Indeed, there are many members of this forum who have had long-standing mental health issues or conditions, who have then opened up about that on this forum. I am one such person myself, having previously mentioned that I have Asperger Syndrome and there are many others as well.
Me too and it's good your open about it. I have Asperger's as well albeit milder form but got diagnosed a little too late. I think it was yourself John a year or so back when you said you had the condition or opened up' to having it to someone when you were discussing with another member about criticizing a model or output or voicing your opinion about something and you said you were going through a rough period.
What bugs me is that it's all now considered Autism when I was diagnosed with Asperger's and apparently those who were diagnoses with Asperger's like I was via a psychiatrist in 2009 I keep the title of Asperger's but new people who are on the Autism spectrum and are milder are all only being diagnosed with Autism now instead according to the new DSM 5. How do you feel about that? Because Autism is a large spectrum.
I am sure there are many with mental health conditions - which also leads me on to another topic - I wonder if the constant model watching and observing zonal borefest of mild conditions each run and then getting one odd eye candy run only for that to be robbed from us is bad for our mental health?
Last year - winter 18/19 was a prime example. I was incredibly depressed when many models around this time last year went for a blocked and cold February only to find out we had an exceptionally warm and dry one - which was the exact opposite who would have guessed we would ever reach 20c in a winter month and bugger me we exceeded 20c and reach 21c in some parts.
We had many eye candy GFS runs/charts last winter as well which kept getting downgraded and all the cold went to the central and mid-western states of the USA and parts of Turkey and Greece got snow as well. That depressed me. Also to know that we had had a SSW and so early yet we still couldn't manage HLB.
I guess the only good thing about this winter is (whether your like or not) is the fact we haven't really had any model flips or eye candy/pub run like GFS charts only for them to get downgraded as we get to the more reliable timeframe or get major model flips. Last winter we had plenty and even our very own Met Office Glosea 5 seasonal outlook model was incorrect. Of course, it's good if you don't like cold and snow but extremely frustrating if you like cold and snowy weather and want to discuss something wintry.
The models have been very accurate this winter so far - I can't criticism them actually for flip flopping or changing as they have all forecast mild and wet weather and it has turned out correct. We all like to see eye candy charts and pub runs showing intense high latitude blocking but if this get's robbed from us 6 hrs later then we would all be furious and feel depressingly frustrated. Gav's P went for a colder than average winter...?! He got last winter wrong too - not dis respect to Gav but I don't know how he feels? I think maybe he followed the analogues too much perhaps as many pointed to cold and blocked winter. But I support Gav and still will as I enjoy his videos.
Re the models again - There has only been one time perhaps a week ago when a few ensembles including the control run picked up on a northerly end of month but this soon got downgraded and once back in early December when the temps in the stratosphere were forecast to rise just before Christmas then this never materialised and the exact opposite happened, we had an exceptionally cold stratosphere and still do and has been the case all winter.
So in away I am pleased there have been no eye candy charts/runs because in the past they have all failed to deliver and it's frustrating. However there are some on here that like to see the roller coaster in models - where as others may look at models and see the same old and find it very boring indeed.
Back to moaning - I am disappointed. Last year we were let down despite the SSW and poor computer models forecasting blocking that never came about and thinking that this will be the year we would finally have a colder than average winter or at least a proper cold spell. But looks like we can't even get that. -1c has been the coldest so far this winter and this was back on 1st December and on 30th Nov we were down to -1.5c here in Exeter. Since then we have had no ground frost. We had a little this morning which has been the first frost of the 2020 but a low of +1c is nothing to celebrate and 1 frost in say 18 days of January - a winter month is a joke.
Moscow has done worse they have yet to get an 'ice day' this January with temperatures above freezing every day.
I can accept a milder winter it's fine but to be over half way through meteorological winter, only to experience 1- maybe 2 ground frosts and a nighttime low of +1.0c is pretty pathetic really. Never have I ever experienced such utter garbage! - Anyway I sound like Richard now ha!
I was really was hopping that this season will deliver a cold snowy spell after such a rubbish December, given the fact we are transferring to an easterly QBO and at solar minimum we should expect more!! COME ON!
Edited by user
18 January 2020 18:28:26
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Reason: Not specified
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com