BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Mild outlook but often wet and windy in the north
_________________________________
Saturday 4 January – Sunday 12 January
Quite mild for most but wet in the northwest
The coming week is likely to see a large contrast in the weather of western Scotland and the weather in south-eastern areas of the UK. North-western parts of the UK will be often wet and windy with northwest Scotland seeing the most prolonged and heaviest of the rain. Meanwhile, the south-eastern quarter of England will be often dry and calmer with only infrequent rainfall. This weekend, we will already see this contrasting weather pattern with north-west Scotland seeing some prolonged outbreaks of rain. Other northern areas of the UK will be cloudy at times and breezy with patchy rain on Saturday giving way to more prolonged rain on Sunday.
The southern half of the UK will be largely dry and bright this weekend. Through Monday and Tuesday, it will become more widely wet and windy at times across the country with outbreaks of rain spreading from west to east. On Tuesday, gales or severe gales could bring damaging gusts of wind for a time in northwest Scotland. However, it will be mild for all. The middle to latter part of next week will also be rather mild for many but with rain and brisk winds most frequent in the north-west. Further south and east, it should often be dry and less breezy.
Monday 13 January – Sunday 19 January
A mild outlook - wettest in the northwest
Often mild conditions are likely to persist into the third week of January. Similar to the preceding week, north-western areas of the British Isles are likely to be wettest and windiest with frequent rainfall bringing above normal rainfall amounts. Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and Cumbria would be favoured as seeing the highest rainfall amounts. Further south and east, across much of the rest of the UK, conditions are likely to be more variable because of an area of high pressure expected over the near-continent.
There is likely to be occasional wet and breezy weather but with high pressure exerting its influence at times, bringing some lengthy periods of dry and calmer weather here too. Overall, temperatures are expected to be above average for January although occasional night frosts can be expected, particularly in the south and east of the country.
Monday 20 January – Sunday 2 February
More widely drier for a time, then wetter later
Late January is favoured to see high pressure shift nearer to the UK for a time. This means we should see more widely drier and calmer conditions for a while over the country with rainfall in the north-west becoming less frequent. No significant or lasting cold weather is expected but we can expect some night frosts and fog at times due to winds falling lighter, particularly over England and Wales.
By the very end of the month and into the start of February, there are hints that high pressure could move further away to the south-east again. Therefore, we could well see wetter and breezier conditions returning from the Atlantic then. However, there are chances that high pressure stays more stubborn or shifts further north than currently expected, which would bring a persistence of dry and calmer weather with a greater risk of some cold weather at times, particularly in the south.
Further ahead
We will take another look to see whether north-western parts of the UK can expect to see a temporary respite from the rain and wind later this month
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook