Metoffice going for 1049hpa rather than 1050hpa

In line with the recently released ECM run that showed a max of 1049.3 hPa over SW UK. But then models tend to be conservative about actual mslp values, so all eyes on still. 

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In line with the recently released ECM run that showed a max of 1049.3 hPa over SW UK. But then models tend to be conservative about actual mslp values, so all eyes on still. 

Which website are you using that gives it to a 10th of a Hpa?

 

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out of interest, would the High pressure bring any unusual phenomena?


Low pressure raises sea levels etc

Anything we can expect from this? Clouds, temperature, feel, clarity?

I'm not sure. I think communication can be worse during high pressure.

We could see some strong inversion type conditions which could give rise to some interesting cloud formations like rolls/gravity wave type stuff.

Excersize might be affected. More air resistance but also greater amounts of oxygen.

 

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Which website are you using that gives it to a 10th of a Hpa?

 

Weathermodels.com. They cite the highest and lowest forecast value of most parameters that are contained within a frame, which in this case was the UK & Ireland one. 

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I'm not sure. I think communication can be worse during high pressure.

We could see some strong inversion type conditions which could give rise to some interesting cloud formations like rolls/gravity wave type stuff.

Excersize might be affected. More air resistance but also greater amounts of oxygen.

 

It's not uncommon to have terrestrial TV signals affected under very high pressure with degraded picture quality. I'm not sure if that applies to satellite signals; could be about to find out.

As you said earlier, it's interesting to see the high pressure reinflate after a brief decline. If the models are correct a fair few places in the west of England could see 1,050mb twice.

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Weathermodels.com. They cite the highest and lowest forecast value of most parameters that are contained within a frame, which in this case was the UK & Ireland one. 

Ah it's paid. I personally use

windy.com

or

meteologix.com/

 

for ECM stuff. Both give a huge variety of parameters but unforunately only give MSLP to 1 hpa

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Ah it's paid. I personally use

windy.com

or

meteologix.com/

 

for ECM stuff. Both give a huge variety of parameters but unforunately only give MSLP to 1 hpa

Here's the chart I was referring to. Max/Min values stated on top right. 

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Here's the chart I was referring to. Max/Min values stated on top right. 

The 12z ECM run shows much the same, with the highest pressure just above 1049mb over an area covering the northern half of Devon, through the Bristol Channel and up into southwestern parts of Wales.

https://weather.us/images/overlay/space.png

 

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12z Faxes are out:

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EPS ensembles. Maximun MSLP:

1052: |||

1051: ||

1050: ||||||||||||||||||

1049: |||||||||||||||||||||||||

1048: ||||                             

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Here's the chart I was referring to. Max/Min values stated on top right. 

Looks like Ryan Maude's stuff. He is always good.

 

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12z Faxes are out:

Not sure I've ever seen a 1050 on one of these.

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I think this article is public, it's certainly available via a search...

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.35

1050 mb over southern England would be very exceptional. Also, nb, 18/1/1882...

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The highest I've recorded was 1048 on 7th Feb 2012
However even better amateur stations can be a bit wooly on barometer, for a start it depends on altitude - just carrying the station console up or downstairs affects the reading (it's measured at the indoor readout not outdoors)
So you need to accurately enter your ASL ideally to within a couple of metres.

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The met office have issued a severe cold weather alert to go with the high pressure between 1800 on Sunday 19 Jan and 1800 on Tuesday for all of southern England with the exception of London.

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:47 on Fri 17 Jan 2020

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1800 on Sunday 19 Jan and 1800 on Tuesday 21 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High pressure will build across the country over the weekend and into early next week. This will bring a spell of dry weather and light winds, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. The cold overnight temperatures will be offset by generally fine daytime conditions with sunny spells. However, fog patches will develop across central and southern areas Sunday night into Monday, suppressing daytime temperatures in places where slow to clear. Later Monday and into Tuesday, freezing fog may become more widespread although confidence decreases. Some cloudier conditions are also expected to spread southwards and bring less cold conditions, but the speed of this progress is a little uncertain at present.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert 

 

The 12z ECM run shows much the same, with the highest pressure just above 1049mb over an area covering the northern half of Devon, through the Bristol Channel and up into southwestern parts of Wales.

https://weather.us/images/overlay/space.png

 

1949.4 hPa to be exact! 0.1 higher than the 06z run. 

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1949.4 hPa to be exact! 0.1 higher than the 06z run. 

That would cause a few headaches....

But seriously, that's remarkably consistent.

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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m17_sea-level-pressure/20200120-1200z.html 

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It's not uncommon to have terrestrial TV signals affected under very high pressure with degraded picture quality. I'm not sure if that applies to satellite signals; could be about to find out.

As you said earlier, it's interesting to see the high pressure reinflate after a brief decline. If the models are correct a fair few places in the west of England could see 1,050mb twice.

On TV forecasts they alwatys used to say that under high pressure conditions the sigmal could be affected though I never recall expreirncing that myself. I don't recall them saying that fot a few years now so I suspect that digital signals aren't affected by this.

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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m17_sea-level-pressure/20200120-1200z.html 

Bit of a downgrade then. 3 of the EPS on the 0Z had 1052

 

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