Despite the EC32 I’m beginning to think there may well be a significant Arctic outbreak at some point in March. No real teleconnection data to back this up just a gut feeling and the law of Sod.
I knew you would show up after my post.
The North Atlantic Overturning Event AMO is going to happen.
The Pressure will be pushing this in Waves of Angular Momentum Spinning Arctic Low’s Far N Pacific, to SW S Alaska and SE to E NE USA, Low’s looping up and then lodged out by MLB High blocks West N Atlantic Greenland SE Canada NE USA etc.
The North Atlantic in mid March shall see us get mild SW and west winds that turn North NW and NNE- with Greenland East Canada NE USA blocking Central and NE Europe blocking High’s.
The SE Greenland Iceland and Western Norwegian Sea could gather Cold Arctic Airmass and send it to NW and Western Europe etc etc.
The GFS, UKMO, ICON and the GFS la la yay- are quite the prowess of this possible but not yet certain but increased chance yes it could not Flip or Flop but be organised such that arctic cold shots are possible as the Azores High will by Mid March 2020 migrate NW and merge with Greenland High P area.
00z, 12z and 18z runs pointing to some mild West SW winds from 11-12th March et all, maybe 13th as well. It is what happens as it stretches Southwards and elongates SW to NE in Eastern N Atlantic in said period.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.