some showers or rain around, biased to the North and West. 

Nothing exceptional in the outlook but on balance a decent enough set of runs for many and 4 days of v.warm to hot is pretty much nailed on the short term, with most people seeing at least some of this

 

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GFS 18z very similar to 12z. ICON 18z goes from ECM style to something closer to GFS.

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GFS 18Z seems to produce a huge low from somewhere, not sure what’s going on there.

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GFS 18Z seems to produce a huge low from somewhere, not sure what’s going on there.

Moomin has hijacked the data input 

A mixed bag from GFS - various pressure systems affecting the UK at their edges but nothing really dominant until much later on so could go in any direction. I pick out the current LP moving off and filling by Fri 26th; new LP to NW Sun 28th; HP across UK Sat 4th 

GEFS Very warm to Fri 26th dropping back to near normal after that in the S but cooler in the N judging by mean of runs, with lots of variation; best chance of rain in the S Mon 29th, in the N Sat 27th and bits and pieces  mostly in the N thereafter.

ECM - LP off Scotland on Sun 28th much deeper than GFS - after that yesterday's 12z runs (0z not put up at time of posting) suggesting that westerlies will set in

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Looks smashing, but again totally at odds with everything else. Highly doubt this is likely tbh. As per usual, I think the eventual pattern will be an amalgamation of them all, a mobile westerly sunshine and showers regime.

​I hope that does turn out to be the case as it would make for a significant improvement from the utterly dire and catastrophic horror show that June has been in this part of the country.

This week seeing a continuation of the dismal, depressing cloudfest. For some time I've been wondering if this will make it into the top 10 dullest Junes. This awful week is just the final straw and now I'm thinking top 5 dullest is highly probable. Will be lucky to scrape much more than 100 hours sun out of this complete write-off month with possibly no more than two days managing 9 hours sun.

Not just one of the worst summer months of all time but, like June 2007, June 2012 and July 2012, one of the worst months of any name 

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