It’s weird because I think it’s a decent set so far (ECM to complete). The GFS op again is in the milder part of the suite and GEM shows decent mid Atlantic amplification again after dropping it earlier. ECM going the same way as GEM.

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It’s weird because I think it’s a decent set so far (ECM to complete). The GFS op again is in the milder part of the suite and GEM shows decent mid Atlantic amplification again after dropping it earlier. ECM going the same way as GEM.

ECM crashes and burns somewhat in FI.  Next!

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Quite a flip in the ECM run from a northerly...

 

 

To this...in 12z run

 

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Yesterday's tentative signals for some amplification appear to have largely vanished this evening - though GEM still manages a glancing northerly. Was it a mirage? Or will it reappear in subsequent runs?

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Things are moving around so quickly at the moment. I would not be surprised if the mid Atlantic block or something similar was back in the morning. Plenty to keep an eye on at the moment with a block due in our locality in about 10 days and the ECM average shows that nicely https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

Martin

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Love the GEM for Aberdeen:

 

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Trendsetter 

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Quite a flip in the ECM run from a northerly...

 

 

To this...in 12z run

 

If those hunting cold and snow just give up, like I have, then these sort of charts won't be quite so disappointing. Winter is a fail this year, and there's nothing in the models that makes me think otherwise. We are running over 3c above average in January, and Moscow is having its mildest winter in a generation.

Giving up is the only sane option left.

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If those hunting cold and snow just give up, like I have, then these sort of charts won't be quite so disappointing. Winter is a fail this year, and there's nothing in the models that makes me think otherwise. We are running over 3c above average in January, and Moscow is having its mildest winter in a generation.

Giving up is the only sane option left.

We might as well close this thread then until March 1st.

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Things are moving around so quickly at the moment. I would not be surprised if the mid Atlantic block or something similar was back in the morning. Plenty to keep an eye on at the moment with a block due in our locality in about 10 days and the ECM average shows that nicely https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

Martin

It's remarkable for the ensemble mean to show such a clear signal that far out. Mostly you get a very washed-out pressure pattern when all the ensemble members are averaged.

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If those hunting cold and snow just give up, like I have, then these sort of charts won't be quite so disappointing. Winter is a fail this year, and there's nothing in the models that makes me think otherwise. We are running over 3c above average in January, and Moscow is having its mildest winter in a generation.

Giving up is the only sane option left.

Maybe we should move to Alaska. Judging by the temperatures in Anchorage recently, as shown in the weather column of my daily paper, it's having its coldest winter in a generation.

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This might all collapse back to the 2019-2020 default zonal pattern, but there is a new volatility that there has not been since Movember, so I would not be surprised to see a flip-flopping dance with a cold incursion by the end of Jan, but it's tea leaves and straws only thus far...

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This might all collapse back to the 2019-2020 default zonal pattern, but there is a new volatility that there has not been since Movember, so I would not be surprised to see a flip-flopping dance with a cold incursion by the end of Jan, but it's tea leaves and straws only thus far...

Yes let's hope so - even mild winters like 2013/2014 still saw some cold incursions - it's very rare or extremely rare or unheard of to go through 3 months of winter with the same old south westerly air!! Surely there has to be some colder potential even if this winter turns out well above average. What are your thoughts? I looked at the temps in strat @ 10hpa and if anything the temps are lowering and falling by +240 thus a stronger PV!! So strange.

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I have thrown the towel in this year , its dire , I think I have had to scrape the windscreen 3 times . Hardly any ground frost to speak about , nothing on the horizon at all.

Just gone through all ENS ( GFS) SHOCKING 

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We might as well close this thread then until March 1st.

 

Oh I am still lurking and we all know March and April can produce snow but January for sure is down the pan without a doubt - I hold out little hope for the rest of this winter , sadly.

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Yes let's hope so - even mild winters like 2013/2014 still saw some cold incursions - it's very rare or extremely rare or unheard of to go through 3 months of winter with the same old south westerly air!! Surely there has to be some colder potential even if this winter turns out well above average. What are your thoughts? I looked at the temps in strat @ 10hpa and if anything the temps are lowering and falling by +240 thus a stronger PV!! So strange.

Do you or anyone know when the QBO 28/ 29 months is up and turns easterly, as this would probably be enough to see a pattern change?

The biggest influence is the jet. It's fire-hose like thrashings are so unpredictable that any model past 5 days is very rapidly inaccurate. When it buckles or splits ther is a chance of cold incursions particularly from the Arctic even in predominantly zonal years, and as the days lengthen, the cold over the pole strengthens - as it is dark 24 hours there still,  so whilst the incursion might not precipitate the long 10-14 day Scandinavia HP cold spell of the winters of my youth (that Bert Ford and Bill Giles would refer to as a common winter blocking pattern), a two day + toppler with snow showers leading to 1" accumulations on low ground, sufficient to create a Christmas card scene is very possible, just from a buckling jet pattern. It would be really exceptional not to see such a pattern in the 3 winter months for sure. Not impossible but really exceptional. There is no doubt that the jet is generally more energetic on average than it was back in the decades of my youth, but with 0.5 degrees additional global heating that is hardly surprising, and a stronger jet is less likely to get blocked and for lesser time periods, logically. However, it is not impossible. I sense a pattern anomaly is not far away from the increased volatility in the models. The predicted jet pattern is all over the place.

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Do you or anyone know when the QBO 28/ 29 months is up and turns easterly, as this would probably be enough to see a pattern change?

The biggest influence is the jet. It's fire-hose like thrashings are so unpredictable that any model past 5 days is very rapidly inaccurate. When it buckles or splits ther is a chance of cold incursions particularly from the Arctic even in predominantly zonal years, and as the days lengthen, the cold over the pole strengthens - as it is dark 24 hours there still,  so whilst the incursion might not precipitate the long 10-14 day Scandinavia HP cold spell of the winters of my youth (that Bert Ford and Bill Giles would refer to as a common winter blocking pattern), a two day + toppler with snow showers leading to 1" accumulations on low ground, sufficient to create a Christmas card scene is very possible, just from a buckling jet pattern. It would be really exceptional not to see such a pattern in the 3 winter months for sure. Not impossible but really exceptional. There is no doubt that the jet is generally more energetic on average than it was back in the decades of my youth, but with 0.5 degrees additional global heating that is hardly surprising, and a stronger jet is less likely to get blocked and for lesser time periods, logically. However, it is not impossible. I sense a pattern anomaly is not far away from the increased volatility in the models. The predicted jet pattern is all over the place.

 

Pretty sure Gav mentions on one of his Videos that the QBO moves towards and Easterly in the next month or so , but that alone doesn't guarantee us anything 

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Stormy this wee kwith tomorrow's 940mb off Rockall moving NW and decaying, then another 975mb for Faeroes on Friday. Cold zonal stuff in Scotland (mountain blizzards IMO) but hanging on to mild SW in the south. High pressure 1040mb centred over England Sun 19th - Wed 22nd, slack wind pattern so windscreen scrapers may get their opportunity, sinks southwards with another storm for the NW 970mb Mon 27th. Yesterday's retrogression and subsequent northerlies have disappeared.

ECM agrees with GFS above, though the HP from Wed 22nd is a little further north with some weak easterlies, not that they connect with any source of cold air.

GEFS temps up and down around the normal with general rain (snow over hills in the N?) until the 18th, then a dry spell with temps on the low side wrt normal in the S, but above normal in the N, until 25th Jan, by which time temps are becoming unpredictable and there is a little rain generally

Little comfort in the GEFS T >+300 for cold weather fans, even cherry picking is a thankless job.

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I have thrown the towel in this year , its dire , I think I have had to scrape the windscreen 3 times . Hardly any ground frost to speak about , nothing on the horizon at all.

Just gone through all ENS ( GFS) SHOCKING 

Welcome to my club Marcus.

It's been the worst winter I can recall. Simply no hope whatsoever.

As you say, I daresay we will see something wintry in March or April, when its nigh on useless, but for me, thoughts are turning to spring and the end of the 2019-20 gloomfest.

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Snow row counts were hitting 500+ last January even in London. This winter's highest to date was on 05/12 when 150 was reached.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?type=daily&location=London#London

 

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