12z GFS likely for the bin. Too progressive and way different to the others as well as the 6z. Expecting an outlier in the ensembles later.
I expect this run is reasonably close to the mark in comparison to the 6z and doubt it'll be an outlier. The reason is because of the general trend it has been showing. If anything, the 6z was more the outlier.
However, I doubt it will be quite as cool and unsettled as this run is showing and GEM seems to prolong the heat.
That said, the UKMO looks very wet at the end of the week, although warm with it. In fact the UKMO is almost 2007 wet. Would be very concerned if that verifies.
Edited by user
21 June 2020 17:25:42
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Reason: Not specified
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL