If the maximum value per day is 23 and the ensembles go out to day 16 how can the total snow row value reach 500?

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If the maximum value per day is 23 and the ensembles go out to day 16 how can the total snow row value reach 500?

There are 4 runs per day. 

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There are 4 runs per day. 

So is the daily max value 92 then? “Inverness” is at a total of 226 currently but that appears to be the sum of a single ensemble set (00z) not the past 4?

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So is the daily max value 92 then? “Inverness” is at a total of 226 currently but that appears to be the sum of a single ensemble set (00z) not the past 4?

Yesterday's total for Inverness was 1002. The latest ensemble set (00z) is at 226. 

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Yesterday's total for Inverness was 1002. The latest ensemble set (00z) is at 226. 

Okay, thanks.

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If there is one positive to be taken from this morning's output generally, it is that at least a temporary break from the recent very unsettled spell looks to be possible, if the ECM 00z op has it right. GFS seems to be thinking along the same lines too although it has the high a little further south than ECM.

We could well do with a drier spell here, even if it is still mostly mild. The ground here is fast starting to resemble swampland!

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After a quick glance through its pants for colder weather fans, utter unremitting rubbish.

I have thrown the towel in this year , its dire , I think I have had to scrape the windscreen 3 times . Hardly any ground frost to speak about , nothing on the horizon at all.

Just gone through all ENS ( GFS) SHOCKING 

 

I feel your pain but both this morning's gfs and especially ECM are at least cold and frosty. Which is a start . No sign of snow yet though.

 

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Not exactly January 1795 but this is as cold as gfs has been all winter by some margin. 

 

 

 

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After a quick glance through its pants for colder weather fans, utter unremitting rubbish.

I'm no expert, Jacko4 - but looking over the available information it seem unlikely Lincolnshire will see any snow for January and February looks little better. Maybe a tad towards the back end. I had been pinning hopes of snow on February. I still am, but now it's February 2021.

I expect folks will soon start mumbling about the possibility of snow at Easter. No harm in hoping...

We've barely touched our supply of firewood.

Roger

 

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I'm no expert, Jacko4 - but looking over the available information it seem unlikely Lincolnshire will see any snow for January and February looks little better. Maybe a tad towards the back end. I had been pinning hopes of snow on February. I still am, but now it's February 2021.

I expect folks will soon start mumbling about the possibility of snow at Easter. No harm in hoping...

We've barely touched our supply of firewood.

Roger

 

 

February?

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February?

Yes, Gooner - what do I need to add?

R.

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I'm no expert, Jacko4 - but looking over the available information it seem unlikely Lincolnshire will see any snow for January and February looks little better. Maybe a tad towards the back end. I had been pinning hopes of snow on February. I still am, but now it's February 2021.

I expect folks will soon start mumbling about the possibility of snow at Easter. No harm in hoping...

We've barely touched our supply of firewood.

Roger

 

What models are you looking at that go out to February?

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Interesting end to GFS op run, think the focus in the thread is now too far ahead. Blocking is modelled for near future and some chilly weather will be upon us. This could change the whole dynamic, deflecting the usual flow in a favourable way. January is very much still possibly going to deliver some wintry weather

The focus is too far in the future... as always seems to be the way in this thread I think some people are living a month ahead of me as they already seem to know the model output for February on January 13th! Any winning lottery numbers would be gratefully received 🙂

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Not a terrible GFS 6z op - some stormy stuff this week, some snow for the high ground in the North at times and a quiet, settled and quite cool spell before more mobility and a chilly end. Could be better, could be worse.

 

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The focus is too far in the future... as always seems to be the way in this thread I think some people are living a month ahead of me as they already seem to know the model output for February on January 13th! Any winning lottery numbers would be gratefully received :)

Agreed. 
There now appears to be firm consensus on a UK high by this weekend with ‘seasonally’ cool settled weather and some frosts.

Thereafter a number of options - taking us to nearly the end of January. Crystal balls required after that.

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GEFS 850s look OK. For a month that was in some quarters being touted as a near record breaking mild one the mean spends an increasingly long time below the long term average from the weekend 🥴

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What models are you looking at that go out to February?

As I said, Rob - I am no expert, so I have been watching and extrapolating from the clever stuff here, then looking at the met sites,  Metcheck for example, that do give a tentative forward look - even though we all know how dodgy that can be and that the best-guesses can change.  For my location this is currently showing a remarkably dry February with temps only a bit below freezing at times. Only 24th is showing possible snow.

Slipping on to March - of course this is guesswork - it looks milder, but with snow indicated for 12th, 24th and 28th. I appreciate this a just a bit of fun and not to be taken as reliable - but if not true this is at least credible, based on the current winter. But as I stress, I am not a meteorologist and am just applying a vaguely scientific eye to easily-available information - so your superior take will always be fascinating.

TWO  Winter February forecast [01/12/2019] said: "Milder and wetter than average."

First half

Quite unsettled weather is forecast for much of the period with temperatures generally often close to average, but above average at times in the south. Rainfall levels probably slightly above the average with drier spells most frequent in the south and east.

Second half

The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions. Milder and unsettled conditions are considered likely to return in the north and west. Quieter and drier spells are more likely in the south and east.

Keep it coming!

Roger

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Yes, Gooner - what do I need to add?

R.

The same as Rob - what are you looking at for the month of February 

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