theweatheroutlook

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2020 00:15:14

The most boring short term thread that I've ever made on TWO. But it's back! And this time we have a greater chance at beating the elusive record! The high pressure that builds over the weekend could rise to possibly record levels on either Sunday or Monday. At the moment it looks unlikely to get quite that high but 1050hpa seems within reach.



For the all time record we need to get 1053.7 hPa


For England only we need 1053.1 hPa


For Wales only we only need 1049.3 hPa

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bolty
16 January 2020 00:20:46
Yes was just looking at this on the models a few minutes ago. A monster high pressure that's for sure.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2020 00:34:05

Projected high pressures:


ICON: 1052hpa (Central S England)


ARPEGE: 1051hpa (South Wales)


GEM: 1050hpa (Cornwall)


UKMO: 1050hpa (Devon/South Wales)


ECM: 1049hpa (Devon/South wales)


WRF: 1049hpa (S Wales/ SW England)


GFS: 1049 hpa (SW England/ South Wales)


BOM: 1048hpa (SW England)


 


 


Taking the models at face value, the all time welsh record looks likely to fall.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2020 06:34:46
Hadn’t noticed that. Exciting times.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
marco 79
16 January 2020 07:05:04
Exciting times ahead...we may get a ground frost from this setup!
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2020 07:53:54
Extreme high pressure readings may not be the most exciting records but not so long ago everybody was saying that it was low pressure/zonal out to the end of Jan and as far as the eye could see. Now we have a monster high pressure building. It probably won't bring any exceptional weather but things can and do change quickly and you never know what's around the corner!
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Gandalf The White
16 January 2020 08:33:26

Originally Posted by: marco 79 

Exciting times ahead...we may get a ground frost from this setup!


You'll get an air frost from this set-up

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2020 08:51:46

Bit of a downgrade this morning. Models now going for closer to 1049hpa


Would be a shame to miss out on the big 50.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
16 January 2020 11:20:51

Locally in Peasedown St John in Bath and North East Somerset, it will be, 1048 hPa Saturday and Sunday.  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
17 January 2020 10:59:07

Modelled peak now a little lower still... they often seem to overdo it a bit in the mid-range, for some reason!


With the huge MJO-triggered anticyclonic wave break in the N. Atlantic, I thought we had a really good chance this time. The break is of the magnitude that can trigger major HLB episodes when it travels further north (which uusally requires MJO to propagate fully across the Pacific).

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 11:52:26

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Modelled peak now a little lower still... they often seem to overdo it a bit in the mid-range, for some reason!


With the huge MJO-triggered anticyclonic wave break in the N. Atlantic, I thought we had a really good chance this time. The break is of the magnitude that can trigger major HLB episodes when it travels further north (which uusally requires MJO to propagate fully across the Pacific).



WRF high res is okay. Manage to convincingly get to 1049hpa across a large area. So I suspect somewhere will see 1050.



While, I think, the UK record is out of the question we do still have a decent chance of breaking the welsh record.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 11:55:59

1050hpa contour on ICON.



I should add at one point ICON had 1052hpa though.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
17 January 2020 12:16:58

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


WRF high res is okay. Manage to convincingly get to 1049hpa across a large area. So I suspect somewhere will see 1050.



While, I think, the UK record is out of the question we do still have a decent chance of breaking the welsh record.


 



What is the UK January record Q? over here it is 1051.9 hPa, measured all the way back in 1905. A hard record to beat! 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 12:18:29

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


What is the UK January record Q? over here it is 1051.9 hPa, measured all the way back in 1905. A hard record to beat! 



Same as the overall UK record.


All the high pressure happens in January! I think there have only been 2 occasions where 1050hpa has been reached outside January.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
17 January 2020 12:22:03

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Same as the overall UK record.


All the high pressure happens in January! I think there have only been 2 occasions where 1050hpa has been reached outside January.


 



Yes, very true. It would be harder for such readings to be achieved in the warmer months I think due to more heat convection etc. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 12:27:46

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Yes, very true. It would be harder for such readings to be achieved in the warmer months I think due to more heat convection etc. 



Imagine stronger baroclinicity also plays a role. Which means both higher and lower pressure. Interestingly enough December holds the title for Low pressure.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
17 January 2020 12:42:21

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 Interestingly enough December holds the title for Low pressure.



November over here. 931.2 hPa all the way back in 1838. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 15:38:28

Seems like there will be two opportunities to break the record. The first



About 2am on Monday. (this is the ICON12z btw)


 


Pressure decreases after that but we see it increasing again and the 1050hpa contour is once again visible at 11am Monday.


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2020 16:47:20

Metoffice going for 1049hpa rather than 1050hpa


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
17 January 2020 17:13:28
out of interest, would the High pressure bring any unusual phenomena?


Low pressure raises sea levels etc

Anything we can expect from this? Clouds, temperature, feel, clarity?

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
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