Interesting on the 12z output so far.

There is almost certainty going to be a breakdown of some sorts on Saturday, but as it stands it looks like the low is going to flirt with NW Britain (giving everywhere a soaking for a time), with HP pressure slowly building back in from the south. The operational GFS shows this quite well but hints of it on the MetO too by T+144 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

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In fact if the 12z GFS verifies I wouldn’t expect much of a breakdown to rain/unsettled weather in the SE at all. 

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In fact if the 12z GFS verifies I wouldn’t expect much of a breakdown to rain/unsettled weather in the SE at all. 

A huge, monumental IF, but you're right, the 12z GFS looks a lot better. UKMO isn't quite as bad as yesterday either....so fingers crossed the models are on the move again.

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A good GFS 12z as many have alluded to, though it had a whiff of 'top end' to it and the ensembles have proven that suspicion.

 

Two things to note - the first is the slower breakdown to cooler 850s and the second is the mahoosive amount of FI scatter heading into July. No clear consensus is a bit of an understatement! 

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UKMO and ICON show something similar although UKMO gets a more direct hit first before ridging.

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Positive ECM 12z this evening with the weekend low soon deflected north with renewed ridging from the Azores high and Atlantic intrusions reserved for areas further north and west. Likely staying warm/very warm throughout for the SE especially.

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ECM is OKish. Saturday breakdown but some ridging next week for a bit. I think the prospect of a hot weekend has probably gone now so all eyes on the run in to July.

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Current Jetstream from SW fading and eventually resuming from the W/NW over the UK from Sat 26th for a week before moving further N and finally 1buckling to give a loop generating a cut-off low over Brittany Wed 8th

GFS - general drop in pressure over UK Fri 26th resolving into LP 985mb Western Isles Sun 28th and a period of mainly W-ly weather before ridge of HP running N-S across UK on Sat 4th. That topples and strengthens across the UK to end the run by Thu 9th though with suggestion of LP moving up from France.

GEFS - Hot spell ends Sat 27th after which cool for a few days before oscillating about the seasonal norm or somewhat below further N, Very little rain in the S, Scottish lowlands predicted a lot of rain Sat 27th, and fairly regularly thereafter there and N England.

ECM - much as GFS to end of run Fri 3rd

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All models have now backed down from a possible settling down and reverted to the very much more changeable and cool scenario.

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All models have now backed down from a possible settling down and reverted to the very much more changeable and cool scenario.

There was always the usual uncertainty in the longer range but the south still looks mostly dry and settled with decent temperatures.  

A British summer never has been about wall to wall sunshine and recurring heatwaves.

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There was always the usual uncertainty in the longer range but the south still looks mostly dry and settled with decent temperatures.  

A British summer never has been about wall to wall sunshine and recurring heatwaves.

Except in 1976, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, I would agree.

And in fact, even in those remarkable summers there were brief unsettled moments.

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All models have now backed down from a possible settling down and reverted to the very much more changeable and cool scenario.

Absolutely agree and the output is disappointing today given the promising signs yesterday. 

Still time for change though - we can be sure of a breakdown at the weekend but after that is anyone’s guess. 

For now it’s a short but potent heat wave. My WeatherPro app (uses the EPS) is showing 30C here tomorrow and Thursday now. 

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There does seem to be a recent theme of the models improving through the day (if you like good weather) and then reverting to something less good in the 00z runs. Having said that it's not too bad, at least where I am, and it has to be said, it's been a very good Spring and Summer so far.

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Would be nice to get something consistently fairly warm and fairly settled, rather than brief intense heatwave then rain and wind.

Feels like the extremes are much hotter these days but the bits in between not so much. Like the weather has become one of those generally disappointing England batsmen who averages in the low 30s but occasionally flashes out a supreme match winning century.

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After this hot spell it looks like standard summer weather, sunshine and some rain, best weather in sheltered south and east.

Looking back at at my records for June, nothing unremarkable, probably more 20c+ days than average but some cool and wet spells. Not horrific , fairly standard apart from maybe the ease in obtaining high temperatures this week.

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The BBC 5 day forecast now bringing the breakdown forward to this Friday. Mind you, rain & thunderstorms and a temp of 32c in C.London seems a tad unlikely I would of thought. One for the rubbish bin.

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The BBC 5 day forecast now bringing the breakdown forward to this Friday. Mind you, rain & thunderstorms and a temp of 32c in C.London seems a tad unlikely I would of thought. One for the rubbish bin.

I don't know. I'm sure I've experienced in past years a rapid climb of temp to the 30s early in the day with thunderstorms moving in later on, quite big and spectacular ones in that setup. More worried this time that any showers and storms will move off to the NW as seems to be  currently forecasted - the garden desperately needs rain.

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There does seem to be a recent theme of the models improving through the day (if you like good weather) and then reverting to something less good in the 00z runs. Having said that it's not too bad, at least where I am, and it has to be said, it's been a very good Spring and Summer so far.

 

Yes I've noticed this the 12z seem to have more high pressure. Let's hope it happens today as it's a poor set of 0z it has to be said.

 

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Yes I've noticed this the 12z seem to have more high pressure. Let's hope it happens today as it's a poor set of 0z it has to be said.

I see the models as a random walk of upgrades and downgrades. To get a good spell you need a long run of upgrades outnumbering downgrades. To get an extension to a heatwave you need 2 or 3 upgrades that marginally move the breakdown. 

Feels like the ups and downs are fairly balanced at the moment. Need a bit of a run of upgrades over the next couple of days to shove that Atlantic low towards Iceland where it belongs. 

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Would be nice to get something consistently fairly warm and fairly settled, rather than brief intense heatwave then rain and wind.

Feels like the extremes are much hotter these days but the bits in between not so much. Like the weather has become one of those generally disappointing England batsmen who averages in the low 30s but occasionally flashes out a supreme match winning century.

A Graham Hick rather than Sir Geoffrey Boycott. I wonder whether we'll ever get a Kevin Pietersen at the crease for a number of consecutive seasons, including winter. 

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