Australia bushfires: Record number of emergencies in New South Wales

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Australian authorities say an "unprecedented" number of emergency-level bushfires are threatening the state of New South Wales (NSW). More than 90 blazes were raging across the state on Friday.

Gusty winds and up to 35C heat have exacerbated the fires, many of which are in drought-affected areas. There are reports of people trapped in their homes in several places, with crew unable to reach them due to the strength of the fires.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50341207

Next week

Further rain at times
Some hill snow
Feeling chilly
Risk of frost

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/50354048

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled with more progressive fronts later.

_________________________________

Saturday 9 November – Sunday 17 November

Unsettled, cold at times, with frequent rain

A very cold start across most of the country on Saturday with a band of rain pushing in from the west to affect western and and south-western parts of the country, perhaps some central areas too. As the rain first moves in it will meet cold air and this may bring sleet and snow on hills and, perhaps briefly to lowlands. Whilst the sleet and snow will quickly transition to rain as the front brings in milder air, the Welsh mountains may cling on to some cooler air for much of the day so snow is possible in here int the early afternoon before things dry out. Most of Scotland and eastern England will stay dry and sunny on Saturday, but will feel cool through the day. Sunday looks to be a largely dry if rather chilly day, but overnight an active front will arrive, bringing rain for most by Monday morning.

Thankfully though, the front will sweep across the UK quickly, and by midday or early afternoon rain will clear to the southeast. It will, unfortunately, scupper chances of observing the transit of Mercury across the Sun in the Southeast (with proper protective solar filters on your telescope!). For the rest of the week and weekend, low pressure is expected to linger near or just north of the UK, keeping things unsettled. After a brief, early-week stint of more progressive fronts, things will gradually transition to slower-moving, inactive fronts. This will mean longer outbreaks of rain in places, but also some longer dry interludes as well. Low pressure will keep the temperatures on the cooler side of average, and later in the week there is a chance that a few nights could be quite cold with widespread frost.

Monday 18 November – Sunday 24 November

Staying cooler than normal and often wet

For the last full week of November, little change is expected in the overall weather pattern for the UK. We will likely still see low pressure overhead or nearby keeping things unsettled and a bit cooler than normal. This low will have some slow-moving and weak fronts at times, and these will bring some longer outbreaks of rain for some parts of the country while elsewhere there are some lengthy dry spells and fine, sunny days. As the low pressure centre shifts around, there is a chance that occasionally we may see a weak ridge of high pressure creep in. If this happens overnight, widespread frost is likely to occur across the country.

This will also increase the chances for some hill sleet or snow as the next band of rain moves in over the colder air. With temperatures falling one or two degrees below average through the week, things will tend to feel a bit wintry with some cold mornings and crisp afternoons. There is also a risk that some of these slow-moving fronts could bring a locally very heavy rain event to some spots. This will likely trigger some localised flooding as well. Unfortunately, pinning down exactly where this may happen is not currently possible. The fronts will also tend to be weak, so heavy rain is not as likely, but any strengthening of small-scale low pressure could set up a heavy rain event.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 8 December

Staying wet, but increasingly windy and mild

Towards the end of November and through the first week of December, we expect there to be a gradual shift in the weather pattern from this cooler, often wet October and November into a more typical winter scenario. This will see high pressure to the east in Russia and Scandinavia weaken and allow Atlantic weather systems to return into North Europe. This will bring more active fronts and some windier weather, so things will still be rather unsettled. It is, after all, still a British autumn. The main change in that warm fronts and high pressure to the southwest will tend to send more tropical air into the UK, lifted out temperatures from below average to near or a bit above average. Overnight frosts and hill snow will gradually become less likely.

There is a risk that a few of these weather systems may bring in some very strong winds as well. Again, this is nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year, but we have so far had a somewhat unusual weather pattern dominating. However, there is a chance that this strong high pressure in Russia will be a bit more tenacious, clinging to life and sticking around deep into December. If this happens, things will stay cooler with some longer outbreaks of rain and lighter winds. As the days continue to shorten, snow chances will increase in hills and even for lowlands.

Further ahead

How likely will more frosts be for the rest of November, and will the odds that we see any early lowland snowstorms increases head into winter?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

'Danger to life': Seven severe flood warnings remain after deluge

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Boris Johnson says the flooding does not amount to a "national emergency", but Labour calls for an inquiry.

There remains a "danger to life" in parts of South Yorkshire after some areas had a month's rainfall in 24 hours. Seven severe flood warnings are in place - all of them on the River Don, in and around Doncaster. There are also 54 flood warnings, covering rivers including the Trent, the Dearne, the Derwent, the Ryton and the Rother.

Boris Johnson has said the flooding does not amount to a "national emergency" - as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called for an inquiry.  The prime minister visited the flood-hit town of Matlock in Derbyshire on Friday - close to where a woman died in a swollen river. He thanked members of the emergency services and said the government had allocated £2.6bn for a "huge programme of flood defences and flood preparation". 

Mr Corbyn called for an inquiry into how the UK's flood defences could be improved. "My thoughts are with the family of the woman who has died after being swept away by floodwater in Derbyshire," he wrote on Twitter. "There needs to be an inquiry into these floods and what more should be done to protect communities from the growing risks of flooding."

 

https://news.sky.com/story/danger-to-life-seven-severe-flood-warnings-remain-after-deluge-11857938?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

I was born and bred in Matlock Derbyshire and never in 51yrs had the river been that high...it has been reported by Matlock council that it was 5cm below the December 1965 flood line.
In the late 1970s they dredged the river from Matlock bridge to south of Matlock Bath by up to 2m and removed a weir. You can imagine how much rain must of fallen to reach that level. The area is fairly fast flowing so silt build up has been minimal.

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Thursday 14 Nov - Saturday 23 Nov

Thursday is likely to be a continuation of the recent unsettled theme, with showers or longer periods of rain for some, especially in the southern half of the UK. The best chance of sunshine will be in sheltered northeastern areas. The end of the week will probably remain cold and unsettled, with rain/showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which would lead more rain in the east and drier conditions for western locations. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter periods, which may extend across much of the country from the northwest towards the end of the period. However, spells of wind and rain are still possible across southern parts.

Sunday 24 Nov - Sunday 8 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Next 10 day's

Cold
Blustery at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/50362294

Friday 15 Nov - Sunday 24 Nov

Friday is likely to be an improvement from the recent unsettled theme, with showers or longer periods of rain pushing away from the southern half of the UK. Drier, sunnier conditions are set to follow, with a few wintry showers over the hills in the northeast. Looking ahead, a return to cold and unsettled weather seems likely with rain/showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which would lead to more rain in the east and drier conditions for western locations. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter periods, which may extend across much of the country from the northwest towards the end of the period. However, spells of wind and rain are still possible across southern parts.

Monday 25 Nov - Monday 9 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

I'm A Celebrity bosses are 'on red alert' as bush fires rage just 10 kilometres away from the campsite DAYS before the show returns

 

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Bush fires decimating portions of rural New South Wales and Queensland could pose a serious risk to the current series of I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! The ITV show - hosted by Ant McPartlin and Declan Donnelly - is poised to return for a nineteenth series on November 17, but producers are said to be concerned about the natural disaster and its proximity to their purpose built camp. The nearest reported fires have been 10 kilometres away at Queensland's Lamington National Park, prompting bosses to 'closely monitor' the situation ahead of the launch. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-7671895/Im-Celeb-bosses-red-alert-Australias-bush-fires-threaten-burn-campsite.html

Met office weather warnings for Thursday

Appears even London is in the rain and hill snow area

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-11-14&id=ec08dc06-1b6d-4946-9fd1-158356bd3ecf

 

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Saturday 16 Nov - Monday 25 Nov

Saturday looks to be an improvement from the recent unsettled theme. Showers or spells of rain should push away from the southeast leaving drier and sunnier conditions. Rain looks likely to creep into the west throughout the day, with Northern Ireland and Scotland seeing the worst of the weather. Looking ahead, a return to the unsettled weather seems probable with rain or showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which could lead to more rain in the east and drier conditions in the west. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter spells, which may extend across much of the country towards the end of the period.

Tuesday 26 Nov - Tuesday 10 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 17 Nov - Tuesday 26 Nov

Mist and freezing fog possible under clear skies to start on Sunday. A cloudy, cold day follows with many areas seeing showers through the day. Through the start of next week confidence is very low but some dry, bright and cold weather is likely in places but rain still possible, falling as hill snow at times. Frost and freezing fog possible by night. By the end of next week there may be a switch to more unsettled and relatively milder conditions. This will bring rain for many, but particularly in western areas, and the risk of snow on higher ground accompanied by strong winds. By the end of the period more settled weather is expected for many but remaining unsettled in the west. Temperatures milder than of late.

Wednesday 27 Nov - Wednesday 11 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possibly gales continuing in the west. Through early December confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This will bring drier conditions for many through the day but there will be a chance of frost and fog developing for many areas through the night. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and often wet, but less cold later.

_________________________________

Wednesday 13 November – Sunday 17 November

Unsettled, cold at times, with frequent rain

Low pressure is likely to be near or over the UK, especially across the south, throughout the rest of this week and the coming weekend. From Wednesday, low pressure will slide across Ireland and bring outbreaks of rain to the Southwest and Wales, as well as Northern Ireland later. Eastern England and Scotland will stay mostly fine and dry, but a few isolated showers in northern Scotland may bring some hail to a few spots.

On Thursday, this low pressure system will head into the English Channel, bringing a slow-moving and weakening front over the south. Although the front is fairly weak, some northerly winds on the northern side will help bring outbreaks of heavy rain into the Midlands and East Anglia. Through the evening and overnight the front will drift northwards into southern parts of northern England, but heavy rain will tend to ease. There is a risk of a some areas in the Midlands, especially the East Midlands, seeing flooding from more heavy rain where river levels are already high.

The end of the week and start of the weekend will see this low pressure linger to the southeast of the UK and drifting into the North Sea. This will keep much of England and Wales wet and windy, while Scotland stays drier with a brisk northerly wind. There is a chance of some locally heavy downpours in the East on Saturday, with further flooding risks. However, by Sunday a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, bringing a respite to the wet weather. It will turn cooler with brisk northerly winds bringing in some cold, polar air.

Monday 18 November – Sunday 24 November

Cold start but turning milder then wetter

For the last full week of November, little change is expected to the overall weather pattern for the UK. We are likely to still see low pressure overhead or nearby keeping things unsettled and a bit cooler than normal. This low will have some slow-moving and weak fronts at times, and these will bring some longer outbreaks of rain for some parts of the country while elsewhere there are some lengthy dry spells and fine, sunny days.

As the low pressure centre shifts around, there is a chance that we may occasionally see a weak ridge of high pressure creep in. On Monday 18th one of these highs looks like it will move in from the west. With low pressure to the east bringing in some colder polar air from the north, the high pressure will make Monday night feel very cold with widespread frost across the country. Low pressure returning for the rest of the week will see things stay a bit milder and unsettled, with a risk of some locally heavy rain. This will likely trigger some localised flooding.

For the end of the week and weekend, we should start to see a gradual shift in the weather pattern as low pressure becomes more entrenched to the west and southwest of the UK. This will keep things unsettled and wet at times, but it will also shift the winds to a more southerly direction and tap into some milder Mediterranean air. Temperatures should tend to be closer to normal, for the time of year by the weekend, bringing some relief from the recent colder weather.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 8 December

Gradually shifting to more typical winter weather

Towards the end of November and through the first week of December, we expect there to be a gradual shift from the wet and unsettled conditions seen so often during October and November to a more typical winter scenario. This will see high pressure to the east, across Russia and Scandinavia weaken and allow Atlantic weather systems to return into North Europe, bringing more active fronts. These fronts will be faster-moving and bring brief outbreaks of heavy rain and strong winds at times.

The main change is that warm fronts and high pressure to the southwest will tend to send more tropical air into the UK, lifting our temperatures from below average to near or a bit above average. Overnight frosts and hill-snow will gradually become less likely, but there may be a few crisp days and nights. There is a risk that weather systems may bring some very strong winds as well. There is a chance that this strong high pressure over Russia will stick around further into December. If this happens, things will stay cooler with some longer outbreaks of rain and lighter winds. As the days continue to shorten, the chances of snow will increase in the hills and even for lowlands, mainly for Scotland.

Further ahead

How's the weather shaping up as we move closer to Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I've just noticed that the Met Office has issued its first yellow warning of this season for ice. That warning covers the east of Scotland and here in Edinburgh, we are right underneath that.

Furthermore, that warning comes into effect at 7pm this evening, and expected to remain in force until 10am tomorrow morning.

More details of that can be found here.

 

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Monday 18 Nov - Wednesday 27 Nov

A frosty start to Monday with some patchy mist or freezing fog. The rest of the day will be cold and cloudy with some showers across eastern areas, staying largely dry in the west. Despite low confidence in this period, the start of next week should be drier and brighter for many but it will be cold. There is a possibility of rain in the west, which may fall as hill snow at times. By the end of next week, there may be a switch to relatively milder conditions with winds becoming more southerly. Further rain and strong winds look to continue in western areas initially with a risk of snow on higher ground. Meanwhile further east, drier and more settled weather is expected.

Thursday 28 Nov - Thursday 12 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possible gales in the west. Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 19 Nov - Thursday 28 Nov

Heavy rain will spread eastwards across Wales and parts of southern and central England through Tuesday, though northern and eastern areas should remain mostly dry and bright through the day. Towards the end of the week it should turn milder with a risk of prolonged rain likely across western parts with the possibility of some transient hill snow. There is also a risk strong winds and coastal gales. Towards the end of the period strong winds and coastal gales accomanined by rain may continue across western areas with more settled conditions likely to develop in eastern parts. This would bring a risk of frost and fog developing overnight across eastern parts and possibly more widespread later.

Thursday 28 Nov - Thursday 12 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possible gales in the west. Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 20 Nov - Friday 29 Nov

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is a greater than normal chance of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Saturday 30 Nov - Saturday 14 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Anyone know when the met office contingency planners forecast is released?

Here you go.

Signals from today's #metoffice seasonal forecast update:

1. Ongoing very #mild trend
2. More likely wetter than drier
3. Associated signal of W'ly dominated airstreams due to lower #pressure than normal to our N, higher to S
4. Hint though of cooler than normal SSTs to our W pic.twitter.com/JsQJSPhRDH

— marco petagna (@Petagna) November 15, 2019

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Probably not for a week or two as the last one was issued on the 24th of October. Here is the temperature one https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf 

 

It will be available here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index 

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I'd take this with a pinch of salt to be honest, just as I would if they were suggesting the opposite.

As was mentioned by someone in the model output thread, the MetO appear to have been somewhat off-base wrt their predictions for temperatures during this autumn. After an above-average September, October turned out to be slightly below-average and November looks to be going the same way unless their is a major change in the last week or so of the month.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder than recently but staying wet and breezy

_________________________________

Saturday 16 November – Sunday 24 November

Often unsettled but slowly turning milder

This weekend, much of the UK will see a lot of cloud together with showery outbreaks of rain. The best of any lengthier periods of dry weather will be over Northern Ireland, western Scotland and southeast England where a few brighter intervals are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for many areas this weekend but Scotland will be rather cold. Drier and brighter but chillier weather is likely to develop for a time early next week as a high pressure ridge topples in from the north-west. A widespread frost is possible on Monday night

A slow recovery in temperatures is then expected through the middle to latter part of next week as chilly northerly winds give way to milder south or south-easterlies. However, it is likely to become more unsettled again with outbreaks of rain spreading from the west. It looks like western and south-western parts of the UK will have the most prolonged rainfall with a risk of localised flooding. Further east and north across the UK, there should also be some rain at times but with lower rainfall totals.

There is a slight risk that colder air lingers or returns to northern areas of the UK but, at present, we expect milder air to make inroads northwards through the week.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 1 December

Wet and breezy at times but quite mild

November is expected to end on a damp and breezy theme. Low pressure areas are likely to be often centred somewhere to the west of the UK, bringing bands of rain and showers at times. Brisk southerly winds are expected at times too. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be above average, with western areas wettest and windiest. Temperatures should be often near or a little above the seasonal average. Therefore, the risk of snow looks to be quite supressed. Night frosts should be infrequent. There is a slight chance that high pressure ends up being nearer to the east of the UK than expected, which would bring a drier week for the east.

Monday 2 December – Sunday 15 December

Quite mild but wet. Potentially turning windy

Indications are for the first half of December to be influenced by low pressure systems. These low pressure areas likely to bring wet and breezy conditions at times, initially most frequent over western parts of the UK. By the second week of December, there are signs of more widespread wet weather with the potential for strong winds at times as low pressure areas pass to the north of the UK. However, it should stay fairly mild with temperatures often alternating between average and above average. However, there is a chance that high pressure remains nearer to the south of the UK than expected, which would bring drier and calmer conditions to the south and east, in particular.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see whether confidence has increased for an unsettled but milder outlook. Will the weather stay wet and breezy for the General Election week?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 21 Nov - Saturday 30 Nov

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is an above average risk of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Sunday 1 Dec - Sunday 15 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

So...

Often Unsettled and turning milder.

Wet and breezy at times and mild.

Quite mild but wet and turning windy....

Ok then!😂😆

 

So big changes in our weather I see.. or am I only the one thinking they have the same forecast for the next month..all they have done is just 're worded it.🙄. And the fact they stress 'turning more unsettled'. As if it hasn't already been 'Unsettled enough. 

Also they said first half of December will be influenced by low pressure systems. And 2nd week there will be more widespread wet weather.

Whats the difference? 

 

 

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Friday 22 Nov - Sunday 1 Dec

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is an above average risk of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Monday 2 Dec - Monday 16 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/