12z GFS out to 288 hours.

The pattern is the same as previously. A week long atlantic onslaught followed by high pressure nosing in from the south.

This run tends to retrogress the HP.

A possible northerly tease later on ?

Turns out to be a glancing NW blow before that beast of an Azores High nudges back in again. Slim pickings indeed.

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12z GFS out to 288 hours.

The pattern is the same as previously. A week long atlantic onslaught followed by high pressure nosing in from the south.

This run tends to retrogress the HP.

A possible northerly tease later on ?

That AZ HP is some beast, a real bloated fat controller 

Hmmm I don’t like the look of that could be a very nasty week short waves and secondary lows in a diffluent jet usually  bad news for uk with stormy conditions difficult to pin down.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

There appears to be more of a signal for cooler zonality next week with a stronger jet, high pressure further SW and more in the way of polar maritime incursions at times. Better news for the Scottish ski resorts. 

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Hmmm I don’t like the look of that could be a very nasty week short waves and secondary lows in a diffluent jet usually  bad news for uk with stormy conditions difficult to pin down.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

Indeed, with the return of the boring in-your-face southerly gales for us here at Kent next week.

But thankfully the unsettled phase doesn't look like lasting too long with high pressure trying to nudge in by next weekend.

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Big ensemble shift for NYC 00z run:

Follow the operational run...

+5c @ 850 around 21st Jan:

 

18z:

Operational run is down to -20c on 21st Jan:

A 25 degree (C) flip @ 850 for 21st January. JUST WOW!

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Jetstream strongly to the south for the coming week, breaking up into meanders by the end, resuming strongly to the north in the following week, then flipping back south of the UK.

The feature of the week is the storm late Mon into Tue, 940 mb Rockall, MetO has wind warning out for all the west of the UK for Mon though I wouldn't be surprised to see this extended to Tue for the NW. Calms down quickly, small follow-on trough on Fri, then mild 1035mb high for most of week beginning 20 Jan. By the end of that week, LP and cold air rather tentatively approaching from the north, not so much of  a blast as yesterday's forecast but additional troughs running across the south..

ECM similar but Monday's storm a bit further north, severe gales may be confined to NW England, Ireland & Scotland. End of run on 21 Jan has an interesting LP over N Norway with northerlies threatening to come south in our direction as the HP retrogresses more than GFS forecast.

GEFS line graphs agreed on an up-and-down temp pattern to approx 17th (but consistently below normal in Scotland), then mostly on the mild side of normal to 25th, then colder but no extremes in most runs.  Rainfall matches the synoptic pattern with a drier period 20th - 25th.

Still predominantly mild on the GEFS postage stamps well out into FI

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Quite a change in the snow rows for the end of the runs today

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Bumping up to 10 at the end. Trends showing the transfer of the PV towards Russia 

Martin

 

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A fairly strong signal emerging for a lowering in temperatures as we move through the latter half of the month.

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A much stronger and potentially clearer signal is emerging at 240 hours for high pressure dominance.

Here is the mean at 240 hours.

What is absent in the suite is the distinct continuing lack of northern blocking. The furthest north we can get the HP is to a UKSceuro. The colder T2m's result from inversions rather than anything traditionally polar or arctic.

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Examination of ECM ensembles also suggests a marked rise in pressure by day 10.

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A much stronger and potentially clearer signal is emerging at 240 hours for high pressure dominance.

Here is the mean at 240 hours.

What is absent in the suite is the distinct continuing lack of northern blocking. The furthest north we can get the HP is to a UKSceuro. The colder T2m's result from inversions rather than anything traditionally polar or arctic.

The scenario which you describe would most of the time deliver a mild SWly flow away from the south, compared with the upcoming pattern which will give more average albeit unsettled conditions for more northern parts.

Taking that mean, if it were to be an actual synoptic chart, at least half the country would be mild and cloudy/damp while further south depending on wind and cloud cover it may be colder. Not a desirable or pleasant outcome for many. Of course the mean will mask the specifics. 

It is encouraging to see the ECM 10 day op chart showing a pattern change of sorts with heights rising to the west  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Early days but quite a few options on the cards compared with a week or so ago.

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The scenario which you describe would most of the time deliver a mild SWly flow away from the south, compared with the upcoming pattern which will give more average albeit unsettled conditions for more northern parts.

Taking that mean, if it were to be an actual synoptic chart, at least half the country would be mild and cloudy/damp while further south depending on wind and cloud cover it may be colder. Not a desirable or pleasant outcome for many. Of course the mean will mask the specifics. 

It is encouraging to see the ECM 10 day op chart showing a pattern change of sorts with heights rising to the west  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Early days but quite a few options on the cards compared with a week or so ago.

yes -it's straw clutching perhaps in the face of such little joy to date for cold weather fans, but I agree there are increasing signs of a patter change kin the longer term. The jet does tend to weaken into Feb, and the polar vortex should become more unstable. There seems to be a plume of warm air penetrating into the mothern Canada section of the P V around the time the high struggles to plume over the uk, so perhaps we will see more volatility in the PV in Feb, and some spillage in our direction. 

I saw a peacock butterfly on Wednesday!! Shows how mild its been. Quite disruptive for our wildlife. I hope it can rehibernate without loosing too much energy. 

The models are showing a predominance of polar maritime incursion as the jet stays to the south a Lille more. It's tea leaf stuff right now, but I sense a change by early or mid Feb. We'll see if the models increase these subtle signs in the coming days.

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Pardon the typos in the last posr

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 The scenario which you describe would most of the time deliver a mild SWly flow away from the south, compared with the upcoming pattern which will give more average albeit unsettled conditions for more northern parts.

Taking that mean, if it were to be an actual synoptic chart, at least half the country would be mild and cloudy/damp while further south depending on wind and cloud cover it may be colder. Not a desirable or pleasant outcome for many. Of course the mean will mask the specifics. 

It is encouraging to see the ECM 10 day op chart showing a pattern change of sorts with heights rising to the west  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Early days but quite a few options on the cards compared with a week or so ago.

Hi Doc.

Apologies, I was referring more from a Central England perspective. For Scotland the unsettled theme would continue unabated. Potentially very mild for Aberdeen thanks to Fohn effects and considerably drier thanks to the rain shadow effect. 

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Hi Doc.

Apologies, I was referring more from a Central England perspective. For Scotland the unsettled theme would continue unabated. Potentially very mild for Aberdeen thanks to Fohn effects and considerably drier thanks to the rain shadow effect. 

You may be right Steve but personally I’m not seeing that scenario except in a mean blend.

Theres more of an “average” signal here now (after today which is a perfect example of what you describe!)

 

Having said that that I think the more pressing and imminent issue before any of these scenarios may or may not play out is the risk of some very unsettled weather in the coming days.

The little feature that keeps appearing for Tuesday will cause quite a few forecasting headaches I think. 

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Unseasonal Warmth of the eastern Seaboard today:

 

Then temperatures of 18-21c in DC early hours of tomorrow morning:

Not sure what the record is for January warmth? -talk about a huge temperature contrast/ gradient - with bitterly cold air in Canada is bound to fuel up the jet further!? 

 

 

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It’s risky pre-empting GFS but it looks akin to this morning ECM with setting up retrogression and a northerly medium term.

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Glimmers of hope circa 240 - 288 on the 6z GFS.

If the PV can be punctured we can guarantee that a very compact volume of cold air will surge southwards somehwere.

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Signs of high pressure even in Scotland.

We need to see higher pressure to our north if we are to stand a chance of disrupting this woeful pattern.

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